Feb 23 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended mostly higher Monday as technology stocks in Taipei and Seoul jumped again, Hong Kong stocks surged on Trump's tariff reversal, but Australia markets fell as US futures turned lower. India is also trading higher. Mainland China and Japan closed for a holiday. US futures marked lower, Europe opened with losses. US dollar lower but few Asia currencies taking advantage with AUD paring gains and the yen weaker. Treasury yields higher at the short end, lower at the long. Crude futures lower, precious metals noticeably higher. Base metals down. Cryptocurrencies lower but off troughs.
Asia equities reacting mostly positively to late Friday's Scotus decision to overturn President Trump's signature tariff policy, and his subsequent declaration of a 10%, then 15%, global tariff rate. Analysts noted evidence of rotation out of US equities into emerging markets and China-based technology sectors in particular with many of Friday's losses on the Hang Seng more than pared. Taiwan stocks higher as they caught up with a prolonged holiday, South Korea also at a fresh record high but were well off their highs by the close. Southeast Asia benchmarks also notably higher as it is seen as a net gainer from the tariff uncertainty
Risk-averse assets also outperformed as the US miliary build up in the gulf continues with last ditch talks planned for later this week. Precious metals all higher, although crude prices dipped on comments from Iran that a diplomatic solution was still possible. Cryptocurrencies down sharply amid reports of large-scale liquidations and risk-off trades.
In regional developments, Asia capitals reacted with caution to Trump's supreme court defeat and subsequent imposition of a 15% global tariff. Most responses centered around requests for clarity from Washington although it was notable that India cancelled a US trip to finalize its trade deal. Elsewhere, South Korea exports rose 23.5% y/y in the first 20 days of February as demand for chips continued unabated. Thailand exports jumped more than 24% y/y in January, much higher than anticipated. Singapore inflation rose to 1.4%, its highest in more than a year. New Zealand Q4 retail sales growth beat expectations but still slowed from Q3's growth. RBI meeting minutes showed little appetite for a rate cut until a new GDP data series beds in.
Hong Kong-listed Tencent (9961.HK), Alibaba (9988.HK) and Trip.com (9961.HK) among the internet-based stocks higher on US tariff overturn. Meituan (3690.HK) and JD.com (9618.HK) among stocks higher on data showing consumption rising solidly over LNY holiday. IDFC First Bank (539437.IN) said it is investigating a $65M fraud within the accounts of several government entities.
Digest:
Trump increases global tariff rate to 10% then 15%, trade deals face uncertainty:
US President Trump announced an increase in global tariffs to 15%, a day after setting a 10% rate in response to the Supreme Court ruling against the president's use of IEEPA as a basis for tariff hikes. While effective immediately, Trump signaled the administration will determine and issue the new tariffs over the "next short number of months." With no other details, bulk of narrative so far remains based on the earlier 10% announcement for which the White House published a fact sheet. Court ruling did not address tariff refunds, leaving the matter to lower courts with Bloomberg estimating a total exposure of up $170B, more than half the revenue raised under Trump tariffs. Reuters counted more than 1,800 tariff-related suits have been filed with US Court of International Trade since April vs less than two dozen cases in all of 2024. Attention quickly shifted to the implications for trade deals with major trading partners. USTR Greer told CBS's "Face the Nation" that deals will stand, and counterparties are expected to honor them. EU will propose freezing ratification of its trade deal until US provides clarity (Bloomberg). India said to postpone a US trip set for this week (Bloomberg). Japan LDP policy chief Onodera said on a Fuji TV program that reimbursements would be a "matter of course" (Nikkei) while a front-page Nikkei article Sunday suggested Japan will still continue with US investments. Commenting on the SCOTUS ruling, China Commerce Ministry reiterated opposition to unilateral tariffs as a principle and will closely monitor developments (Xinhua). White House confirmed Trump will travel to China from 31-Mar to 2-Apr (Reuters). Global Times piece was based on the NYT report and noted a global flat rate would actually lower tariffs for countries such as China, Vietnam, India and Brazil, while going higher for UK and Australia.
Asia capitals respond with caution to Trump's Scotus defeat:
Many Asia capitals responded with wait-and-see approach to Scotus' strike down of Trump's tariff program, subsequent declaration of 15% tariff for next 150 days. Seoul said would continue to hold 'amicable' consultations with US to ensure export conditions agreed upon would not be undermined (Yonhap, KoreaHerald). Taiwan President Lai said Taipei closely monitoring White House measures, was prepared for turbulent global trade environment (TaipeiTimes); came just as President Trump also criticized Taiwan for undermining US chip sector (SCMP). Singapore, which had 10% tariff rate, said would seek clarity from US counterparts; deputy PM Gan said may be difficult to negotiate exemptions, will have to observe what happens after 150-day limit expires (StraitsTimes). Economists said Malaysia stands to gain from decision but noted tariffs still subject to political change (NewStraitsTimes). Indonesia President Prabowo said government ready for all possibilities, having signed 19% tariff agreement on same day as Scotus decision (Reuters).
BOK set to raise FY GDP outlook on chip export boom, resilient global economy:
Bank of Korea governor Rhee said South Korea economy expected to expand markedly in FY26 on continued semiconductor upcycle, better-than-expected global economic strength. Said domestic economy recovered on back of solid consumer sentiment, increased exports (Yonhap). Rhee told parliament chip upcycle proving more robust than previous upswings, likely to remain strong through year. In November, BOK said FY26 GDP would be 1.8%, economists cited by Bloomberg said this could rise to 2.0% to almost double growth rate from 2025 despite uncertainties caused by tariff policy, pace of AI investment. BOK will formerly post updated forecast this Thursday alongside rate decision at which economists forecast no change. Separate data Monday showed exports expanded 23.5% y/y in first 20 days of February (Yonhap). Shipments reached $43.5B while imports increased 11.7% to $48.6B to give $4.9B surplus; semiconductor shipments grew 134% y/y.
China's tech platforms losing favor as pure-play AI names outperform:
China tech and AI sentiment has been mostly positive in 2026, but performance has been uneven with Hang Seng Tech index down 6% month-to-date (SCMP). Tencent (700.HK) and Alibaba (9988.HK) among biggest drags, down 11% and 10% respectively. Underperformance has contrasted with huge gains in recently listed AI startups like Zhipu (2513.HK) and MiniMax (100.HK), up 153% and 85% month-to-date. Performance divergence put down to shift in investor preference for pure-play AI names with sell-side firms highlighting strong expectations for revenue growth in coming years (Bloomberg). Firms benefiting from state-backed support and limited competition from foreign rivals while recent LLM releases have generated a lot of hype with Zhipu's GLM-5, Moonshot's Kimi and Minimax's M2-5 among highest ranking open-source models according to Artificial Analysis. Conversely, China's big platforms appear to lost favor with index heavyweights like Tencent facing scrutiny over impact on profitability of aggressive competitive practices. Alibaba has failed to capitalize on Qwen 3.5 release. Delivery service providers like Meituan (3690.HK) remain captive to an industry price war that has drawn repeated regulatory warnings.
Foreign investors have been the main buyers of superlong JGBs:
As press continues to debate the reasons behind surprising strength in JGBs since the election campaign, Nikkei highlighted JSDA data on OTC trading showed foreign investors were the standout with net purchases of JPY6.04T ($39B) in January, marking the second largest amount since Mar-23 in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank failure. Ultralongs made up JPY2.17T, extending the buying streak to 13 months, tied for the record in 2012-13 around the launch of BOJ's massive easing program. Amid JGB volatility during January over concerns about Takaichi's fiscal policy, foreign buyers were attracted by higher yields and this dynamic appears to have continued since the LDP's sweeping election victory on 8-Feb. Friday saw 40y yields touching a three-month low 3.54% while 10y hit 2.09%, lowest since early January. Cited sanguine views on fiscal policy to explain buying motivation. Among domestics, trust banks (largely reflecting pension funds) were the only notable buyers in January -- net JPY813.1B in superlongs. Insurers were net sellers (JPY721.8B) for the sixth straight month as they roll into newer issues with higher interest rates. Regional banks sold a record JPY401.6B as losses forced position closures. Article noted some views that recent calm in markets just reflects temporary improvement in the supply-demand balance as reduced political uncertainty since the election has lowered the bar for purchases in preparation for fiscal year-end in March. Increased share of turnover among actively trading foreign investors portends further volatility. Government credibility with markets stands as the key factor and failure to meet expectations could trigger another surge in yields.
Notable Gainers:
+23.5% 012510.KS (DOUZONE BIZON): EQT to launch tender offer for remaining 18.2M DOUZONE BIZON shares at KRW120,000/share
+10% 2327.TT (Yageo): Murata reportedly intends to raise MLCC prices
+5.3% 3690.HK (Meituan): US Supreme Court rules against President Trump's assertion of broad tariff authority
+2.8% 005380.KS (Hyundai Motor): US Supreme Court rules against President Trump's assertion of broad tariff authority
Notable Decliners:
-15.8% 539437.IN (IDFC First Bank): detects potential fraud of INR5.9B at Chandigarh branch involving Haryana government accounts
-5.2% 348370.KS (Enchem): reports FY operating profit (KRW68.45B) vs year-ago (KRW65.33B)
Data:
Economic:
Singapore January
CPI y/y +1.4% versus consensus +1.4% and +1.2% in prior month
New Zealand Q4
Retail sales +0.9% q/q vs consensus +0.6% and +1.9% in Q3
Markets:
Nikkei: Closed
Hang Seng: 668.56 or +2.53% to 27081.91
Shanghai Composite: Closed
Shenzhen Composite: Closed
ASX200: (55.40) or (0.61%) to 9026.00
KOSPI: 37.56 or +0.65% to 5846.09
SENSEX: 319.81 or +0.39% to 83134.52
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.44) or (0.28%) to 154.6080
$-KRW: (5.97) or (0.41%) to 1439.2000
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.08%) to 0.7078
$-INR: +0.05 or +0.06% to 90.7767
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 6.9078
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