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StreetAccount Summary - EU Market Recap: FTSE 100 (1.20%) to 10780.11, DAX (2.56%) to 24638.00, CAC40 (2.17%) to 8394.32, STOXX 600 (1.61%) to 623.63

Mar 02 ,2026

  • Synopsis:

    • European equity markets closed sharply lower Monday amid heightened geopolitical tensions following US and Israeli military strikes on Iran. Follows last week's positive close, which saw new record levels for Stoxx Europe 600, FTSE 100 and CAC 40.

    • Meanwhile, US equities well off worst levels following first back-to-back expansionary ISM manufacturing readings since September 2022. This dynamic driving a bounce in some cyclical pockets of the market and helping to shift some of the focus back to the stable macro backdrop/run-it-hot White House strategy narrative. Market also seems to be cushioned by the latest flurry of commentary about how US equities have historically ignored geopolitics. However, still a lot of uncertainty about severity and duration of the attacks in Iran, particularly when it comes to concerns about an oil shock.

    • Oil was sharply higher with WTI crude +6.13% to $71.13/bbl. Gas prices soared as Iranian attacks forced shutdown of Qatari production. Gold and silver gained. Industrial metals were firmer.

    • US and Israel launched air strikes against Iran that targeted military assets, government and IRGC facilities and missile bases, killing Supreme Leader Khamanei and several high-level officials. Trump optimistic about war's progress, mentioning offramps and claiming Iran's new leaders in talks. Iran widened retaliation to Gulf states, resulting in airport shutdowns. Conflict also disrupted shipping through Strait of Hormuz though oil price impact subject to multiple variables.

    • European Travel & Leisure sector worst performing sector after travel chaos extended through the Middle East and beyond, causing major disruptions at some of the world's busiest airports; hundreds more flights cancelled on Monday. Cyclicals also seeing notable weakness with retail, banks and auto/parts underperforming. Shipping names also in focus. Energy and defense stocks outperformed.

    • Several European macro releases out. Early on German retail sales missed expectations. Survey by UK Institute of Directors downbeat in contrast to LLoyds business barometer and firmer PMI. CBI private sector growth indicator weak, yet some signs of stabilization. BoE mortgage approval data missed expectations following better UK Nationwide house price update. Final Eurozone manufacturing PMIs unchanged from flash. Final UK manufacturing update revised lower. Data unlikely to have much impact on wider macro narrative with ongoing focus on AI disruption and rotation and geopolitical headwinds.

    • Traders scaled back wagers on interest-rate cuts in UK and Eurozone as the Middle East war drove oil prices higher (Bloomberg). Short-term yields rose more than longer maturities, reflecting increased inflation fears amid Brent crude's biggest surge in four years. Nomura estimates 10% oil price hike could boost HICP inflation by 0.4% directly and 0.2% indirectly over three years. Probability of BoE cut this month dropped to 64% from over 80%, with markets no longer expecting three cuts in 2026. Markets still see a 25% chance of an ECB cut by year-end. Analysts question the duration of the disruption noting it could test or delay the expected upcoming BoE cut, despite UK macro weakness.

    • Looking ahead to tomorrow's session, UK Chancellor Reeves will present an official update on the economy and public finances on Tuesday at approximately ~12:30 GMT. The spring economic update is widely expected to be very uneventful after Reeves moved to one big fiscal event a year and her intention is to project stability and maintain policy continuity following several months of speculation into the November Budget. There has been some conjecture that Reeves could make a U-turn to student loan repayments. On the earnings/updates agenda, Thales (HO.FP), Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN.SW), ASM International (ASM.NA), Fresnillo (FRES.LN), among those reporting.

  • Digest:

    • Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:

      • Outperformers:

        • Oil & Gas +1.97%, Utilities (0.46%), Telecom (0.80%), Basic Resources (1.16%), Financial Svcs (1.19%), Health Care (1.24%), Ind Goods & Svcs (1.27%)

      • Underperformers:

        • Autos & Parts (4.37%), Retail (3.51%), Travel & Leisure (3.47%), Banks (3.15%), Persnl & HHold Goods (3.12%), Chemicals (1.95%), Media (1.92%), Construct & Mtls (1.83%), Technology (1.81%), Food & Beverage (1.76%), Insurance (1.73%), Real Estate(1.66%)

    • Macro:

      • Geopolitics

        • Trump warns Iran about larger strikes as war spirals in Middle East -- CNN

        • Gas prices soar as Iranian attacks force shutdown of Qatari production - FT

        • Israel strikes at Hezbollah, Kuwait shoots down US jets in error -- Reuters

        • Greece PM will visit Cyprus Tuesday to better coordinate the stance of the two allies as security concerns escalate - ekathimerini

        • Starmer 'stands by' decision not to join in strikes on Iran with US and Israel -- Sky News

        • France to allow temporary deployment of nuclear-armed aircraft to allied countries -- France24; Macron says France will increase size of its nuclear arsenal -- Reuters

        • VLCC forward agreements hint at record spot rates as Iran conflict hits freight market -- Tradewinds

      • UK

        • Rachel Reeves to slow down increase to youth minimum wage -- FT

      • Norway

        • Government wants to equip maritime policy for a new era-- link

    • Company news:

      • Notable Gainers

        • +22.5% LEON.SW (Leonteq CHF13.52, +2.56) -- holder Raiffeisen sells 22.7% stake to H21 Macro Limited and four private investors

        • +11.1% GSP.IM (Gas Plus €6.78, +0.68) -- Middle East escalation; Italgas completes disposal of 100% of ATEM gas assets

        • +8.5% LIME.SS (Lime Technologies SEK197.40, +15.60) -- Dagens Industri buy recommendation

        • +8.2% EQNR.NO (Equinor NOK303.90, +23.00) -- Middle East escalation

        • +8.1% SQZ.LN (Serica Energy £2.58, +0.20) -- Middle East escalation

        • +8.0% VER.AV (Verbund €64.15, +4.80) -- Middle East escalation

        • +7.9% MAERSK.B.DC (Maersk DKK16,915.00, +1,235.00) -- Middle East escalation; operations updates

        • +7.3% GALP.PL (Galp Energia SGPS €19.59, +1.33) -- Middle East escalation; Q4 earnings

        • +7.2% HBR.LN (Harbour Energy £2.70, +0.18) -- Middle East escalation

        • +6.5% VIRI.FP (Viridien €115.10, +7.10) -- Middle East escalation

        • +6.4% HLAG.GR (Hapag-Lloyd €139.10, +8.30) -- Middle East escalation

        • +6.3% DNORD.DC (D/S Norden DKK300.60, +17.80) -- Middle East escalation

        • +6.1% BA.LN (BAE Systems £22.28, +1.29) -- Middle East escalation

        • +5.6% REP.SM (Repsol €20.14, +1.07) -- Middle East escalation

        • +5.5% BNOR.NO (BlueNord NOK541.00, +28.00) -- Middle East esclation

        • +4.2% OMV.AV (OMV €56.70, +2.30) -- Middle East escalation

        • +3.6% ENI.IM (Eni €20.36, +0.71) -- Middle East escalation; JPMorgan upgrade

        • +3.5% BST.IM (Banca Sistema €1.64, +0.06) -- Banca CF+ reaches 70.732% of the share capital (69.047% of the relevant voting rights)

        • +3.1% TTE.FP (TotalEnergies €69.81, +2.08) -- Middle East esclation; JPMorgan upgrade

        • +3.0% YPSN.SW (Ypsomed Holding CHF280.00, +8.00) -- CHF150M share buyback at CHF300

        • +2.9% PHAR.LN (Pharos Energy £0.25, +0.01) -- Middle East escalation

        • +2.5% LDO.IM (Leonardo €59.00, +1.42) -- Middle East escalation

        • +2.1% BP.LN (BP £4.89, +0.10) -- Middle East escalation

        • +1.7% QQ.LN (QinetiQ Group £5.14, +0.09) -- Middle East escalation

        • +1.2% GAM.SW (Gam Holding CHF0.12, -0.00) -- Japan Special Situations files petition for provisional injunction to halt Yutaka Giken share consolidation

        • +0.4% HO.FP (Thales €259.50, +1.00) -- Middle East escalation; Amadeus IT Group considering bid for Idermia's public-security unit - Bloomberg

      • Notable Decliners

        • -23.9% SGF.IM (Sogefi €2.37, -0.73) -- FY earnings

        • -15.5% RHIM.LN (RHI Magnesita £28.50, -5.20) -- FY earnings

        • -13.4% PPH.LN (PPHE Hotel Group £17.52, -2.68) -- Middle East escalation; buy freehold interest in Park Plaza London Waterloo for £147.9M in cash

        • -9.9% TUI1.GR (TUI Group €7.31, -0.80) -- Middle East escalation

        • -9.4% AF.FP (Air France-KLM €11.34, -1.16) -- Middle East escalation; to pay €368M related to Cargo final judgement

        • -8.9% AC.FP (Accor €44.78, -4.38) -- Middle East escalation

        • -8.1% CCL.LN (Carnival £21.46, -1.90) -- Middle East escalation

        • -7.9% DHER.GR (Delivery Hero €18.54, -1.56) -- Middle East escalation

        • -7.2% STLAM.IM (Stellantis €6.48, -0.50) -- Middle East escalation

        • -7.0% SSPG.LN (SSP Group £1.93, -0.14) -- Middle East escalation

        • -6.5% AVOL.SW (Avolta CHF47.38, -3.31) -- Middle East escalation

        • -6.4% GKP.LN (Gulf Keystone Petroleum £1.95, -0.13) -- temporarily shut-in production ops in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

        • -6.2% PUM.GR (Puma €22.40, -1.48) -- Middle East escalation

        • -6.1% WIZZ.LN (Wizz Air Holdings £11.41, -0.74) -- Middle east escalation

        • -5.7% CFR.SW (Richemont CHF148.60, -9.00) -- Middle east escalation

        • -5.6% RBI.AV (Raiffeisen Bank International €39.96, -2.38) -- sells a 22.7% stake in Leonteq AG

        • -5.5% IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group £4.05, -0.23) -- Middle East escalation

        • -5.3% STAN.LN (Standard Chartered £17.19, -0.97) -- Middle East escalation

        • -5.2% LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa €8.63, -0.47) -- Middle East escalation

        • -5.0% RNO.FP (Renault €30.49, -1.62) -- Middle East escalation

        • -4.9% ITX.SM (Inditex €54.40, -2.76) -- Middle East escalation

        • -4.8% SAN.SM (Banco Santander €10.25, -0.52) -- Middle East escalation

        • -4.7% FRVIA.FP (Forvia €11.49, -0.57) -- Middle East escalation

        • -4.4% INF.LN (Informa £7.88, -0.37) -- Middle East escalation

        • -4.3% IWG.LN (International Workplace Group £2.14, -0.10) -- Middle East escalation

        • -4.3% MC.FP (LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton €521.65, -23.60) -- Middle East escalation

        • -4.3% SN.LN (Smith & Nephew £13.20, -0.58) -- FY earnings

        • -4.1% IHG.LN (InterContinental Hotels Group £132.05, -5.70) -- Middle east escalation / InterContinental Hotels Group will co-operate fully with the CMA's inquiries; will not be making any further comment at this time

        • -3.5% BARN.SW (Barry Callebaut CHF1,374.00, -50.00) -- JPMorgan downgrade

        • -3.4% BARC.LN (Barclays £4.33, -0.16) -- MFG, Barrenjoey Capital Partners merger

    • EU companies reporting tomorrow

      • Earnings:

        • Austria: Palfinger (PAL.AV)

        • Benelux: ASM International (ASM.NA), Allfunds Group (ALLFG.NA)

        • Germany: Beiersdorf (BEI.GR), Schaeffler (SHA0.GR),

        • Switzerland: Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN.SW), VAT Group (VACN.SW), SIG Combibloc Group (SIGN.SW), Bucher Industries (BUCN.SW), Forbo Holding (FORN.SW), VP Bank (VPBN.SW), Arbonia (ARBN.SW)

        • France: Thales (HO.FP), Euroapi (EAPI.FP)

        • Nordics: BW LPG (BWLPG.NO), Nordhealth (NORDH.NO)

        • UK: Fresnillo (FRES.LN), Aberdeen Group (ABDN.LN), Inchcape (INCH.LN), International Workplace Group (IWG.LN), Greggs (GRG.LN), Keller Group (KLR.LN), Kier Group (KIE.LN), Johnson Service Group (JSG.LN), XP Power (XPP.LN), Reach (RCH.LN), Synectics (SNX.LN)

      • CMD/Events: Bank of Cyprus Holdings (BOCH.CY), Vanquis Banking Group (VANQ.LN)

  • Data:

    • Economics:

      • Feb manufacturing PMI

        • Netherlands 50.8 vs consensus 51.7, prior 50.1

        • Russia 49.5 vs consensus 49.6, prior 49.4

        • Sweden 56.1 vs consensus 55.4, prior revised 55.9 from 56.0

        • Spain 50.0 vs consensus 49.9, prior 49.2

        • Switzerland 47.4 vs consensus 49.8, prior 48.8

        • Italy 50.6 vs consensus 49.1, prior 48.1

        • France 50.1 vs preliminary 49.9

        • Germany 50.9 vs preliminary 50.7

        • Eurozone 50.8 vs preliminary 50.8

        • Greece 54.4 vs consensus 53.6, prior 54.2

        • UK vs preliminary 52.0

      • Germany Jan retail sales +1.2% y/y vs consensus +1.9%, prior revised +2.5% from +1.5%

      • UK

        • Feb house price index +1.0% y/y vs consensus +0.7%, prior +1.0% - Nationwide

        • Jan mortgage approvals 60.00K vs consensus 62.0K, prior 61.01K

        • Jan M4 money supply (0.1%) vs consensus +0.2%, prior revised +0.4% from +0.3%

      • Switzerland Jan retail sales (1.1%) y/y vs consensus +2.7%, prior revised +2.8% from +2.9%

      • Denmark Jan retail sales +3.8% y/y vs consensus +3.6%, prior revised +3.7% from +3.3%

      • Netherlands Jan retail sales +2.2% y/y vs consensus +4.2%, prior +3.0%

    • Markets:

      • WTI Crude (Apr 26): +$4.11 or +6.13% to $71.13

      • €-$ (0.0080) or (0.68%) to 1.1682

      • £-$ (0.0034) or (0.25%) to 1.3378

      • €-£ (0.0035) to 0.8736

      • S&P 500 (0.06%)

      • Performance year-to-date

        • FTSE 100: +8.55%

        • DAX: +0.60%

        • CAC: +3.00%

        • MIB: +2.97%

        • Stoxx 600: +5.31%

This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
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