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Back to Daily DR Market Summary

StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (3.06%), Hang Seng (1.12%), Shanghai Composite (1.43%) as of 03:10 ET

Mar 03 ,2026

  • Synopsis:

    • Asia equities again on the defensive Tuesday with steep losses in places: South Korea's Kospi fell the most as it marked to market from Monday's action and included some very steep losses in the tech sector. Japan's Topix and Nikkei down sharply as exporters underperformed. Taiwan and Australia also saw heavy losses. Greater China led lower by Shenzhen, Hang Seng erased YTD gains despite a mid-morning rally while Shanghai Composite finished lower after touching a 10-year high at the open. Southeast Asia lower, ex Singapore, which was held up by a handful of tech and defense stocks. India closed for a holiday. US futures steeply lower, Europe opened with across-the-board losses. US dollar higher, Asia currencies lower although yen and offshore yuan flat. Treasury and JGB yields higher across tenors. Crude futures higher. Precious metals a little higher, base metals lower. Cryptocurrencies lower.

    • A second day of broad selling in Asia equities with a distinct underperformance from technology sectors as the US and Israel continued their military strikes against Iran. Iran responding with attacks on the diplomatic compound in Riyadh with other drones shot down by Saudi forces. Crude prices advanced for a second day with Brent hitting $80/bl for the first time in more than a year and LNG prices also higher albeit from a low base. Economists warned India most vulnerable to prolonged closure of Strait of Hormuz while South Korea, Japan and Thailand also exposed.

    • Sector performance in the region continued to polarize as exporters and technology sectors underperformed by some distance while defense and oil stocks outperformed. CNOOC (883.HK) reached a record high Tuesday while there was outperformance in alternative energy related names such as Whitehaven Coal (WHC.AU) and Korea Gas (036460.KS). In the defense sector, Hanwha Aerospace (012450.KS) rose nearly 20% and ST Technologies Engineering (S63.SP) up sharply for a second day while, on the downside, airlines and tourism-related stocks underperformed.

    • In regional developments, RBA Governor Bullock hinted the bank could hike interest rates in March if inflation becomes unanchored. South Korea PMI showed steady if unspectacular expansion in February although employment dipped noticeably; separate data showed household deficits reached a six-year high in 2025. Japan unemployment inched higher to 2.7% to reach an 18-month high and beating estimates; a Japan corporate survey showed stronger-than-expected capex growth in Q4-25.

    • Toyota Fudosan raised its offer for Toyota Industries (6201.JP) to ¥20,600 per share and extended the offer period to 16-Mar. SoftBank's (9984.JP) PayPay could raise up to $1.1B in its US IPO leading to the largest ever corporate listing from Japan in the US. A BlackRock-backed consortium is pushing to complete the purchase of CK Hutchison's (1.HK) ports businesses without the two Panama-based units. BHP Group (BHP.AU) said it saw a limited impact from the Iran conflict for now as most of its output goes to Asia. Magellan Financial (MFG.AU) said it will merge with Barrenjoey, and pivot its business model towards investment banking.

  • Digest:

    • Trump says Iran war could last 4-5 weeks, conflict disrupts energy flows:

      • US and Israel carried out more airstrikes against Iran as war stretched into a third day. War's projected length still uncertain with President Trump repeating 4-5 week timeline while saying it could go longer and vowing to do whatever it takes (Bloomberg). Few visible signs of de-escalation with Trump telling CNN "big wave" of attacks is yet to come, and outlining war aims that include destroying Iran's missile capabilities, their navy, prevent acquisition of nuclear weapon and halt support for terrorist groups (Reuters). Iran's security chief Larijani also struck defiant tone following earlier speculation he was open to talks (NY Times). Market remains sensitive to energy disruption headlines with Strait of Hormuz flows slowing to a trickle, Qatar halting LNG output and Saudi refinery reportedly struck by drone (Reuters). Bloomberg sources said risk of prolonged energy shock motivating UAE and Qatar to privately lobby allies to persuade Trump to find an off-ramp. US also cognizant of energy risk after gas futures surged Monday (Bloomberg). Secretary of State Rubio said that from Tuesday administration will act against rising prices (Reuters). Bloomberg source later said US has no immediate plans to tap SPR.

    • Surging oil prices pose threat to Japan's recovery:

      • Nikkei discussed potential adverse implications of spiking crude oil prices on the Japanese economy. Inflation may well be pushed beyond the BOJ's inflation target while threatening the prospects for a positive turn in real wage growth. Japan imports over 90% of its crude oil and 96% comes from the Middle East, the bulk of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Japan major shipping firms halted journeys through the route after Iran banned passage leaving more than 40 ships including oil tankers waiting in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman (Kyodo). Japan holds 254 days worth of oil reserves, now being eyed on the possibility of protracted conflict (Nikkei). Dai-ichi Life Research Institute recalled prior US strikes on Iran in June triggered a 20% rise in oil prices and projected this phase could drive up prices by as much as 35% to around $90 per barrel. Cautioned that protracted conflict will lead to widespread inflation. A 35% rise would add 0.5 ppt to core CPI inflation, negating a sizable portion of the 0.9 ppt moderation from government energy subsidies and the gasoline surcharge cut. NLI warned that a $100 crude price will disrupt real wage dynamics and drag down GDP by 0.31%. Extended decline in real wages would contribute further to the slump in private consumption and could force the government to take additional measures. While the Takaichi administration is already pushing for a two-year suspension on the consumption tax on food (and then transitioning into a refundable tax credit scheme), additional large-scale stimulus runs the risk of another surge in JGB yields.

    • Japan MOF survey capex beats, labor market data slightly softer:

      • MOF corporate survey ex-software capex rose 7.3% y/y in Q4, above consensus 3.9%, following 2.9% in the previous quarter. Momentum driven entirely by broad growth among nonmanufacturers (real estate, goods rental & lease, info & communications, construction) while manufacturers edged higher (IT equipment tumbled for the second straight quarter). Headline compares favorably to the first preliminary Q4 GDP estimates, which included nominal non-residential investment growth of 4.9% vs 4.0% in Q3. Profits continued to grow, reinforcing positive corporate earnings developments, providing support for the investment pipeline via both stock and flow. Also, recall earnings guidance turned positive in the latest earnings season after starting the year on a negative note. However, transportation equipment continued to log major contractions in operating earnings since the Liberation Day tariff announcements in April. Aggregate sales growth remained mildly positive. While capex headlines bode well for upcoming Q4 GDP revisions after the first print disappointed, private inventories have proven to be an unpredictable X-factor. Separately, unemployment rate ticked higher to 2.7% in January from 2.6% vs consensus 2.6%. Sharp sequential drop in total employment was largely offset by a comparable decline in the labor force, though still left residual rise in unemployed. Job offers to applicants ratio was 1.18 vs consensus 1.19 and down from 1.20 in the prior month. Applications rose for the first time in five months as offers continued to edge lower.

    • RBA Governor Bullock says March meeting 'live', debating acting quicker against inflation:

      • In Q/A remarks following an earlier speech, RBA Governor Bullock said March policy meeting is live and that she would discourage people from thinking central bank only acts on a quarterly basis (Bloomberg). Bullock said with inflation at 3.8% the board will actively debate whether it needs to act quicker. Remarks raised speculation RBA could implement back-to-back rate hikes after market and economists had previously coalesced around expectations of a May rate hike. Following her remark markets pricing in 25% chance of a March rate hike from almost zero beforehand. There was nothing particularly incremental from her prepared remarks, in which she explained part of the reason inflation remains elevated is due to demand exceeding supply. While temporary drivers expected to ease in coming quarters, excess demand expected to leave inflation above target until pressures ease. Noted data since February's rate hike broadly supports that assessment and board remains focused on returning inflation to target. She briefly touched on situation in Middle East, saying it is too early to determine economic impact of Iran conflict given potential for supply shock to stoke inflation and have adverse effect on economic activity.

    • Iran conflict impacts gas market, stoking concerns about inflation:

      • Middle East conflict fanning concerns about energy supply with focus on gas market after Qatar LNG plant that supplies about 20% of global output was struck by Iranian drone, forcing closure (Bloomberg). Gas futures have risen sharply and Bloomberg sources noted offered LNG freight rates in Atlantic Basin have more than tripled in less than a day. About 20% of global LNG also transits through Strait of Hormuz. Asia considered most at risk with Vortexa noting 25% of Asian LNG is supplied through Hormuz. Added that about 80% of Qatar LNG cargoes are bound for Asia with China, India, Taiwan and South Korea the most exposed (Reuters). Much depends on length of Hormuz disruptions and how long Qatar LNG plant remains shut. Goldman Sachs estimated one-month halt to LNG shipments could send Asia spot LNG prices up by 130% (OilPrice). Concerns that an extended shutdown of Qatar LNG will reverberate across energy markets in driving up demand for alternative fuel sources, sending Newcastle coal futures to highest since Dec-2024 (Bloomberg). Ties into broader concerns that a sustained energy supply shock will stoke inflationary pressures, a risk acknowledged by RBA Governor Bullock.

    • Notable Gainers:

      • +19.8% 012450.KS (HANWHA AEROSPACE): South Korean defense trading higher amid US-Iran conflict with market catching up after yesterday's closure; US President Trump gives 4-5 week war timeline (or longer)

      • +14.8% 011200.KS (HMM): South Korean marine transportation trading higher amid US-Iran conflict with market catching up after yesterday's closure; US President Trump gives 4-5 week war timeline (or longer)

      • +9.1% 100.HK (MiniMax Group): reports FY results; revenue $79.0M, +159% vs year-ago $30.5M

      • +8.7% 1860.HK (Mobvista): guides FY adjusted net income $89-99M vs FactSet $90.0M

      • +3.9% 6965.JP (Hamamatsu Photonics KK): Japan photonics sector trading higher as Nvidia to invest $2B in both Coherent and Lumentum

    • Notable Decliners:

      • -19.1% 4506.JP (Sumitomo Pharma): files shelf registration statement for issuance of up to 60.0M new shares

      • -10.3% 003490.KS (KOREAN AIR LINES Co.): South Korean airlines trading lower amid US-Iran conflict with market catching up after yesterday's closure; US President Trump gives 4-5 week war timeline (or longer)

      • -6.4% 9201.JP (Japan Airlines): guides FY; unveils management vision 2035; guides FY30 EBIT ¥300B

      • -5.0% 2593.JP (ITO EN): reports 9M results; operating income ¥15.97B, (10%) vs year-ago ¥17.81B

      • -1.0% 6753.JP (Sharp Corp): acquires Synapse Innovation for ¥3.80B

  • Data:

    • Economic:

      • Japan

        • Q4 MOF corporate survey capex +6.5% y/y vs consensus +3.0% and +2.9% in prior quarter

          • Ex-software capex +7.3% y/y vs consensus +3.9% and +2.9% in prior quarter

        • January unemployment rate 2.7% vs consensus 2.6% and 2.6% in prior month

          • Job offers to applicants ratio 1.18 vs consensus 1.19 vs revised 1.20 in prior month

      • Australia

        • Q4 current account balance ($A21.1B) vs consensus ($A16.5B) and revised (A$18.3B) in Q3

          • Net exports to subtract (0.1) ppt from Q4 GDP vs (0.1) ppt subtraction from Q3 GDP

        • January building approvals (7.2%) m/m vs consensus +5.0% and (14.9%) in December

    • Markets:

      • Nikkei: (1,778.19) or (3.06%) to 56279.05

      • Hang Seng: (291.77) or (1.12%) to 25768.08

      • Shanghai Composite: (59.92) or (1.43%) to 4122.68

      • Shenzhen Composite: (89.05) or (3.24%) to 2655.81

      • ASX200: (123.60) or (1.34%) to 9077.30

      • KOSPI: (452.22) or (7.24%) to 5791.91

      • SENSEX: Closed

    • Currencies:

      • $-¥: +0.03 or +0.02% to 157.3900

      • $-KRW: +17.23 or +1.19% to 1471.2100

      • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.20%) to 0.7081

      • $-INR: +0.43 or +0.47% to 92.0029

      • $-CNY: +0.01 or +0.20% to 6.8963

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