Mar 09 ,2026
Synopsis:
European equity markets ended down but well off earlier lows. Energy the only sector in the black. Defensives also outperforming; airlines, industrials, real estate and resources the big laggards. US equities down in midday trading. Treasuries mixed with the curve flattening; yields up 1-2 bp at the short end (but off earlier highs). 10-year Bund yield up around 4.7bps to 2.909% after hitting its highest level in a year earlier in the day, while yield on the 2-year yield rose ~10.1 bps to 2.410%, a level last seen in September 2024. Dollar index up 0.1%, adding to last week's 1.4% gain, though off best levels. Gold off 0.9%. Silver up 0.7%. Bitcoin futures up 1% WTI crude up 6.2%, well off premarket highs in very volatile trading; earlier moved above $100/barrel for the first time since July 2022.
Another risk-off session against a still-unsettled geopolitical backdrop, with oil's earlier rise above $100/barrel in focus. Still no clarity on relief efforts (G7 finmins said "not there yet" on coordinated stockpile releases; Trump reviewing options to curb oil prices) and nothing in today's headlines pointing to quick resolutions or obvious off-ramps; headlines from the weekend about scenarios involving US ground troops, Iran chose new supreme leader Trump has already spoken against). But while crude has now crested the psychologically important $100 (and one flagged in many analyst scenarios), early-session pessimism seems to have gotten ahead itself and still a lot of talk about geopolitical shocks being dip-buying opportunities, with declines often followed by strength over following months;
In Europe, the energy shock is reinforcing stagflationary concerns, with higher oil and gas prices threatening both growth and inflation outlooks simultaneously. Around half of Europe's jet fuel transits the Strait of Hormuz, with jet fuel prices hitting record highs, impacting airline stocks. Combination of sticky inflation and weaker growth constrains ECB and BoE from easing. Markets on edge, had earlier discounted 2 ECB hikes in 2026, and one BoE hike before reversing course. Today's key European events include ECB board member Cipollone speaking, Eurogroup finance ministers meeting in Brussels. Sentix investor confidence beat expectations, despite falling back into negative territory at -3.1. German industrial output data missed expectations. In Germany, first estimates suggest the center-left Greens did surprisingly well in local Baden-Württemberg elections. UK REC/KPMG jobs data suggested some stabilization in labor markets.
On the reporting front, few updates from DACHs region, including Cosmo Pharmaceuticals (COPN.SW) and GEA Group (G1A.GR) whilst - in M&A news - Lonza Group (LONN.SW) sold its Capsules & Health Ingredients business to Lone Star Funds for CHF 2.3B. In the UK, Clarkson (CKN.LN) released FY earnings while Ferrexpo (FXPO.LN) updated on operations in Ukraine and regarding its Swiss subsidiary.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Oil & Gas +1.35%, Technology (0.10%), Health Care (0.15%), Utilities (0.34%), Banks (0.47%), Insurance (0.54%)
Underperformers:
Real Estate (2.70%), Autos & Parts (2.15%), Retail (2.11%), Travel & Leisure (2.02%), Basic Resources (1.77%), Construct & Mtls (1.71%), Financial Svcs (1.30%), Media (1.22%), Persnl & HHold Goods (1.15%), Chemicals (1.14%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.98%), Telecom (0.91%), Food & Beverage (0.75%)
Macro:
Central Banks:
Geopolitics:
UK:
Germany:
German vice chancellor Klingbeil rejects involvement in Iran conflict, calls it 'not our war' (Politico)
Germany's industry pushes for Japan-style trading house to secure critical raw materials, reduce China dependence (FT)
Greens set to defeat Merz's CDU in key German state election, signaling trouble for chancellor (Bloomberg)
France:
France's far-right National Rally faces key test in municipal elections as path to 2027 presidency (Politico)
France says G-7 "not there yet" on potential release of strategic oil reserves -- Bloomberg
Peripheral markets:
Italy:
Meloni won't quit if Italians vote 'no' to justice referendum (ANSA )
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+18.5% SIGHT.FP (GenSight Biologics €0.11, +0.02) -- update on GS010/LUMEVOQ early access programs and REVISE trial in LHON
+13.7% OHB.GR (OHB SE €257.00, +31.00) -- Airbus Defence and Space mulling joint bid with Rheinmetall and OHB to build Starlink-like internet service for Bundeswehr -- Bloomberg, citing sources
+11.9% ASCN.SW (Ascom Holding CHF5.37, +0.57) -- FY earnings
+10.1% AKER.NO (Aker ASA NOK1,040.00, +95.00) -- raises stake to 27.3% in Nscale Global Holdings
+6.6% LDO.IM (Leonardo €62.48, +3.86) -- Barclays upgrade
+4.2% SAA.LN (M&C Saatchi £1.24, +0.05) -- AdvancedAdvT Limited has no offer plans; £4.5M share buyback programme; CEO resigns
+4.0% FING.B.SS (Fingerprint Cards SEK18.41, +0.71) -- launches AllKey Software Platform
+3.1% NEXI.IM (Nexi SpA €2.87, +0.09) -- Morgan Stanley upgrade
+3.1% TEMN.SW (Temenos CHF75.70, +2.30) -- BofA upgrade
+2.7% EQNR.NO (Equinor NOK325.40, +8.70) -- JV company Smackover Lithium signs commercial offtake agreement with Trafigura Trading
+2.5% CKN.LN (Clarkson £45.15, +1.10) -- FY earnings
Notable Decliners
-37.9% EMGS.NO (Electromagnetic Geoservices NOK0.29, -0.18) -- non-binding term sheet for asset transaction with an undisclosed independent buyer
-10.5% COPN.SW (Cosmo Pharmaceuticals CHF96.10, -11.30) -- FY earnings
-8.7% KMR.LN (Kenmare Resources £2.32, -0.22) -- update on Implementation agreement in Mozambique
-8.3% KETL.LN (Strix Group £0.43, -0.04) -- H1 trading update
-7.9% VOE.AV (Voestalpine €39.06, -3.34) -- JPMorgan downgrade
-7.0% APAM.NA (Aperam €34.74, -2.62) -- JPMorgan downgrade
-2.6% ROG.SW (Roche Holding CHF332.40, -8.80) -- phase III persevERA study results
-0.9% HCM.LN (Hutchmed £2.12, -0.02) -- Ipsen withdraws Tazverik (tazemetostat) in all indications from all markets
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
Benelux: D'Ieteren Group (DIE.BB)
Germany: Volkswagen (VOW3.GR), Hugo Boss (BOSS.GR), Deutsche Beteiligungs (DBAN.GR)
Southern Europe: Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane (INW.IM), Carel Industries (CRL.IM)
Switzerland: Partners Group Holding (PGHN.SW), Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli (LISN.SW), Flughafen Zuerich (FHZN.SW), Galenica (GALE.SW), HUBER+SUHNER (HUBN.SW), Kuros Biosciences (KURN.SW), Sensirion Holding (SENS.SW)
UK: Spirax Group (SPX.LN), Persimmon (PSN.LN), Rotork (ROR.LN), Costain Group (COST.LN), Capita (CPI.LN), dotDigital Group (DOTD.LN), Somero Enterprises (SOM.LN)
CMD/Events: Renault (RNO.FP) strategy day, Repsol (REP.SM), Partners Group Holding (PGHN.SW), HANZA (HANZA.SS)
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Mar Sentix Investor Confidence (3.1) vs consensus (3.1) and prior 4.2
Germany Jan
Industrial Production (0.5%) m/m vs consensus +0.9% and prior revised (1.0%) from (1.9%)
Factory Orders (11.1%) m/m vs consensus (4.2%) and prior revised +6.4% from +7.8%
Norway Feb PPI (9.4%) y/y vs consensus (4.4%) and prior (7.8%)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Apr 26): +$3.90 or +4.29% to $94.80
€-$ +0.0042 or +0.36% to 1.1598
£-$ +0.0053 or +0.40% to 1.3402
€-£ (0.0002) to 0.8655
S&P 500 (0.21%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +3.20%
DAX: (4.41%)
CAC: (2.87%)
MIB: (2.05%)
Stoxx 600: +0.46%
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