Mar 09 ,2026
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly lower, extending last week's losses when the STOXX Europe 600 fell (5.55%). US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz delivered a simultaneous energy, inflation and geopolitical shock to European markets, with Stoxx Europe 600 and FTSE 100 posting the worst weekly performance in a year
Asia equities lower across the board Monday but most trading away from their lows after the FT reported G7 countries are considering a release of crude from their respective strategic reserves. WTI Crude (Apr 26) currently +15.85% to $105.31 (off earlier highs of above $119/bbl). Note that Iraq and Kuwait have begun cutting oil output, adding to earlier liquefied natural gas reductions from Qatar (Reuters ). Iran's Assembly of Experts has chosen Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the country's new supreme leader, according to reports (BBC)
In Germany, the Greens took a narrow lead over Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU in a state election in Baden-Wuerttemberg on Sunday. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has made strong gains in recent years, was in third place. POLITICO notes the vote in Baden-Württemberg is the first of five state elections and numerous local contests to take place across the country over the next several months in what Germans are calling a Superwahljahr ("super election year").
The week ahead sees OPEC/IEA monthly oil market reports, Eurogroup meeting, UK Chancellor and OBR execs answer MPs questions on Spring Statement/economic forecasts, Feb final CPIs from across the region, UK Jan industrial/manufacturing production, trade balance as well as earnings/updates from Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW.GR), CVC Capital Partners (CVC.NA), Generali (G.IM), JCDecaux (DEC.FP), Legal & General Group (LGEN.LN), Persimmon (PSN.LN), Swiss Life Holding (SLHN.SW), Vienna Insurance Group (VIG.AV), Vivendi (VIV.FP) and Volkswagen (VOW3.GR)
European macro data releases out today include Germany Jan industrial production, factory orders, Switzerland Feb consumer confidence - SECO, Eurozone Mar Sentix economic index, Norway Feb PPI
In central banks, ECB's Elderson introductory remarks at 11:30CET at Network for Greening the Financial System annual plenary meeting hosted by the South African Reserve Bank and Denmark central bank's Nødgaard speech at 15:00CET at the Think Tank Europe and F&P Investment Summit. Also Eurogroup meeting, ECB's Cipollone among the participants. In politics, Finland's PM speech/Q+A in Vantaa. Norway's minister of finance Stoltenberg press briefing at 10:15CET on the macroeconomic situation ahead of the government's budget conf. that starts Tue. In the UK, parliamentary committee topics include UK trade with the US, India and EU at 16:00GMT. Elsewhere, it's the first day of trading for Gabler Group (XK4.GR) on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange
Of note, Mon sees markets closed in Russia for Women's Day holiday
Politics/Macro/World News
Geopolitics/oil
UK
German state election
Germany's Greens set to win key state vote in blow to Merz's coalition -- POLITICO
Three uncomfortable truths about the election in Baden-Württemberg -- Handelsblatt
France
France's far-right National Rally faces key test in municipal elections as path to 2027 presidency (Politico)
Top company news
Earnings/updates
COPN.SW (Cosmo Pharmaceuticals) -- reports FY net income (€3.5M) vs FactSet (€0.1M) [5 est, (€5)-3.5M]
G1A.GR (GEA Group) -- reports FY adjusted EBITDA €907.4M vs FactSet €903.8M [15 est, €871-920M] (
Also reporting today
Earnings:
DACHs: Ascom Holding (ASCN.SW), Addex Therapeutics (ADXN.SW)
France: Seche Environnement (SCHP.FP)
Southern Europe: Digital Bros (DIB.IM)
UK: HgCapital Trust (HGT.LN), Clarkson (CKN.LN)
CMD/Events: MERLIN Properties SOCIMI (MRL.SM)
M&A
ENEL.IM (Enel) -- Sembcorp Industries India unit and Hexa Climate Solutions in running for Enel's India renewable business -Mint (05:30 IST / 08:00 SGT / 01:00 CET)
RIO.AU (Rio Tinto) -- pauses sale of its titanium assets as Iran conflict makes it virtually impossible to sell the business to Chinese groups -- The Australian
TEF.SM (Telefonica) -- weighing further acquisitions of UK broadband providers in bid to strengthen Virgin Media O2 and compete with Openreach - FT, citing CEO
HP3A.GR (Ringmetall) -- acquires liner manufacturer Makplast in Turkey; the parties have agreed not to disclose the purchase price
LEMON.FH (Lemonsoft) -- Rite Ventures announces launch of a mandatory public tender offer for the shares in Lemonsoft Oyj
Healthcare
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Roche CEO discusses the company's exposure to US tariffs in an interview with the NZZ
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Roche announces phase III persevERA study in ER-positive advanced breast cancer did not meet its primary objective
HIMS (Hims & Hers Health) -- New partnership between Hims and Novo announced as soon as Monday - Bloomberg
IPN.FP (Ipsen) -- announces it is voluntarily withdrawing Tazverik (tazemetostat) in all indications from all markets
HPHA.GR (Heidelberg Pharma) -- and HealthCare Royalty announce amendment to existing royalty agreement and the participation of Soleus Capital
Other
BBVA.SM (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria) -- announces completion of first tranche of €1.5B buyback program
TRMD.A.DC (TORM Plc) -- SEC filing: SCHEDULE 13D/A (Filed by Oaktree Capital Group Holdings GP, LLC)
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $95.2M, +70.3% y/y - Box Office Mojo
Live Nation antitrust trial begins; Kalshi faces potential class action over Iran ruler death in litigation themes (6-Mar)
Trump says met with defense companies over increasing weapons production -- Truth Social post
US creates $20B shipping reinsurance fund; OpenAI releases new cybersecurity tool in intraday themes (6-Mar)
VirginMedia O2 in advanced talks with VodafoneThree over major commercial broadband deal - London Times
Key rating changes
Upgrades
Barclays upgrades AF.FP, FIA1S.FH, IAG.LN, and LHA.GR
ACS.SM (ACS SA) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
HAG.GR (HENSOLDT) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
NEXI.IM (Nexi SpA) -- to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley
NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro) -- to hold from sell at Danske Bank
SECT.B.SS (Sectra) -- to buy from hold at SEB
TEMN.SW (Temenos) -- to buy from neutral at BofA
YAR.NO (Yara International) -- to buy from hold at Danske Bank
ROCK.B.DC (Rockwool) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
G24.GR (Scout24) -- to buy from neutral at BofA
Downgrades
ZEAL.DC (Zealand Pharma) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
FER.SM (Ferrovial) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
CLTN.SW (Coltene Holding) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
CNA.LN (Centrica) -- to reduce from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
IMI.LN (IMI) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
ORA.FP (Orange) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
SINCH.SS (Sinch) -- to underperform from neutral at BofA
Initiations
NDX1.GR (Nordex) -- market perform at Bernstein
VANQ.LN (Vanquis Banking Group) -- initiated buy at Berenberg
ESSITY.B.SS (Essity) -- re-initiated buy at Handelsbanken
Data
Nikkei (5.20%) to 52728.72
Hang Seng (1.72%) to 25314.25
Shanghai Composite (0.64%) to 4097.88
S&P futures (110.3) vs prior close of 6743.8
€-$ (0.0005) or (0.04%) to 1.1551
$-¥ +0.50 or +0.32% to 158.59
€-¥ +0.50 or +0.27% to 183.17
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