Mar 13 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia stocks ended lower again Friday although most were off their lows by the close. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan led the decliners while Hong Kong, Australia and Singapore saw more modest losses. India trading sharply lower again, Southeast Asia modestly down. US futures reversing earlier gains to now trade lower, Europe seeing losses in opening trades. US dollar spiking in late trade with DXY crossing 100, yen unchanged, yuan weaker, AUD and NZD losing ground. Treasuries mixed, JGB yields higher across tenors. Crude oil futures higher as Brent crosses $102/bl. Precious metals lower, base metals firming with iron ore at a month-long high. Cryptocurrencies higher.
Asia equities followed though from overnight losses on Wall Street and closed mostly lower although strong gaps down at the open were somewhat reversed by the close. Stocks ended a volatile week with broad-based losses however there were pockets of advances, most notably in mainland China while, by sector, there were gains in several regional refineries and defense names. Crude prices steadied although Brent inching higher above $102 amid conflicting messages from Iran over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Increased focus Friday on regional supplies of oil & gas derivative products that feed agriculture, semiconductor and energy markets and which are starting to show signs of strain.
In regional developments, the yen slid to its lowest since Jul-24 and the 10Y JGB yield a month-long high as investors continued to reduce risk however analysts said finmin intervention is unlikely in the short term as the crude-derived weakness does not meet the criteria. Japan also said it would sell oil from its strategic reserve at pre-conflict prices to boost local supplies. Singapore said it is ready to act on the impact of higher crude prices and is also reviewing economic forecasts in wake of the Iran conflict.
BYD (1211.HK) would consider taking over a 'legacy' global automaker, and is additionally considering building a plant in Canada while shelving plans to enter the US market. Stellantis is exploring deals with Xiaomi (1810.HK) and Xpeng (9868.HK) to invest in its European operations. Honda Motor (7267.JP) warned over a $15.7B charge amid its struggles with EVs. Hanwha Aerospace (012450.KS) and Krafton (259960.KS) are considering forming a joint venture to develop physical AI technology. Korean Air Lines (003490.KS) is to acquire an 80% stake in Korean Air Catering and Duty Free Services from Hahn & Co for KRW750B.
Digest:
Asia markets post highly polarizing weekly performances in wake of Iran conflict:
Asia equity markets posted highly uneven weekly performances after sharp spikes in crude prices and subsequent fears over inflation triggered steep selloffs in several sectors and countries, but gains and outperformance in others. The MSCI Asia Pac ex-Japan index down around 2.0% by Friday's close, disguising modest gains in mainland China benchmarks and Singapore and underperformance in Japan, India, Indonesia and the Philippines. The Hang Seng is 1.3% lower and Australia's ASX also saw only modest declines. By sector, performances were also uneven: Hong Kong's China-based oil & gas names rose as did many of its IT & internet stocks; Australia-based energy names and Japan's trading houses also outperformed; South Korea, Japan and Singapore defense performed well too. On downside, notable underperformance in Japanese and Korean automakers, Hong Kong property and consumption stocks, while airline stocks continued to slide.
Brent crude prices hover at $100 as Tehran vows to keep Hormuz shut:
Brent crude prices continued to trade just above $100/bl Friday with WTI contracts around $95/bl after Tehran's new leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed to international shipping. Economists warned oil and gas market volatility likely to continue in near term until waterway reopens. Overnight, US Treasury gave second authorization for oil buyers to acquire Russian oil already in transit to ease pressure on prices; US Treasury Secretary Bessent said permission was 'narrowly tailored', short term and would not provide significant benefit to Moscow (Bloomberg). Despite Khamenei's pledge on Hormuz, Iran's UN ambassador said Tehran not going to close Strait but it was country's right to 'preserve security of waterway', blamed US for destabilizing region (Reuters). Closure of passage leading to fears over oil & gas downstream product shortages including nitrogen used in fertilisers (FT), helium used in semiconductor production (Reuters), diesel used in heating oil(Bloomberg).
Trump-Xi summit agenda coming together:
Bloomberg reported the framework for the Trump-Xi summit set to be hashed out this weekend as negotiators meet to discuss thorny issues such as tariffs, fentanyl and Taiwan. Treasury Secretary Bessent, UTSR Greer will meet China Vice Premier He Lifeng in Paris on Sunday and Monday to map out deliverables for the leaders' summit slated for March 31 to April 2 in Beijing. Other issues include the potential for Chinese investment in the US and exports of advanced semiconductors. Beijing, seeking to stabilize bilateral relations, has yet to back out of the summit despite condemning Trump's war on Iran. China's leverage with rare earths giving Washington a strong incentive to avoid any blowup in talks. Paris negotiations looked to as a barometer of the potential scope for deals when Trump and Xi meet. Follows concerns from some Chinese officials the last-minute planning may limit deliverables. A lot of attention on discourse over tariffs and especially US arms sales to Taiwan. Prospective corporate deals still unknown, though sources indicated many US companies have submitted proposals.
FX discussions indicate current yen dynamics don't meet the conditions for intervention:
Nikkei discussed prospects for yen intervention as USD/JPY approaches the key threshold of 160. However, article noted market participants are largely unconcerned the government will act reflecting a growing view among traders the crude-oil driven yen weakness does not meet the criteria for intervention, defined by excess volatility or disorderly movements. Recalled depreciation to 161.90 area in Jul-24 prompted authorities to intervene last time and market has long viewed key levels of 160 and 162 as key thresholds. Yet, some view intervention as unlikely under current conditions. Cited thoughts that MOF will stick to verbal intervention without following through. First debate surrounds the 'disorderly movement' condition and crude oil provides a legitimate basis for yen fluctuations. Second front is whether moves are driven by speculators and evidence is inconclusive. CFTC data shows non-commercial sector held moderate net short yen positions as of 3-Mar, paling in comparison to historic levels of more than 180K around Jul-24. While 2024 intervention was effective in triggering a reversal of elevated short yen positions, action now won't have the same impact. Story also noted some debate about whether current volatility can be deemed as excess with variance relatively lower than prior episodes under certain calculations.
Honda FY guidance slashed to net loss amid EV struggles:
Honda (7267.JP) selling off Friday in line with ADRs overnight after a post-close guidance update that projected an FY net loss range of JPY420B-690B, notably downgraded from prior net profit of JPY300B and deviating further from FactSet consensus JPY467.5B. Signaled total impairments of up to JPY2.5T ($15.7B) from its EV segment with up to JPY1.3T to be booked this year (Nikkei). This would mark the first net loss since going public in 1957. Revenue projection remained at JPY21.1T. Statement cited decision to cancel the market launch and development of certain EV models that had been planned for production in North America. Called an emergency news conference after the statement acknowledged deteriorating profitability in the auto business primarily due to changes in ICE and hybrid EV categories caused by the US government policy shift, including tariffs imposed by President Trump. Also blamed a decline in the competitiveness of Honda products in Asia, as more resources were devoted to developing EVs. Warned of dramatic shifts in the business environment and the outlook remains uncertain. In response to impairments in EVs, now plans to streamline its lineup while strengthening hybrid offerings.
Notable Gainers:
+8.2% 259960.KS (KRAFTON): to form JV with Hanwha Aerospace for physical AI
+2.0% 6454.JP (Max Co.): ValueAct Japan discloses 7.3% stake
+0.2% 003490.KS (KOREAN AIR LINES Co.): to acquire 80% stake in Korean Air Catering & Duty Free Services from Hahn & Co. Air Service Holdings for KRW750B
Notable Decliners:
-6.4% 66.HK (MTR Corp.): reports FY results; revenue HK$55.47B vs FactSet HK$58.44B
-5.6% 7267.JP (Honda Motor): amid EV struggles, company guides FY net income attributable (¥690.00-420.00B) vs prior guidance ¥300.00B and FactSet ¥467.46B
-5.1% 293.HK (Cathay Pacific Airways): Swire Pacific launches Cathay Pacific share placing of 153.1M shares at HK$11.74/share
-1.3% 6088.HK (FIT Hon Teng): reports FY results
-0.9% 6963.JP (ROHM Co.): responds to media reports on integrating power semiconductor businesses with Toshiba; confirms discussions with Toshiba and Japan Industrial Partners since Jul-24 on strengthening semiconductor collaboration, including a possible capital alliance
-0.3% 688256.CH (Cambricon Technologies): confirms prelim. FY results announced on 27-Feb
Data:
Economic:
No economic data today
Markets:
Nikkei: (633.35) or (1.16%) to 53819.61
Hang Seng: (251.16) or (0.98%) to 25465.60
Shanghai Composite: (33.65) or (0.82%) to 4095.45
Shenzhen Composite: (23.94) or (0.88%) to 2701.41
ASX200: (11.90) or (0.14%) to 8617.10
KOSPI: (96.01) or (1.72%) to 5487.24
SENSEX: (1,481.78) or (1.95%) to 74552.64
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.04 or +0.02% to 159.3850
$-KRW: +4.72 or +0.32% to 1497.9420
A$-$: (0.01) or (0.86%) to 0.7017
$-INR: +0.12 or +0.13% to 92.4589
$-CNY: +0.03 or +0.44% to 6.8990
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