Mar 16 ,2026
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly higher after last week's losses; Stoxx Europe 600 ended down (0.5%) in a volatile week with European equity market swings contingent on oil. IEA's record 400M barrel strategic reserve release failed to calm markets.
Iran conflict enters third week. President Trump announced US struck targets on Iran's main oil export terminal, Kharg Island, which predominantly ships to China (Bloomberg). Trump spared oil facilities but will reconsider if Iran interfered with safe passage through Strait of Hormuz and later told NBC News may hit Kharg again "just for fun." Strait of Hormuz situation fluid after Trump said US would coordinate with other countries to alleviate blockage and told NBC several nations committed to idea. Media sources added White House expected to announce multiple countries agreed to form coalition to escort ships through Strait though talks ongoing whether this will take place before or after conflict ends. Sources told euronews EU foreign ministers meeting Monday to discuss extending naval mission to Hormuz. Tehran also giving conflicting signals after Foreign Minister Araghchi said Strait open for every country except US and Israel (NY Post), which may fit with reports about countries negotiating carve-outs (FT, FT). Prospect of a negotiated end uncertain after Trump said Iran wants to make a deal but terms aren't to his liking. Iran again dismissed notion of ceasefire while Pentagon and Israel see war extending few more weeks (CNN, Bloomberg).
Asian equities mixed Monday. Benchmarks off worst levels with losses moderating in Japan, South Korea advancing on rally in memory chip giants. Tech/AI stocks also contributing to strength in Hong Kong while mainland China remains lower. S&P 500 futures advancing. Crude erased initial rally on Kharg Island headlines. Silver and gold extending recent declines. Bitcoin higher. China Jan-Feb activity data better-than-feared with retail sales growth surprising higher amid extended LNY holiday. Industrial production grew at fastest pace since Sep-2025. Fixed asset investment turned positive following run of declines, aided by growth in manufacturing and infrastructure while real estate investment contraction unexpectedly narrowed sharply. Other property metrics were more subdued with new home price declines quickening on a y/y basis and new construction starts continuing to drop by over 20%. Elsewhere, Trump introduced some doubt about Xi summit taking place later this month, telling FT meeting could be delayed as he demands answer from China about assisting with unblocking Strait of Hormuz flows. Follows first day of talks involving Treasury Secretary Bessent, USTR Greer and China Vice Premier He Lifeng that were described as "remarkably stable". Sources said China signaled openness to increasing purchases of some agricultural goods while US pressing Beijing to boost purchases of energy and BA aircraft. Talks continue Monday.
In European developments, France's local elections saw low voter turnout and gains for the far-right, while in Spain, Prime Minister Sánchez's Socialists outperformed expectations, finishing a strong second in regional polls. In the UK, average new seller house prices rose seasonally, but consumer sentiment is increasingly divided along political lines, with only supporters of Labour's Keir Starmer optimistic; Starmer is also proposing a plan to help with heating oil costs. Meanwhile, in Switzerland, voters backed the introduction of a new wealth tax targeting the richest residents.
In central banks, Latvia central bank's Brikše gives an interview to LTV's 'Morning Panorama' whilst Bundesbank's Köhler-Geib discussion at 15:30CET at OECD event title 'Future of Finance'. On the political front, meetings of EU foreign and energy ministers, EU's Šefčovič, Lahbib participate in the former and Jørgensen in the latter. There are political discussions in Brussels on the further development of the EU's climate and environmental policy. In the afternoon, Chancellor Merz hosts Belgium's new PM Jetten, with talks focusing on bilateral cooperation as well as current foreign and European policy issues. A joint press conf. is planned after the meeting. In the UK, there are MP questions on defence at 14:30GMT, whilst committee topics include regulating for growth at 15:30. Norway's minister of fisheries and oceans Næss continues visit to Washington and Boston (through Tue), with among other things, political meetings and meetings with Norwegian business. Government minister including for Eide, Bergmål and Aukrust attend the National Council meeting of the Labour Party (through Tue). 7th EU-UK Parliamentary Partnership Assembly at 14:30CET. WEF Industry Strategy Meeting (through Tue).
Politics/Macro/World News
Geopolitics
Donald Trump warns Nato faces 'very bad future' if allies fail to help US in Iran -- FT
France
Low turnout and far-right gains mark first round of France's local elections -- RFI
Spain
Sánchez's Socialists defy the polls to finish strong second in regional vote -- POLITICO
UK
Switzerland
Swiss Back a New Wealth Tax on the Richest Residents in Poll -- Bloomberg
Top company news
Earnings/updates
TECN.SW (Tecan Group) -- reports FY net income (CHF110.7M) vs year-ago CHF67.7M
HYQ.GR Hypoport reports FY EPS €3.87 vs FactSet €3.34 [5 est, €2.99-3.89]; revenue, , gross profit and EBIT in line with prelims (
Also reporting today
Earnings:
DACHs: StarragTornos Group (STGN.SW)
France: Valneva (VLA.FP)
Southern Europe: NewPrinces (NWL.IM), Aeroporto Guglielmo Marconi di Bologna (ADB.IM)
UK: Standard Life (SDLF.LN), SigmaRoc (SRC.LN), Marshalls (MSLH.LN), Beeks Financial Cloud Group (BKS.LN)
Traffic: Aeroport de Paris (ADP.FP)
CMD/Events: Tecan Group (TECN.SW), Andritz (ANDR.AV) investor meeting (Oxcap Analytics), PCI Biotech Holding (PCIB.NO) EGM, Volkswagen Group Mobility (VOW.GR) annual press conf.
M&A
CBK.GR (Commerzbank) -- UniCredit launches voluntary exchange offer to exceed 30% stake thresold in Commerzbank
ANZ.AU (ANZ Group) -- to progress with buying out Worldline stake in merchant payments JV -- The Australian
DNO.NO (DNO ASA) -- DNO brings forward Norway production through multi-asset Equinor swap
MUX.GR (Mutares SE & Co KGaA) -- Mutares SE & Co KGaA signs agreement to sell Relobus to Infracapital; terms undisclosed
US to receive $10B from investors as part of TikTok deal - NYT
Healthcare
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- announces Cosentyx receives FDA approval for pediatric patients aged 12+ with moderate to severe hidradenitis suppurativa
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Roche receives CE mark for first IVD immunoassay blood test to identify carriers of ApoE4
ROG.SW (Roche Holding) -- Roche announces existing non-voting equity securities, Genussscheine, will have their last trading day on the SIX Swiss Exchange today
GALD.SW (Galderma Group) -- EQT AB confirms it completes final sell-down in Galderma
IDIA.SW (Idorsia) -- announces CEO Srishti Gupta to step down
OSE.FP (OSE Immunotherapeutics) -- FDA grants orphan drug designation to Veloxis Pharmaceuticals for prophylaxis of heart allograft rejection in patients receiving a heart transplant
Other
SOI.FP (SOITEC) -- and NSIG to agree extension of licensing framework
CRH.LN (CRH) -- to delist from London Stock Exchange
DEC.LN (Diversified Energy Co.) -- SEC filing: SCHEDULE 13D/A (Filed by EIG Energy Fund XVI, L.P.)
NESTE.FH (Neste) -- warns EU's sustainable aviation fuel market could descend into price war with China; calls for level playing field - FT, citing CEO
KINV.B.SS (Kinnevik) -- Kinnevikdirector Rubin Ritter appointed interim CEO, effective immediately
SALM.NO (Salmar) -- receives conversion of development permits on ~6.1Kt of biomass
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $83.4M, +59.9% y/y - Box Office Mojo
States push for mistrial in Live Nation case after objection to DOJ settlement in litigation themes (13-Mar)
Key rating changes
Upgrades
Morgan Stanley upgrades HMSO.LN, MRL.SM, SGRO.LN; downgrades BYG.LN, LMP.LN
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- to buy from neutral at UBS
RKT.LN (Reckitt Benckiser) -- to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
SVS.LN (Savills) -- to buy from add at Peel Hunt
CARL.B.DC (Carlsberg) -- to buy from hold at Berenberg
RBREW.DC (Royal Unibrew) -- to buy from hold at Berenberg
Downgrades
NG.LN (National Grid) -- to sell from neutral at UBS
BEI.GR (Beiersdorf) -- to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
HEN3.GR (Henkel) -- to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley downgrades BYG.LN, LMP.LN
VOE.AV (Voestalpine) -- downgraded to neutral from outperform at Oddo
Data
Nikkei (0.13%) to 53751.15
Hang Seng +1.46% to 25836.45
Shanghai Composite (0.39%) to 4079.48
S&P futures +40.0 vs prior close of 6636.0
€-$ +0.0009 or +0.08% to 1.1434
$-¥ (0.31) or (0.20%) to 159.23
€-¥ (0.23) or (0.13%) to 182.06
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