Mar 23 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asian equities sharply lower Monday amid escalating Iran crisis. Kospi saw heaviest selloff as intraday trading halt temporarily triggered while Korean won fell to lowest in 17 years against dollar. Greater China, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore all sharply lower. India trading at two-year lows and rupee hit new all-time low. US futures extending Friday declines. Bond markets in focus as global bond yields have risen to highest since May 2024 as US yields hover at highest in months after three consecutive weeks of bond losses. Yields in Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea and India all climbed to recent highs. Dollar stronger against Asian currencies. Crude swinging higher in volatile trade. Gold and silver tumbling and wiping out this year's gains. Bitcoin slightly above $68,000.
Selloff in Asian stocks entered third day and deepened as hopes for early end to war in Iran dashed after Trump gave 48-hour deadline to reopen Strait of Hormuz or US would begin striking Iran's power plants, prompting Tehran to threaten retaliation against Gulf energy, IT and desalination infrastructure. Headlines pointing to widening conflict that keeps market volatility elevated with no clear off-ramp in sight with latest reports that power outages reported in Tehran as Israel launching strikes targeting city's infrastructure. Elevated energy prices have more pronounced effects on bond markets with yields rising sharply as rise in inflation expectations, driving hawkish rate repricing. Markets bracing for Fed and other major central banks may shift to hiking interest rates this year while global growth outlook dims.
In regional macro developments, South Korea President Lee nominated BIS chief economist Shin Hyun-song as next BOK governor. Shin, described as hawkish-leaning, vowed "balanced" policy approach. South Korea trade data for first 20 days of March showed workday-adjusted exports up 40%, driven by another huge increase in semiconductor shipments. Not much new from China Development Forum, where Premier Li Qiang pledged more balanced trade in remarks to global CEOs. PBOC Governor Pan reaffirmed a "moderately loose" policy stance via tools such as RRR and policy rates. Japan top currency official Mimura said government will take all possible steps in response to speculative moves in markets as needed. MAS to update Singapore inflation outlook in April while warns city-state's import cost pressures to pick up in near term.
Berkshire Hathaway to invest JPY287.4B ($1.8B) in Tokio Marine (8766.JP). Tencent (700.HK) launched long-awaited tool, ClawBot, to integrate WeChat with OpenClaw. Local media reported Alibaba's (9988.HK) Damo Academy may unveil major AI chip on Tuesday. Hybe (352820.KS) shares led declines in Korea after BTS's comeback concert drew smaller crowd than expected.
Digest:
US, Iran threaten to escalate conflict, Trump says close to meeting objectives:
Iran conflict threatening to escalate after President Trump gave 48-hour deadline for Tehran to reopen Strait of Hormuz or US would begin striking power plants (Reuters, Bloomberg). Trump's deadline expires Monday evening eastern time. In response Iran threatened to completely close off Hormuz, and attack Gulf energy, IT and desalination infrastructure if Trump carries out strike. Intense fighting continued over weekend after several people injured by Iranian missile strike in Israel and Tehran fired long-range missile towards US-UK military base in Diego Garcia. Israel vowed to significantly intensify bombing of Iranian targets, launching wave of strikes on infrastructure in Tehran. Trump's warning followed earlier off-ramp signals after he posted US getting very close to meeting its objectives (degrading Iranian missile capability, destroying defense industrial base, eliminating Navy and Air Force, preventing nuclear ambitions and protecting Gulf states. Axios sources said US envoys Kushner and Witkoff in talks about conditions for peace and laying groundwork for diplomacy, though US officials still expect 2-3 weeks of additional fighting. Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi told Kyodo Iran not looking for ceasefire, but complete and lasting end to war.
US and allies weigh efforts to reopen Strait of Hormuz:
Signs US allies moving in direction of providing support to reopen Strait of Hormuz. Ambassador to UN Mike Walz told CBS News allies beginning to come around on idea, his comments echoed by NATO Secretary-General Rutte (CBS News). Trump and UK PM Starmer also spoke about need to reopen it (BBC News). Iran continues to deny it has closed Hormuz other than to countries attacking it (Reuters). Iran offered to facilitate passage for Japanese ships, though Japan said it is not considering unilateral talks (Bloomberg). US continues military efforts to try and reopen Hormuz, claiming to have degraded Iran's ability to threaten shipping by striking facility along shoreline used to target vessels (Bloomberg). While Trump last week publicly denied he is sending in troops, NBC News the latest to report troop deployment being considered with options including taking Kharg Island and landing on Hormuz shoreline to help secure strait. Treasury Secretary Bessent told NBC News all options being considered, including Kharg. Situation taking on added urgency with Hormuz tanker traffic at near-standstill while Iranian attacks on Middle East energy facilities fanning concerns about LNG supply to Asia (Bloomberg, FT). In meantime, IEA chief Birol said prepared to release more oil from reserves if necessary (Reuters). US Treasury Department formalized 30-day waiver of sanctions on Iranian crude at sea (CNBC), prompting interest from Asian refiners (Reuters).
Market BOJ April rate hike expectations nudge higher after policy meeting:
Nikkei discussed stronger April rate hike expectations since last week's BOJ meeting after core policy normalization stance was kept intact despite Middle East turmoil. Also, Governor Ueda's signal of forthcoming new data was seen as a signal that board members were preparing for a rate hike. OIS market as of Monday morning implied a ~64% chance of a move in April, edging higher from just below 60% before the March MPM. Takeaways from that meeting leaned hawkish. Article highlighted Ueda remarks that if higher crude oil prices posed a sufficient drag so as to turn GDP growth negative, the MPC would likely see that as temporary and would not have a major impact on the trajectory for underlying inflation, meaning a rate hike would still be possible. After rigorous debate, Ueda suggested there was a slight majority within the MPC who saw more inflation risk that growth risk. New BOJ data will include another core series that excludes impact from government cost of living measures. Ueda indicated publication would be before the summer and gave the impression BOJ was aiming for release as soon as possible. Reuters cited Nomura's suggestion the data could be released as soon as April as preparation for the next hike.
China Development Forum rhetoric reaffirms status quo:
Not much new from key policymaker rhetoric at the China Development Forum in Beijing on Sunday. In a keynote, Premier Li Qiang reasserted China's advocacy for multilateralism, openness and reform while weaving in mentions of "rampant" unilateralism and protectionism, disruption to the international rules-based order, and power politics prevailing with arbitrary and reckless conduct (Xinhua). Repeated long-standing argument that China's competitive advances not derived from subsidies or protection, but rather reforms and innovation. Finance Minister Lan Fo'an reaffirmed China's "proactive fiscal policy" at home though remarks were focused on reassuring businesses the government is working to strengthen international financial cooperation abroad while nurturing a level playing field for domestic corporate activity (Xinhua). Senior official Han Wenxiu also argued that China does not deliberately pursue a trade surplus (Xinhua). PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng reaffirmed a "moderately loose monetary policy" as well as guidance the bank will use a variety of tools, including RRR, policy rates and open market operations. (Xinhua).
BIS chief economist Shin Hyun-song nominated for next BOK Governor:
South Korea President Lee Jae Myung nominated BIS official Shin Hyung-song as the next BOK Governor, set to replace Rhee Chang-yong whose term ends 20-Apr (Reuters). Shin faces a confirmation hearing in parliament, though lawmakers do not have veto power over the president's nomination making the process a formality. In a BOK statement, Shin said he would seek a "balanced" policy approach while acknowledging that market volatility and economic outlook uncertainty has heightened recently on rapid changes in the Middle East situation. Article described Shin as hawkish leaning given many of his prior discussions were about the need for major policy efforts to deleverage surging household debt in order to avoid a financial crisis and curb real estate prices around Seoul. Also cited comments in a report as recently as last week prescribing no monetary policy response to temporary supply shocks. Bloomberg noted other potential candidates were seen to be BOK former senior deputy governor Lee Seung-heon and former deputy governor Suh Young Kyung. Article said Shin's nomination widely viewed as a step to strengthen macro-financial oversight at a time when South Korea's sensitivity to capital flows is rising.
Notable Gainers:
+19.6% 003280.KS (HEUNG-A SHIPPING Co.): company's largest shareholder, Sinokor Merchant Marine, sells 50% stake in tanker unit to MSC
+3.8% 298020.KS (Hyosung TNC): CEO Kim Chi-hyung steps down due to expiration of term, effective 21-Mar
+1.8% 028050.KS (Samsung E&A Co.): corporate value-up plan reveals higher payout ratio and three-year shareholder return policy, and expanding in new energy sectors
+1.3% 4676.JP (Fuji Media Holdings): activist S-Grant increases stake in Fuji Media Holdings to 5.8%
Notable Decliners:
-15.6% 352820.KS (HYBE Co.): Actual crowd size at the BTS Gwanghwamun concert heavily missed the 260K estimate
-10% 600988.CH (Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining): Launches 310.9M H-shares subscription to Zijin Gold at HK$30.19/share; Zijin to become largest shareholder
-8.1% 1378.HK (China Hongqiao Group): reports FY net income attributable CNY22.64B vs guidance CNY17.00-20.00B and FactSet CNY25.57B
-8.1% 4519.JP (Chugai Pharmaceutical): Roche discontinues development of emugrobart in SMA
-5% 2899.HK (Zijin Mining Group): becomes largest shareholder of Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining
-0.3% ICT.PM (International Container Terminal Services): Divests 51% stake in Yantai International Container Terminal to Yantai Port Holdings for CNY773.2M
Data:
Economic:
Singapore
February CPI +1.2% y/y versus consensus +1.2% and +1.4% in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: (1,857.04) or (3.48%) to 51515.49
Hang Seng: (894.85) or (3.54%) to 24382.47
Shanghai Composite: (143.77) or (3.63%) to 3813.28
Shenzhen Composite: (108.36) or (4.19%) to 2480.75
ASX200: (62.50) or (0.74%) to 8365.90
KOSPI: (375.45) or (6.49%) to 5405.75
SENSEX: (1,871.26) or (2.51%) to 72661.70
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.31 or +0.20% to 159.5420
$-KRW: +6.47 or +0.43% to 1511.8300
A$-$: (0.01) or (0.95%) to 0.6957
$-INR: +0.31 or +0.34% to 93.9083
$-CNY: +0.02 or +0.25% to 6.9035
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