Mar 24 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia markets ended largely higher Tuesday. Best gains for Japan's Topix, the Hang Seng, Shanghai's main boards, the Kospi and India's two main benchmarks. More modest gains for Australia, Taiwan and Singapore. New Zealand ended lower following hawkish RBNZ talk. US futures turning higher, Europe higher in early trades. US dollar erasing some of yesterday's gains, Asia currencies generally weaker. Crude oil higher with Brent back at $103/bl, downstream products all higher; precious metals under pressure as the dollar rises, base metals mixed. Cryptocurrencies generally lower.
Asia equities followed on from a positive Wall Street session overnight with gains of their own Tuesday. Indications from President Trump post Asia's close Monday that he would pause on his threat to attack Iran's energy infrastructure post several days of high-level talks boosted equities in Europe and the US. However, Tehran's denial of such talks having taken place caused investors to pause in Asia Tuesday, sending the dollar slightly higher alongside Treasury yields, and capping equity market gains.
In regional developments, Flash PMIs for March showed manufacturing and services growth slowing in Japan, Australia and India as new orders and output dipped and input costs rose. Japan's inflation fell to a four-year low 1.3% although a significant portion of the decline was due to energy subsidies; core inflation also dipped slightly. South Korea PPI climbed to 2.4% in February in an across-the-board increase, and before the Iran war began. RBNZ's governor Breman said rate hikes were possible if inflation proves persistent but will look past the current spike in fuel prices. Thailand's February export growth fell markedly and missed expectations as its trade balance swung to a deficit.
Nintendo (7974.JP) said it will cut back production of its Switch 2 console after US sales disappointed. Alibaba (9988.HK) unveiled its new 5nm AI capable chipset made by TSMC (2330.TT). SK Hynix (00660.KS) said it will buy extreme ultra violet scanners from ASML Korea for almost $8B to prepare for the mass output of new products; eyes $10B from US listing. Sony Group (6758.JP) is near a deal to sell a majority stake in its home entertainment unit to TCL Electronics. A private equity group led by Apollo Global Management is to take Nippon Sheet Glass (5202.JP) private via a special share issue and consolidation scheme. HDFC Bank (500180.IN) has appointed several domestic and international law firms to review the circumstances surrounding the resignation of its chairman.
Digest:
Trump optimistic about deal to end Iran conflict:
On Monday President Trump agreed to put off strikes against Iran power plants and energy infrastructure for five days after claiming "very good" conversations taking place between US and Iran (Bloomberg). Trump reiterated any deal must involve end to Iran's nuclear ambitions, Iran turning over stockpiles of enriched uranium to US and agree to be "low key" on missiles. Trump also claimed Iran agreed to reopen Strait of Hormuz and suggested there would be joint control of the waterway. Somewhat predictably, Iran denied negotiations taking place and maintained defiant stance (Reuters). Iranian Parliament's influential speaker, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, reported by Axios as the official holding talks in Pakistan with US negotiators. Sources told Politico Trump administration weighing Ghalibaf as potential partner and future US-backed leader of Iran, viewing him as a workable person would negotiating war's next phase. US officials also dismissed Ghalibaf's denial of involvement in talks as internal posturing. Israel PM Netanyahu held call with Trump, saying he is aware of the talks and believes chance to leverage military achievements that protects Israeli interests.
Trump's diplomacy push faces doubts:
Diplomacy headlines greeted cautiously by markets with equities unable to build on initial bounce and crude rebounding alongside US dollar in Asian trade Tuesday. Trump's optimism and prospects of a negotiated settlement inviting skepticism with his deal conditions proving major sticking points in previous negotiations. Media sources said IRGC sticking with tough demands, including compensation for damage to infrastructure, collecting fees from ships transiting Hormuz, and guarantee against future strikes. Some thought Trump's comments aimed at calming markets and putting downward pressure on oil with Arab mediators doubtful US and Iran can bridge differences. There remains prospect of war broadening after media sources said Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia and UAE weighing joining conflict with Crown Prince bin Salman close to decision and UAE cracking down on Iran-owned assets. Saudis also objecting to Iranian demands of control over Hormuz and collecting fees from ships transiting waterway. Energy, water and other infrastructure assets remain at risk of attack if talks break down. US and Israel continue to strike Iranian targets, and Tehran responding with more missile and drone launches.
Japan nationwide core inflation dips below 2% on government energy relief policies:
Nationwide core CPI rose 1.6% y/y in February compared to consensus 1.7%. Follows 2.0% in the previous month, marking the first sub-2% figure since Mar-22. Ex-fresh food & energy measure was 2.5% vs consensus 2.4% and 2.6% in prior month. Energy was the main factor, now a 0.71 ppt drag on the headline, 0.29 ppt deeper than January. Entirely reflected government cost of relief measures as another round of electricity and gas subsides took effect on top of existing drag from the abolition of the gasoline surcharge. Additionally, heavily weighted non-fresh food continued to moderate. Closely watched rice prices slowed for the ninth straight month reflecting unfavorable base effects, set to peak in May when prices surged 101.7% last year. Recall that BOJ in its latest policy statement continued to project a temporary softening in core inflation mainly reflecting this dynamic, but noted support will come from the recent surge in oil prices. Broadest petroleum products category was down 10.5% in February, the biggest drop since May-20 with gasoline, kerosene and propane gas all lower. Government already working to limit gasoline pump price to JPY170/L ($1.07) via subsidies.
March flash PMIs show manufacturing growth easing as new orders slow:
Three Asia-based flash PMIs for March showed new orders, output growth in decline. Japan's PMI signaled softer growth for manufacturing and services that led to slowest overall PMI expansion in three months at 52.5 from 53.9; new orders growth slowed, confidence slipped to lowest in 12 months while input costs also rose. Australia output index contracted for first time in 18 months; output decline sharpest since end 2023 as services activity fell while manufacturers posted small output decline. Overall composite index at 47 from 52.4 last month. India PMI showed weakest expansion since Oct-22; composite at 56.5 from 58.9 with manufacturing sub-component at 53.8 from 56.9; S&P said reflected slowdown in domestic demand with firms reporting Iran war, unstable market conditions, inflation all dampened growth despite sharp upturn in international orders.
RBNZ Governor Breman signals rate hike if inflation stays higher for longer:
In a speech discussing Iran conflict's impact on New Zealand, RBNZ Governor Breman said likely to see rise in headline inflation over near term and somewhat weaker growth momentum though it will take time for full effects to play out. Policy response will depend on duration of shock. Cautioned against acting too early against near-term inflation pressures amid risk of policy mistake. Said New Zealand exports at risk of softer external demand while higher wholesale interest rates contributing to tighter financial conditions, which may also dampen growth. Contrasted experience with 2022 oil shock, noting this time New Zealand's recovery still in early stages with economy operating below capacity. Equally, she warned against reacting too late if higher inflation becomes embedded. MPC will be vigilant against risk of enduring inflation pressures, and policy will need to be tightened in response to keep inflation within 1-3% target band. RBNZ mindful of first round direct effects (higher fuel prices) and indirect effects (change in price of goods directly affected by fuel), but more concerned about second round effects from changes to medium-term inflation expectations and growth outlook.
Notable Gainers:
+16.1% 6181.HK (Laopu Gold): reports FY non-IFRS adjusted net income CNY5.03B vs guidance CNY5.00-5.10B; declares final dividend CNY11.95/share vs year-ago CNY6.35/share; guides Q1 net income CNY3.60-3.80B
+6.6% 2162.HK (Keymed Biosciences): to acquire Ouro Medicines for total of $1,675M in upfront cash consideration and up to $500M in contingent milestone payments
+3.8% 6525.JP (Kokusai Electric): report of company to turn debt-free for first time as early as FY ending Mar-26
+3.7% 6232.JP (ACSL Ltd.): receives jpy1B order for small aerial photography aircraft from Ministry of Defence
+1.3% 6758.JP (Sony): reportedly near binding deal to sell majority stake in home entertainment unit to TCL Electronics in a roughly $1B transaction
Notable Decliners:
-29.9% 348370.KS (Enchem): Delays in submitting FY25 report due to insufficient audit evidence
Data:
Economic:
Japan
February nationwide core CPI +1.6% y/y vs consensus +1.7% and +2.0% in prior month
CPI excl. fresh food & energy +2.5% y/y vs consensus +2.4% and +2.6% in prior month
Overall CPI +1.3% y/y vs consensus +1.3% and +1.5% in prior month
March flash manufacturing PMI 51.4 vs consensus 52.8 and 53.0 in prior month
Services PMI 52.8 vs consensus 51.5 and 53.8 in prior month
Composite PMI 52.5 vs consensus 51.3 and 53.9 in prior month
India March
Flash manufacturing PMI 53.8 vs final 56.9 in prior month
Services PMI 57.2 vs 58.1 in prior month
Composite PMI 56.5 vs 58.9 in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: 736.79 or +1.43% to 52252.28
Hang Seng: 681.24 or +2.79% to 25063.71
Shanghai Composite: 68.00 or +1.78% to 3881.28
Shenzhen Composite: 53.89 or +2.17% to 2534.64
ASX200: 13.50 or +0.16% to 8379.40
KOSPI: 148.17 or +2.74% to 5553.92
SENSEX: 1,571.91 or +2.16% to 74268.30
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.04 or +0.03% to 158.4860
$-KRW: +6.95 or +0.47% to 1493.9400
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.36%) to 0.6986
$-INR: +0.53 or +0.57% to 93.7670
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.06% to 6.8849
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