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StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (2.79%), Hang Seng (0.81%), Shanghai Composite +0.24% as of 04:10 ET

Mar 30 ,2026

• Synopsis:

  • Asia equities ended lower almost everywhere Monday. The region's tech-orientated benchmarks fell the most with steep losses on the Kospi, Taiex and on both of Japan's main boards. India also sharply lower alongside Australia and the Hang Seng. Some small gains for Shanghai and Singapore. US futures flat, Europe opened slightly higher. US dollar DXY index hovering around the 100 mark, yen and won stronger post intervention talk from respective authorities. Brent futures higher at $108/bl. Precious metals paring early losses, base metals gaining especially aluminium after an Abu Dhabi supplier sustained damage in an Iranian strike. Cryptocurrencies broadly higher.

  • Asia equities fell from the open Monday although many finished away from their worst level and a few even managed modest gains by the close. The market volatility mirrors that of the gulf conflict as analysts juggled mixed messages over the weekend: President Trump said Tehran had agreed to most of his 15-point plan but Iran said it had rejected it. Ongoing attacks on and by Iran added to the confused picture while the entry of the Houthis in Yemen into the conflict over the weekend added another layer of complexity. In other related developments, Pakistan offered to mediate between Iran and the US while Washington mulled sending more troops to the region.

  • In Asia news, Tokyo officials warned over yen weakness after it briefly topped 160 per dollar while pension authorities in Seoul also warned over prompt action to stabilize the won. India's rupee bounced back following record lows last week after the RBI moved to cap speculative moves in the currency just as the government warned the gulf conflict could negatively impact economic growth. The BOJ March meeting minutes showed board members discussed the need for more rate hikes with discussions affected by the Iran conflict.

  • SoftBank (9984.JP) secured a $40B bridge loan to help fund OpenAI investment. OMRON (6645.JP) is to sell its device and module business to Carlyle Group in an 'absorption-type company split' deal. Country Garden (2007.HK) announced a CNY2.39B increase in debt defaults in February indicating there is no letup in China's property slump. Star Entertainment (SGR.AU) has secured $390M in funding from PE group WhiteHawk, giving the company enough liquidity to stabilize its balance sheet. Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) resumed operations at three Western Australia terminals following cyclone-related closures.

• Digest:

  • Japan FX chief Mimura indicates response to yen weakness may be imminent:

    • Responding to a breach in USD/JPY past 160 for the first time in 20 months, FX chief Mimura told reporters Monday, "If current conditions continue, it's about time that decisive measures are needed" (Nikkei). Added he is hearing speculative moves in FX and crude oil intensifying. Article noted Mimura has used the 'decisive measures' phrasing for the first time during his tenure from Jul-24. Also indicated authorities are looking at all options after MOF last week sounded out the idea of crude oil intervention to several financial institutions. Nikkei earlier discussed market expectations of intervention were ramping up as yen hit the 160 level late last week given this was the threshold that triggered the prior round of intervention. Current dynamics mainly a function of dollar strength amid demand for the most liquid reserve currency. Direct Japan impacts stem from surging crude oil prices (terms of trade) and the effective closure of Strait of Hormuz (energy uncertainty). Several sources said MOF in the final stages of compiling feedback from market participants on crude oil intervention. Attention on alternative strategies comes amid well-established skepticism towards the efficacy of yen-buying operations in curbing momentum. Under current conditions, MUFJ Morgan Stanley FX strategy warned that further escalation in Middle East conflict stands to erase any impact from intervention within a matter of days. While estimating intervention of some JPY3T in scale could support yen by 4-5 big figures, it would not address the key dynamics (dollar strength, oil prices) and impact may thereby diminish over time.

  • Iran war seemingly tracking towards diplomacy or escalation:

    • Speaking to reporters on Sunday President Trump said Iran agreed to most of 15-point plan though without specifying which ones (Bloomberg). In FT interview, Trump deal to end conflict could be made quickly with talks progressing well. Praised professional manner of Iran's negotiators, claiming influential parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was who authorized additional tankers through Strait of Hormuz and agreed to doubled number of permitted ships to 20 from 10. His remarks come as Pakistan expressed readiness to host peace talks after Islamabad conferred discussions with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey about ways to end conflict (Reuters, Bloomberg). However, still no confirmation US and Iran have agreed to meet with Tehran having publicly rejected US peace conditions and IRGC issuing their own separate demands. Risk of conflict widening after Houthis fired ballistic missiles at Israel, raising concerns about threat to Red Sea chokepoint Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port, where crude flows have been ramping up (FT). More reports about potential US troop deployment to capture Kharg Island, Hormuz shoreline or seize uranium stockpiles (Washington Post), link). Iran said ready to respond to any incursion.

  • Countries maneuver Strait of Hormuz disruption; aluminum strike heightens supply chain risks:

    • Efforts to alleviate oil supply constraints continue with Bloomberg sources noting Saudi Arabia's Yanbu pipeline has reached full capacity of 7Mbdp (5Mbpd destined for export). Partial redirection of flows via east-west pipeline viewed as one factor that has curbed oil price spike. More Asian countries securing Hormuz shipping exemptions with Iran agreeing to allow 20 Pakistani-linked vessels to transit. Two LPG tankers bound for India also allowed to transit (Reuters). Iran announced last week it would allow passage of ships linked to countries not involved in conflict, though reportedly charging toll of up to $2M per vessel on case-by-case basis. Meanwhile, tracking data shows uptick in number of ships transiting the Strait, albeit still significantly below pre-war levels (Bloomberg. Investing.com). While reduced crude flows has been central concern, Hormuz closure and Iran strikes against Middle East facilities is also heightening risks to industrial supply chains. Major aluminum facilities in UAE and Bahrain struck by Iranian missiles, with IRGC saying it was in response to Israeli attacks against Iranian steel plants (Reuters). War has also disrupted shipments of helium, naphtha and fertilizer, posing risk of downstream impacts on production of semiconductors, plastics and food (link).

  • BOJ board members weighed Middle East impacts at March meeting:

    • Summary of Opinions for the March policy meeting showed discussions were broadly affected by the Middle East conflict. On economic implications, conflict added another layer of key considerations, though one member framed it as a risk scenario given impact not yet known and domestic fallout has so far been limited. A couple of members were cautious and argued future developments need to be monitored. Overall economic assessment was unchanged while noting early shunto wage hikes were positive. Comments on inflation were mixed, though did not appear to include inputs from Takata and Tamura, who voted against the economic assessment in the policy statement with the view that underlying inflation had more or less reached 2%. In contrast, another couple of members noted underlying inflation had not reached 2%, though one of those saw risks to the outlook as symmetric and cognizant of a scenario in which Middle East could push underlying inflation above 2%. One member sought to contextualize the current phase, suggesting impacts will be far greater than the surge in rice prices, though still difficult to say if it will surpass the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Remarks on monetary policy leaned hawkish, retaining a rate hike bias and seemed to be waiting out Middle East risks only as long as it took to confirm that domestic dynamics remain intact. Two comments indicated wage hikes now increasing urgency not to delay rate hikes. Another couple continued to mention behind-the-curve risks. One member wanted to examine the need to accelerate rate hikes to neutral or restrictive levels in the event of protracted Middle East tensions.

  • BOJ says natural rate estimates 'moderately on the rise':

    • BOJ released updated analysis on the natural rate of interest (real neutral rate) on Friday afternoon, following the publication of revised output gap, potential growth and a new CPI series that strip out institutional (government and corporate policies) effects. Governor Ueda indicated at his press conference that such data would be released soon. Including other updates to the GDP base year, new estimates based on data through 3Q25 showed natural rate estimates ranged from around -0.9% to +0.5%. Compares to prior range based on data as of 1Q23 of around -1.0% to +0.5%. Report acknowledged that while the range has not changed significantly, a closer look reveals many estimates have recently been moderately on the rise. Likely reflects moderate recovery in potential growth since the Covid pandemic, as well as entrenchment of virtuous wage-price cycle thereby reducing demand for safe assets. Still, much of the report was devoted to emphasizing precision challenges, thereby limiting signal value, reiterating the disclaimer that such estimates need to be viewed with considerable latitude. Also reaffirmed policy decisions will be based on a comprehensive approach. Reactions were incremental; Reuters cited analyst interpretations that if inflation were to hit the 2% target, BOJ can raise the policy rate to at least around 1% without being restrictive. Still, recall that preceding terminal rate projections have tracked at around 1% for some time and recent polls have seen some shift towards 1.5% before the war in Iran.

  • Notable Gainers:

    • +12.3% 1070.HK (TCL Electronics Holdings): reports FY results; adjusted net income ahead of StreetAccount estimates

    • +9.4% 9519.JP (Renova): updates FY guidance

    • +7.3% 2600.HK (Aluminum Corp. of China): reports FY results; Aluminum stock trading higher following Iranian strike against Middle East aluminum facilities

  • Notable Decliners:

    • -17.5% 1066.HK (Shandong Weigao Group Medical Polymer): reports FY; revenue and pretax income below FactSet estimates

    • -8.7% 1357.HK (Meitu Inc): reports FY results; revenue below FactSet estimates

    • -6.3% 9984.JP (SoftBank Group): announces execution of $40B bridge facility primarily for follow-on investments in OpenAI

    • -5.9% 2678.JP (ASKUL Corp): reports 9M results; operating income (¥12.48B) vs year-ago ¥9.80B

    • -0.7% 1211.HK (BYD Co.): reports FY results

    • -0.0% 2007.HK (Country Garden Holdings): flags CNY2.39B increase in defaulted debts in Feb

• Data:

  • Economic:

    • No economic data today

  • Markets:

    • Nikkei: (1,487.22) or (2.79%) to 51885.85

    • Hang Seng: (201.09) or (0.81%) to 24750.79

    • Shanghai Composite: 9.56 or +0.24% to 3923.29

    • Shenzhen Composite: (0.04) or (0.00%) to 2579.50

    • ASX200: (55.30) or (0.65%) to 8461.00

    • KOSPI: (161.57) or (2.97%) to 5277.30

    • SENSEX: (1,147.78) or (1.56%) to 72435.44

  • Currencies:

    • $-¥: (0.53) or (0.33%) to 159.7700

    • $-KRW: +9.93 or +0.66% to 1518.4020

    • A$-$: (0.00) or (0.32%) to 0.6851

    • $-INR: (0.21) or (0.22%) to 94.4981

    • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 6.9115