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StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei (1.58%), Hang Seng +0.15%, Shanghai Composite (0.80%) as of 04:10 ET

Mar 31 ,2026

• Synopsis:

  • Asia equities traded mostly lower Tuesday and almost all finished away from their troughs. South Korea's Kospi and Taiwan's Taiex fell the most while Japan's main boards closed lower although again off their lows. Mainland China ended down while the Hang Seng finished marginally higher. Australia also closed slightly higher, Singapore was flat, the rest of Southeast Asia was mostly lower. India closed for a holiday. US futures point to a bright opening, Europe opened with gains. US dollar flat, no significant moves in Asia forex. Treasuries mixed, JGB yields lower. Crude futures marginally lower with Brent at $106/bl. Precious metals higher, base metals mixed. Cryptocurrencies higher.

  • Asia equities traded down on aggregate Tuesday to end the month on a sour note although most benchmarks bounced from their lows early on after President Trump said he may be prepared to end the Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, separate reports said as many as 10K US troops are still en route to the region while, today, Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker near Dubai. Trump also said earlier Monday evening US time that he would bomb Iranian energy, oil and desalination facilities if Iran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

  • In regional developments Tuesday, South Korea's government introduced a $17B emergency budget aimed at easing the burden of high oil prices. Separately, the BOK governor nominee Hyun Song Shin said it was too early to judge if oil-related inflation and lower economic growth risks will dominate development this year. Data also showed industrial production grew at its fastest pace in five years. China March official PMIs showed a better-than-expected rebound in activity with new order declines narrowing but there was also a sharp increase in input costs on energy constraints. Tokyo core inflation eased further below 2% target reflecting energy subsidies and the abolition of a gas surcharge. Japan unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down, industrial production declined in-line with expectations, while the retail sales decline was larger-than-expected. RBA minutes showed board uncertainty about future path of cash rate.

  • Japan Post (7181.JP) and Ashmore Group have announced a strategic partnership to develop emerging market products. Kweichow Moutai (600519.CH) announced it would increase the price of its Feitian Moutai spirit product. BYD (1211.HK) said it was confident of selling 1.5M units overseas this year and eventually account for around half of its business. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) is to cancel around KRW14.5T of treasury stocks to enhance shareholder value.

• Digest:

  • Trump willing to end Iran conflict without reopening Strait of Hormuz:

    • Media sources cited administration officials who said President Trump willing to end Iran conflict without reopening Strait of Hormuz, leaving any operation for future date. Trump and aides reason that attempting to reopen Hormuz would push war timeline beyond his 4-6 week timeline. Rather, focus should be on achieving original war goals of dismantling Iran's navy and missile capacity while relying on diplomatic pressure on Iran to resume shipping. Failing that, administration sees role for European and Gulf allies to take lead in reopening Hormuz.

    • Reassessment follows reports over past week about US troop buildup in region to give Trump options, including deploying them to Hormuz shoreline to remove Iranian military threat against commercial shipping (Reuters). Trump has also toyed with idea of taking Kharg Island and reportedly has weighed whether to use troops to seize Iran's stockpiles of enriched uranium.

    • On Monday Trump warned that unless Strait of Hormuz opened immediately, US will conclude conflict by bombing Iranian power plants, oil wells and Kharg Island, and possibly desalination plants. At same time, he has been talking up diplomatic prospects, posting US is in serious talks with a "more reasonable" regime and great progress being made (Bloomberg, Reuters).

    • Market has long harbored skepticism about negotiated outcome in part due to Iran's public defiance, wide gap between US and Iranian ceasefire demands (Tehran described US peace plan as unrealistic), and threat of conflict intensifying (concern Houthis could enter fray, US troop deployment and Gulf state participation). However, White House has also stressed Iran adopting more reasonable tone behind the scenes.

  • Iranian strike against oil tanker, Hormuz uncertainty underline crude's sensitivity to headlines:

    • Crude volatile amid latest Iran war developments, turning negative following earlier rally. Media report about Trump's willingness to end Iran conflict without reopening Strait of Hormuz attributed for latest downswing in futures with market likely gaming out reduced risk of an extended war or an escalation that increases Iranian threat to energy supplies.

    • Underlines heightened oil market sensitivity to Iran war headlines after earlier crude rally was attributed to statement by Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) that Iran struck a fully loaded oil tanker stationed in Dubai, resulting in damage with potential for oil spill (Bloomberg). Dubai authorities later confirmed response teams successfully extinguished fire and continue to assess situation.

    • Report about Trump willing to accept end to conflict without addressing Hormuz adds another layer of uncertainty surrounding fate of the waterway. US has voiced objection to Iranian attempts to exercise control over Hormuz after its parliament legislated authority to charge tolls. On Monday Treasury Secretary Bessent said US would eventually retake the Strait (Bloomberg) and Secretary of State Rubio vowed Hormuz will reopen one way or the other, warning of consequences if Iran maintained blockage (Al Jazeera).

  • China official PMIs return to expansion, Middle East triggers notable pickup in prices:

    • Official manufacturing PMI was 50.4 in March, beating consensus 50.1. Follows 49.0 in the previous month, swinging back to expansion territory for the first time since December. Headline index mirrored a recovery in new orders while export declines eased. Production also rebounded after falling into contraction last month. However, biggest development was a jump in input prices, well outpacing a sharp pickup in output prices. Reflecting Middle East conflict, NBS noted price indices for petroleum, coal, other fuel processing, chemical inputs and products were above 70. By industry size, expansion was still confined to large firms while sharper improvements in medium and especially small firms were still insufficient to lift activity into positive territory. Nonmanufacturing PMI also improved to 50.1 from 49.5, above consensus 49.9, for the first expansion in three months. Buoyed mainly by outlook optimism, new orders remained notably soft. Inflation metrics similarly showed input prices accelerated while output prices remained marginally negative. Services activity notably swung to growth for the first time since October, seemingly driven by resumption of corporate activity while consumer services softened after the LNY holiday. Construction remained in contraction though weakness moderated. Composite PMI rose to 50.5 from 49.5, also the first expansion in three months.

  • Seoul proposes more than $17B in emergency budget to ease energy costs:

    • South Korea's government is to propose KRW26.2T ($17.1B) supplementary budget to National Assembly to ease burden of higher energy prices on households, industry amid a supply crunch caused by Iran war (Yonhap). KRW 10.1T aimed directly at easing burden of high oil prices with around half of this allocated to petroleum price cap announced on 9-Mar by President Lee; remainder spent on local government grants, exporter support. KRW4.8T allotted to consumer vouchers for bottom 70% of earners; fishermen, farmers, small-scale cargo ship operators to receive fuel subsidies. Budget Minister Park Hong-guen said package to be funded from tax revenue from chip exports, stock market rally. Added package focused on response to high oil prices, stabilizing livelihoods, minimizing industrial damage while securing supply chains. Earlier, BOK governor nominee Hyun Song Shin warned surging oil prices could heat up inflation and pose downside growth risks but it is still too early to judge if those risks will dominate (Bloomberg).

  • Tokyo core inflation edges lower, nationwide labor market improves marginally:

    • Tokyo core CPI rose 1.7% y/y in March, just below consensus 1.8%. Follows 1.8% in the previous month and marks the softest Apr-24. Ex-fresh food & energy inflation was 2.3% vs consensus 2.2% and 2.5% in the prior month (lowest in a year). Energy drags moderated by 0.09 ppt to 0.39 ppt. Policy effects (electricity & gas subsidies, abolition of gasoline surcharge) took 0.64 ppt off the headline, though 0.34 ppt was negated by base effects. However, March data captured the early stages of the surge in gasoline prices, averaging an outsized 16.0% m/m -- the fastest increase since May-08 -- sufficient to erase almost all of the year-ago drop. Energy developments were marginally eclipsed mainly by ongoing deceleration in heavily weighted non-fresh food, where contribution fell by 0.13 ppt. Closely watched rice prices rose 8.3% y/y, pulling back to single digits for the first time since May-24. On top of a steady sequential declines (fourth straight month), unfavorable base effects will peak in Apr-May when prices nearly doubled. Separately, unemployment rate was 2.6% in February, slightly below consensus and prior month's 2.7%. Details were positive as a partial sequential rebound in total employed outpaced growth in the labor force. Job offers to applicants ratio ticked up to 1.19 vs consensus and prior month's 1.18, albeit owing mainly to lower applications.

  • Notable Gainers:

    • +11.3% 1519.HK (J&T Global Express): reports FY results; headline results ahead of FactSet estimates

    • +11.1% 7965.JP (Zojirushi): reports Q1 results; operating income +28% year-on-year

    • +5.6% 2388.HK (BOC Hong Kong (Holdings)): reports FY results; headline figures ahead of FactSet estimates

    • +2.1% 600519.CH (Kweichow Moutai): increases Feitian's ex-factory price for 53%vol 500ml moutai (2026) to CNY1,269 per bottle from CNY1,169 per bottle

    • +2.0% 6645.JP (OMRON): to sell Device & Module Solutions business to Carlyle

    • +1.5% 1880.HK (China Tourism Group Duty Free): reports FY results; net income attributable CNY3.64B vs prelim. CNY3.59B

    • +1.3% 4901.JP (FUJIFILM): to launch up-to-¥30.0B buyback

    • +1.2% 9533.JP (TOHO GAS): to launch up-to-¥15B buyback

  • Notable Decliners:

    • -10.0% 6881.HK (China Galaxy Securities): reports FY results; headline figures below FactSet estimates

    • -8.3% 3986.HK (GigaDevice Semiconductor): reports FY results; revenue below FactSet estimates

    • -5.9% 1907.HK (China Risun Group): Hong Kong energy sector pulling back; Crude oil retreats as Trump mulls war exit

    • -4.9% 1800.HK (China Communications Construction): reports FY results; headline figures below FactSet estimates

• Data:

  • Economic:

    • China March

      • Official manufacturing PMI 50.4 vs consensus 50.1 and 49.0 in prior month

        • Non-manufacturing PMI 50.1 vs consensus 49.9 and 49.5 in prior month

        • Composite PMI 50.5 vs 49.5 in prior month

    • Japan

      • March Tokyo core CPI +1.7% y/y vs consensus +1.8% and +1.8% in prior month

        • CPI excl. fresh food & energy +2.3% y/y vs consensus +2.2% and +2.5% in prior month

        • Overall CPI +1.4% y/y vs consensus +1.7% and revised +1.5% in prior month

      • February unemployment rate 2.6% vs consensus 2.7% and 2.7% in prior month

        • Job offers to applicants ratio 1.19 vs consensus 1.18 vs revised 1.18 in prior month

      • February industrial production (2.1%) m/m vs consensus (2.1%) and +4.3% in prior month

        • METI survey projections +3.8% in March, +3.3% in April

      • February retail sales (0.2%) y/y vs consensus +0.8% and +1.8% in prior month

        • Retail sales (2.0%) m/m vs consensus (0.9%) and revised (3.0%) in prior month

    • Australia February

      • Private sector credit +0.6% m/m vs consensus +0.6% and +0.5% in January

    • New Zealand March

      • ANZ Business Confidence +32.5 vs +59.2 in February

    • South Korea February

      • industrial production +5.4 m/m vs Factset consensus +2.0% and revised (2.4%) in prior month (08:00 KST)

        • Industrial production (2.2%) y/y vs Factset consensus +3.8% and revised +6.8% in prior month

  • Markets:

    • Nikkei: (822.13) or (1.58%) to 51063.72

    • Hang Seng: 37.35 or +0.15% to 24788.14

    • Shanghai Composite: (31.43) or (0.80%) to 3891.86

    • Shenzhen Composite: (44.14) or (1.71%) to 2535.36

    • ASX200: 20.80 or +0.25% to 8481.80

    • KOSPI: (224.84) or (4.26%) to 5052.46

    • SENSEX: Closed

  • Currencies:

    • $-¥: (0.09) or (0.06%) to 159.6350

    • $-KRW: +12.69 or +0.84% to 1530.3600

    • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.18% to 0.6865

    • $-INR: (0.33) or (0.35%) to 94.0123

    • $-CNY: (0.01) or (0.11%) to 6.9049