Mar 31 ,2026
Synopsis:
European indices ended in positive territory. Miners and financials top gainers; personal/household goods the big laggard. Follows broad gains on Monday. Latest rebound driven by reports that Trump may end the Iran conflict without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, instead delaying further action and shifting focus to diplomatic pressure on Iran.
Today's key macro highlight is the Eurozone CPI Flash estimate reaching highest level in over a year in Mar to +2.5%, up sharply from +1.9% in Feb but in-line with consensus expectations. Energy prices were solely responsible for the jump, rising +4.9% y/y. By contrast, core inflation dipped slightly to +2.3% versus +2.4% consensus. Meanwhile, German retail sales missed in February. Ifo survey showed 90% of manufacturing firms expect negative effects due to Iran war. In the UK, final Q4 2025 GDP confirmed at +0.1% q/q. Nationwide house price index registered big jump in UK house prices in March, +0.9% m/m in March versus consensus +0.6% and prior +0.3%, leaving y/y gain of +2.2% versus +1.5% forecast and prior +1.0%.
In corporate news, Hilton Food Group (HFG.LN), Pets At Home Group (PETS.LN) and Ashmore Group (ASHM.LN) updated investors. Out of DACHs, Siemens (SIE.GR) reportedly plans to dissolve its digital industries and smart infrastructure segments. UBS (UBSG.SW) in focus after Swiss lawmakers signal compromise on banking reforms. In France, Casino Guichard-Perrachon (CO.FP) reported FY earnings and updated on financial restructuring project.
In M&A, Galapagos (GLPG.NA) entered into binding agreement with Gilead Sciences (GILD) in connection with Gilead's definitive agreement to acquire all outstanding equity interests of Ouro Medicines. Unilever (ULVR.LN) in advanced talks to combine food business with McCormick.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's EU econ-calendar, key releases will include, amongst others, final reads for manufacturing PMIs from Eurozone, France, Germany and UK, Italy manufacturing PMI, Eurozone and Italy Feb unemployment rate. Of note, markets will be closed in Cyprus (National Day) and Israel (Passover Eve) while Norway will close early (Holy Wednesday).
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Basic Resources +2.12%, Financial Svcs +1.66%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.10%, Media +1.09%, Banks +0.83%, Technology +0.80%, Autos & Parts +0.67%, Construct & Mtls +0.56%, Oil & Gas +0.52%, Insurance +0.50%
Underperformers:
Persnl & HHold Goods (1.53%), Food & Beverage (0.41%), Chemicals (0.40%), Telecom (0.40%), Real Estate (0.10%), Health Care (0.06%), Utilities +0.06%, Travel & Leisure +0.35%, Retail +0.37%
Macro:
Central Banks:
EU:
EU launches probe into French aid for new nuclear reactors -- LeMonde
EU approves €6B Italian biomass and renewable hydrogen support scheme -- BioenergyInsight
UK:
Germany:
German institutes cut 2026, 2027 growth forecasts, raise inflation outlook, sources say -- Reuters
Italy:
Meloni Holds Firm as Left's 'Collapse' Narrative Falls Flat -- EuropeanConservative
Italy's parliament passes energy decree to cut power prices -- Montelnews
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+23.9% BRCK.LN (BRCK Group £0.51, +0.10) -- acquisition proposal from Atlas Holdings rejected
+9.4% DATA.LN (GlobalData £0.72, +0.06) -- new £10M buyback programme
+8.7% KAMBI.SS (Kambi Group SEK116.80, +9.40) -- long-term turnkey sportsbook partnership
+8.1% EKT.GR (EnergieKontor €37.55, +2.85) -- FY earnings
+7.8% GENO.SS (Genovis SEK17.86, +1.30) -- commercialisation of SEQguard Dino Preserve
+7.5% IVSO.SS (INVISIO SEK259.50, +18.00) -- Pareto upgrade
+7.1% SZU.GR (Suedzucker €12.88, +0.86) -- Barclays upgrade
+6.8% VID.LN (Videndum £3.90, +0.23) -- FY earnings
+6.8% MSON.B.SS (Midsona SEK12.55, +0.80) -- acquires Risenta
+6.7% ASHM.LN (Ashmore Group £2.12, +0.13) -- strategic partnership with Japan Post Insurance
+5.7% BAG.LN (A.G. BARR £6.56, +0.35) -- FY earnings
+5.4% ALO.FP (Alstom €24.35, +1.24) -- €700M AMECA systems contract
+5.3% STX.LN (Shield Therapeutics £0.08, -0.00) -- EMA approval for FeRACCRU extension of the indication to include adolescents
+5.0% CBG.LN (Close Brothers Group £3.98, +0.19) -- Statement in relation to motor finance commissions; FCA confirms motor finance redress scheme
+4.3% DFS.LN (DFS Furniture £1.20, +0.05) -- initiated buy at Shore Capital Stockbrokers
+4.2% ALPM.FP (Précia €24.30, +1.00) -- exclusive talks to acquire Minebea Intec France
+4.0% GBG.LN (GB Group £2.01, +0.08) -- £10M extension of share repurchase programme
+4.0% HFG.LN (Hilton Food Group £5.14, +0.20) -- FY earnings
+4.0% UBSG.SW (UBS Group CHF30.72, +1.17) -- Swiss lawmakers signal compromise on $22B UBS capital plan -- FT
+3.8% VWS.DC (Vestas Wind Systems DKK190.15, +7.00) -- Rothschild & Co Redburn upgrade
+3.7% DEMANT.DC (Demant DKK193.90, +7.00) -- Danske Bank upgrade
+3.5% GET.FP (Getlink €18.55, +0.63) -- 9.5% stake acquired by Mundys
+3.3% SFR.LN (Severfield £0.26, +0.01) -- FY trading update
+3.0% MAB1.LN (Mortgage Advice Bureau £5.56, +0.16) -- update on move to the Main Market
+2.6% SWON.SW (SoftwareONE Holding CHF6.78, +0.18) -- FY earnings
+2.2% BRG.NO (Borregaard NOK174.80, +3.80) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+2.1% FLS.DC (FLSmidth & Co. DKK483.20, +10.00) -- Barclays upgrade
+2.0% POMRY.FP (Vranken-Pommery Monopole €10.30, +0.20) -- FY earnings
+1.8% FGR.FP (Eiffage €130.95, +2.30) -- 9.5% stake acquired by Mundys
+1.6% PETS.LN (Pets At Home Group £1.81, +0.03) -- FY25 trading update
Notable Decliners
-23.7% FUTR.LN (Future Plc £2.83, -0.92) -- pre-close trading update
-6.4% MBB.GR (MBB €170.60, -11.60) -- FY earnings
-4.4% KEMIRA.FH (Kemira €18.85, -0.87) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade
-4.1% CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon €0.16, -0.01) -- update on financial restructuring project
-3.6% DMP.GR (Dermapharm Holding €42.05, -1.60) -- final FY earnings
-3.3% JFN.SW (Jungfraubahn Holding CHF262.50, -9.00) -- FY earnings
-3.1% JLP.LN (Jubilee Metals Group £0.03, -0.00) -- H1 earnings; near-term Molefe mine plan update
-2.8% RECSI.NO (REC Silicon NOK0.28, -0.01) -- $110.0M guaranteed term loan agreement extension
-2.5% BAR.BB (Barco €9.43, -0.24) -- ING downgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: 7C Solarparken (HRPK.GR)
France: Synergie (SDG.FP), Delta Plus Group (ALDLT.FP)
Nordics: MAG Interactive (MAGI.SS)
Trading Update:
DACHs: Continental (CON.GR)
UK: Renew Holdings (RNWH.LN), Peel Hunt (PEEL.LN), Topps Tiles (TPT.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Italy Mar Preliminary CPI +1.7% y/y vs consensus +2.3% and prior +1.5%
Eurozone Mar Preliminary CPI +2.5% y/y vs consensus +2.7% and prior +1.9%
Germany Feb Retail Sales y/y +0.7% vs consensus +1.0% and prior revised to +1.0% from +1.2%
UK
Q4 GDP SA y/y (final) +1.0% vs consensus +1.0% and prior revised to +1.2% from +1.2%
Mar Nationwide House Price Index y/y +2.2% vs consensus +1.5% and prior +1.0%
France
Mar Preliminary CPI y/y +1.7% vs consensus +1.6% and prior +0.9%
Feb
Consumer Goods Spending m/m (0.9%) vs consensus n/a and prior +0.5%
PPI m/m (0.2%) vs consensus (0.2%) and prior +0.5%
Markets:
WTI Crude (26-May): +$1.49 or +1.45% to $104.37
€-$ +0.0058 or +0.51% to 1.1522
£-$ +0.0018 or +0.14% to 1.3203
€-£ +0.0031 to 0.8726
S&P 500 +1.41%
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +2.47%
DAX: (7.39%)
CAC: (4.08%)
MIB: (1.41%)
Stoxx 600: (1.53%)
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