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StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +5.24%, Hang Seng +2.04%, Shanghai Composite +1.46% as of 04:10 ET

Apr 01 ,2026

• Synopsis:

  • Asia equities ended substantially higher Wednesday. Biggest gain was in South Korea where high-tech names outperformed with the gains triggering a brief 'sidecar' trading halt; Nikkei and Topix also much higher in Japan, Taiwan also closed higher. Greater China benchmarks all higher, Southeast Asia and India benchmarks rallying. New Zealand's NZX 50 the sole benchmark with a loss. US futures indicate another higher open, Europe strong in the first hour. US dollar lower with its DXY index well below 100; AUD higher but little movement of note elsewhere. Treasury and JGB yields lower across tenors. Brent crude futures flat having been higher earlier but still above $100/bl; WTI slightly higher, gas futures down. Precious metals mixed. Base metals higher led by copper and iron ore. Cryptocurrencies mixed.

  • Asia equities rallied strongly Wednesday to follow through from gains overnight on Wall Street after President Trump said he expects hostilities in the Gulf to end in two-to-three weeks, adding he would address the nation on Wednesday evening US time. He also hinted he would be happy to end the conflict without the Strait of Hormuz fulling opening, suggesting it was up to other countries to take up that responsibility given the US doesn't need it for oil supplies. Equities further supported by an afternoon drop in crude prices with Brent hovering around $100/bl. However, several analysts remained skeptical, questioning why Trump would allow Hormuz to stay closed, why thousands of troops are still en route to the region, and why a third US aircraft carrier has been dispatched to the region.

  • In regional developments, regional March PMI readings generally showed improved output and new orders but with a noticeable uptick in input costs. China's private PMI survey slowed by more than expected amid supply chain disruptions and higher costs. South Korea export growth accelerated in March to a new record as semiconductor shipments remained robust. The BOJ Tankan survey showed an uptick in manufacturer sentiment but inflation expectations rose.

  • KKR is to privatize Taiyo Holdings (4626.JP) following its $3.3B tender offer but shares ended sharply lower. HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180.KS) has downsized its convertible bond issuance to KRW2.37T from KR3.03T; said it would target KRW25.9T in revenue by 2027. IndiGo (InterGlobe Aviation, 539448.IN) named aviation veteran Willie Walsh as its new CEO; shares sharply higher. Fonterra (FCG.NZ) said its 'grass-fed' label may have mislead shoppers, pledges change, following an environmental group legal challenge.

• Digest:

  • Trump expects war to end in 2-3 weeks, risk of escalation remains:

    • Iran conflict offramp hopes gained more traction after President Trump said he expects hostilities to end in maybe 2-3 weeks but possible deal will be made before then. Added Iranian agreement not necessary condition to end conflict (Bloomberg). Echoed remarks to NY Post that he believes war will end soon once Iran's offensive capabilities destroyed. Following media report Trump voiced willingness about ending conflict without reopening Strait of Hormuz, Trump said Strait will automatically reopen when war ends and again put onus on US allies to assume responsibility. Trump to address nation about Iran conflict Wednesday night.

    • Iran President Pezeshkian said willing to end conflict provided conditions met, including guarantee against future military action (euronews).Foreign Minister Araghchi also confirmed communications with US envoy Witkoff. Iran has described some US demands as unreasonable though said it has yet to formally respond to 15-point peace plan (Trump has claimed Iran has agreed to most points).

    • Trump's optimism jarring somewhat against a still-unsettled war backdrop and risk of escalation with US dispatching third aircraft carrier to Middle East (Bloomberg). Defense Secretary Hegseth said upcoming days in conflict will be decisive with US likely to intensify fighting it Iran does not make a deal (Reuters). Media sources said UAE preparing to assist US open Strait of Hormuz by force and is lobbying UN Security Council for resolution authorizing action (link). Iran issued its own threats with IRGC listing Middle Eastern units of several big US tech companies as possible targets. Also risk of Iran widening campaign against Middle East economic infrastructure (link).

  • March BOJ Tankan large firm business sentiment resilient, partially capturing Middle East impacts:

    • Headline BOJ Tankan large manufacturers business conditions DI was 17 in March, matching QUICK consensus while December was revised up 1 pt to 16. Still marks the fourth straight improvement.

    • Sectors were generally stable to positive, managing to slightly outweigh an 18 pt drop in petroleum & coal products. Upstream sectors were flat on the whole while positive momentum was driven mainly downstream.

    • Large nonmanufacturers came in at 36 vs consensus 33 and revised 36 in December.

    • While survey period spanned 26-Feb through 31-Mar, BOJ said some 70% of responses were submitted by the target response deadline of 12-Mar and acknowledged that Middle East impacts to date were unlikely to be fully captured (Nikkei).

    • Subdued outlook readings came more into focus in the current climate with large manufacturers pointing to 12 in June and nonmanufacturers projecting 28. Sectors skewed notably to the downside. Small firms were little changed in March while June outlook was similarly softer.

    • An encouraging sign came with broad improvements in domestic and overseas supply & demand conditions. In terms of output gap proxies, all-enterprise production capacity continued to point to constraints, employment was also steady indicating ongoing historic labor shortages.

    • FX assumptions now tracking well outside current levels, shifting risks back towards earnings headwind from notable windfalls. FY25 USD/JPY at 148.29 compares with current 158.62, while EUR/JPY projection of 167.14 stands far from current 183.59. FY26 forecasts only moderately aligning with USD/JPY at 150.10 and EUR/JPY at 171.77.

    • Large firm FY25 capex projections revised down to 10.9% growth from 12.6%, reflecting typical consolidation at the end of the fiscal year. FY26 first reading at +3.3% is softer than recent years and consistent with long term average coming as a relatively slow start to the year.

    • Yet, FY25 all-enterprise current profit growth was revised up to +1.9%, consistent with latest corporate guidance aggregates on solid 2.3% growth in sales. FY26 profit projection started at -2.4%; while there was similar optimism for progressive upgrades, Middle East conflict stands to impact sentiment.

    • Inflation metrics were firmer and pressures skewed toward input prices, which generally outpaced increases in output prices. Meanwhile, general inflation outlook edged higher in all 1y, 3y and 5y time horizons further above BOJ's 2% target.

  • China AI pure plays fuel stock volatility in Asia:

    • Bloomberg discussed how Chinese AI companies have fueled volatility in Asia's equity markets with shares of newly listed model developers and chip designers swinging on retail flows. Its calculations for firms valued above $10B showed half of Asia's most volatile stocks based on 90D annualized volatility were recent IPOs from the sector. Noted recent surge in volatility has been intensified by scant institutional ownership and mania around all things AI, which could increase even more as some Hong Kong-listed names will be included in trading links with onshore bourses, attracting more mainland investors who are more prone to momentum-driven trading. One notable example was Zhipu (2513.HK) that saw its shares surge as much as 35% on Wednesday after earnings report that showed revenue more than doubled in 2025 but just missed analysts' average projections and posted 60% increase in net losses. Investors betting token sellers including Zhipu and MiniMax (100.HK) best positioned to benefit from growing token demand. Still analysts cautioned there is no proven AI leader in China yet, with fierce competition from Chinese hyperscalers and lack of profitability remaining as challenges, meaning conviction in these stocks can quickly unwind.

  • March PMIs show manufacturing growth slowing, input costs rising:

    • S&PGlobal Asia PMIs showed continued manufacturing growth in many countries offset by rising input costs. South Korea's reading rose to highest in more than four years as output, new orders expanded again to send index to 52.6 from February's 51.1 however input costs rose to highest since Jun-22 with firms frequently mentioning higher oil prices as cause. Taiwan's index slipped from February's four-year high to 53.3 with softer increases in output, new orders while input costs also rose and supply chain performance deteriorated. Australia saw renewed decline in new orders and input cost inflation at 3.5-year high; its full index slipped to contraction at 49.8 from 51.0. China's RatingDog PMI also noted rising costs, supply pressures but reading was 50.8 to reflect expansion. ASEAN nations posted notable demand, production and confidence slowdown but kept expansionary 51.8 from February's record 53.8.

  • China RatingDog PMI shows expansion in factory activity slows with cost pressure from Iran war:

    • China RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.8 in March, weaker than consensus 51.6 and slowed from 52.1 in the previous month, while data in expansion territory for fourth straight month and was still second strongest in past six months. New orders, output and employment all rose further in March, accompanied by higher purchasing activity and rising backlogs of work. New export business grew, although more slowly than in February. Notably lead times lengthened for first time in five months and magnitude was greatest since Dec-22, which were attributed to supply chain disruptions, rising and volatile input prices and capacity constraints. Cost inflationary pressures evident as rate of input price inflation jumped to highest in four years while rate of output price inflation also picked up to four-year high. Overall sentiment softened from February's recent peak but remained stronger than in December and January. Macro environment turning more complicated. Large-scale stimulus seems unlikely as policymakers lowered growth target and emphasized stability while geopolitical conflicts continue to push up oil prices with imported inflationary factor likely to exert more pressure on input costs in April.

  • Notable Gainers:

    • +31.9% 2513.HK (Knowledge Atlas Technology): reports FY results; revenue +132% y/y

    • +17.1% 9880.HK (UBTECH Robotics): reports FY results; adjusted net income loss narrows

    • +15.2% 200.HK (Melco International Development): reports FY results

    • +13.4% 005930.KS (Samsung Electronics): semicon stocks in South Korea broadly higher as Iran conflict offramp hopes gain traction

    • +9.5% 6098.JP (Recruit): to conduct share buyback for up to ¥350B

    • +8.5% 8308.JP (Resona): formulates new mid-term plan FY26-28; targets FY26-28 ROE 12%

    • +5.7% 9896.HK (MINISO Group Holding): reports FY results; EPADS beat StreetAccount estimates

    • +4.8% 4613.JP (Kansai Paint): Silchester discloses 5.05% stake

    • +0.0% 9104.JP (Mitsui O.S.K. Lines): announces new medium-term plan Phase 2

  • Notable Decliners:

    • -4.8% 3659.JP (NEXON Co.): presents transformation plan at 2026 capital markets briefing

    • -3.3% 9433.JP (KDDI Corp): presents report on fictitious circular transactions, revises prior-year results and FY forecasts

    • -2.9% 329180.KS (HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co.): HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering to issue convertible bonds exchangeable for HD Hyundai Heavy Industries shares

    • -1.9% 600905.CH (China Three Gorges Renewables (Group)): reports preliminary FY results; headline results below FactSet estimates

• Data:

  • Economic:

    • China March

      • RatingDog Manufacturing PMI 50.8 vs consensus 51.6 and 52.1 in prior month

    • Japan March

      • BOJ Tankan large manufacturers business conditions index 17 vs consensus 17 and revised 16 in December

        • Large non-manufacturers business conditions index 36 vs consensus 33 and revised 36 in December

        • FY25 large enterprise capex projection +10.9% vs consensus 13.0% and +12.6% in December

        • 1-year inflation expectations +2.6% y/y vs +2.4% in December

      • Final manufacturing PMI 51.6 vs flash 51.4 and 53.0 in prior month

    • Australia February

      • Building approvals +29.7% m/m vs consensus +6.2% and (7.2%) in January

    • South Korea March

      • Trade balance $25.7B vs FactSet consensus $13.0B and revised $15.4B in prior month

        • Exports +48.3% y/y vs FactSet consensus +42.6% and revised +28.7% in prior month

        • Imports +13.2% y/y vs FactSet consensus +12.5% and +7.5% in prior month

  • Markets:

    • Nikkei: 2,675.96 or +5.24% to 53739.68

    • Hang Seng: 505.89 or +2.04% to 25294.03

    • Shanghai Composite: 56.69 or +1.46% to 3948.55

    • Shenzhen Composite: 41.87 or +1.65% to 2577.23

    • ASX200: 190.00 or +2.24% to 8671.80

    • KOSPI: 426.24 or +8.44% to 5478.70

    • SENSEX: 1,645.27 or +2.29% to 73592.81

  • Currencies:

    • $-¥: (0.01) or (0.01%) to 158.7060

    • $-KRW: (1.88) or (0.12%) to 1504.8900

    • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.50% to 0.6934

    • $-INR: (0.16) or (0.17%) to 93.3261

    • $-CNY: (0.02) or (0.34%) to 6.8758