Apr 07 ,2026
Synopsis:
European indices ended in negative territory, except for Norway and Sweden. A clear risk off tone has returned with focus on latest geopolitical headlines, including reported strikes on Kharg Island, Trump posting "a whole civilization will die tonight," Iran's (latest) rejection of any temporary ceasefire and IRGC threats. Earlier reports also flagged slim chance of an agreement between US and Iran by Trump's 20:00 ET deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or see its key infrastructure get destroyed. However, still a lot of talk about the likelihood of another extension with latest report saying US-Iran diplomatic channels still open, though general market skepticism remains
On the macro-front, final Eurozone composite PMI revised up from flash reading, though activity still very subdued. Also, the latest Sentix investor sentiment indicator saw a sharp drop in Eurozone economic confidence. April reading at -19.2 versus forecast -9 and prior -3.1 to lowest level since April 2025. Current situation index at -22.8 versus prior -9.5 and expectations index at -15.5 versus +3.5, both the lowest in a year. Sentix highlighted recession risk due to macro regime shift from Iran war. German indicator also at lowest since April 2025 at -27.7 versus prior -12.1. Current situation index at -38.0 versus -25.0 and expectations index at -16.8 versus +1.8, both lowest since September 2024. Sentix noted negative consequence of sharp rise in inflation and associated impact on demand due to economic uncertainty. Inflation barometer signaled surge in inflation. Pointed to difficult policy trade-off for central banks. While previous slowdown would usually increase scope for monetary policy support, renewed rise in inflation could force more restrictive policy stance. ECB tipped to have live discussion on potential rate increases in policy meeting at the end of the month, though consensus is for move in June. In central banks news, markets discounting more than three ECB rate hikes this year as surging energy costs push Eurozone inflation well above 2% target. Some policymakers leaning hawkish. Belgian central bank chief Wunsch said ECB may hike if Iran war not done by Jun, and also said Apr move cannot be ruled out. View echoed by ECB's Radev and Sleijpen. Yet analysts divided on whether markets have run ahead of reality. ING suggested ECB hike far from assured absent clear evidence of broadening price pressures. Schroders warned that growth squeeze could negate risk of second-round effects, potentially forcing a rapid pivot to cuts instead. Policy mistake risk appears real. Azimut believes ECB conditioned by 2022 experience and could misread macro picture entirely - making volatility in fixed income markets, particularly inflation-linked bonds, highest-conviction trade right now
In M&A news, Pershing Square submitted a proposal to acquire all outstanding shares of Universal Music Group (UMG.NA) with a total consideration package of cash and stock estimated to be €30.40/sh. Italian daily Corriere delle Sera, citing sources, wrote that Brembo (BRE.IM) is working on a potential acquisition of US based Tenneco suspension division, owned by Apollo Global Management (APO). Furthermore, ING (INGA.NA) terminated the sale agreement for its Russian business and Bureau Veritas (BVI.FP) acquired Lotusworks at enterprise value of €375M. The Times cites a letter sent to YouGov's (YOU.LN) board by Gatemore's founder and managing partner Liad Meidar urging the company to cut costs more aggressively and be open to selling consumer panels business for less than £270M paid two years ago. The Times also reports Unilever (ULVR.LN) is to pursue more health and wellness acquisitions. Amidst a light earnings front, EMS-Chemie Holding (EMSN.SW) posted Q1 sales and left FY26 outlook unchanged
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers: Media +3.69%, Chemicals +0.54%, Telecom +0.32%, Oil & Gas +0.26%, Insurance (0.35%), Utilities (0.38%), Food & Beverage (0.43%), Banks (0.46%), Basic Resources (0.60%), Persnl & HHold Goods (0.96%)
Underperformers: Health Care (2.06%), Autos & Parts (1.91%), Technology (1.90%), Retail (1.74%), Ind Goods & Svcs (1.52%), Travel & Leisure (1.42%), Real Estate (1.22%), Construct & Mtls (1.14%), Financial Svcs (1.05%)
Macro:
Trump says 'a whole civilization will die tonight' if Tehran does not make a deal by deadline (Reuters)
Iran still refuses to reopen Strait of Hormuz as Trump threatens infrastructure strikes (EN)
France goes big on missiles and drones in multibillion-euro defense plan (Politico)
Can the Iran war save Keir Starmer's premiership? (FT)
Orban Offered to Be 'Mouse' Helping Russian 'Lion' in Putin Call (BBG)
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+13.7% NWL.IM (NewPrinces €17.47, +2.11) -- announces acceleration of the share buyback program
+12.5% UMG.NA (Universal Music Group €19.25, +2.14) -- Pershing Square submits proposal to acquire all outstanding shares of Universal Music Group
+10.2% VIV.FP (Vivendi €2.02, +0.19) -- Pershing Square submits proposal to acquire all outstanding shares of Universal Music Group
+7.0% HVO.LN (hVIVO plc £0.07, -0.00)
+6.7% PEN.NO (Panoro Energy NOK35.75, +2.25) -- announces extension of Dussafu Production Sharing Contract
+6.5% BUR.LN (Burford Capital £3.33, +0.20)
+5.1% BWE.NO (BW Energy NOK61.30, +3.00) -- secures 25‑year extension to 2053 of Dussafu production licence offshore Gabon
+4.4% VOLO.SS (Volati SEK83.60, +3.50)
+3.8% DNO.NO (DNO ASA NOK21.52, +0.78) -- announces start-up of the Symra field offshore Norway nine months ahead of schedule
+3.5% BOL.FP (Bolloré €5.00, +0.17) -- Pershing Square submits proposal to acquire all outstanding shares of Universal Music Group
+3.4% OCI.NA (OCI NV €3.52, +0.12) -- board authorizes management to consider selling Methanex shares from time to time
+3.2% EQNR.NO (Equinor NOK411.80, +12.70) -- DNO announces start-up of the Symra field offshore Norway nine months ahead of schedule
+2.2% HTWS.LN (Helios Towers £1.93, +0.04)
+2.2% MEGP.LN (ME Group International £1.40, +0.03)
+1.6% INW.IM (Infrastrutture Wireless Italiane €7.31, +0.11) -- resumed outperform at Oddo
+1.6% NEDAP.NA (Nedap NV €82.50, +1.30) -- Q1 revenue
+1.1% WAWI.NO (Wallenius Wilhelmsen NOK127.00, +1.40) -- announces agreement around the put and call options related to HMG's 20% ownership in EUKOR
+1.0% KETL.LN (Strix Group £0.37, -0.00)
+0.9% PUB.FP (Publicis Groupe €73.10, +0.62)
+0.7% AJB.LN (AJ Bell £4.89, +0.04)
+0.5% AFX.GR (Carl Zeiss Meditec €24.96, +0.12)
Notable Decliners
-23.1% LAT.FP (Latecoere €0.02, -0.00) -- FY earnings
-8.1% LDO.IM (Leonardo €57.21, -5.05) -- Italy set to name replacement for Leonardo CEO Roberto Cingolani as soon as this week -- Bloomberg
-4.9% VCP.LN (Victoria £0.39, -0.02) -- announces €34.4M sale and leaseback of Belgian distribution centre
-4.8% CNE.LN (Capricorn Energy £3.14, -0.16)
-4.3% ASML.NA (ASML Holding €1,111.00, -50.00) -- US lawmakers proposed new restrictions on chipmaking equipment exports to China
-3.9% STLAM.IM (Stellantis €6.32, -0.26) -- Ottawa reject Stellantis Chinese EV assembly plan for Brampton
-3.4% FUTR.LN (Future Plc £2.76, -0.10)
-3.4% RECSI.NO (REC Silicon NOK0.27, -0.01) -- rights issue preliminary results
-1.9% BRE.IM (Brembo €8.07, -0.16) -- eyes ~$1.0B U.S. acquisition of Tenneco suspension unit -- Corriere
-1.8% ABDN.LN (Aberdeen Group £1.92, -0.03)
-0.5% HTG.LN (Hunting £4.89, -0.03) -- order
-0.2% INGA.NA (ING Groep €22.91, -0.04) -- terminates sale agreement for its Russian business; any alternative exit scenario to have a financial impact broadly similar
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: Evotec (EVT.GR), R&S Group Holding (RSGN.SW)
UK: Aptitude Software Group (APDT.LN)
Trading Update:
France: SpineGuard (ALSGD.FP)
Nordics: islandsbanki (ISB.IR)
Traffic: Icelandair Group (ICEAIR.IR)
European macro releases expected for tomorrow:
Eurozone Feb retail sales, PPI, Germany Feb factory orders, Mar construction PMI. France Feb trade balance, Switzerland Mar unemployment rate, UK Mar construction PMI
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone
Apr Sentix Economic Index (19.2) vs consensus n/a and prior (3.1)
Mar Services PMI 50.2 vs consensus 50.1 and prior 51.9
UK Mar Services PMI 50.5 vs consensus 51.2 and prior 53.9
Spain Mar Services PMI 53.3 vs consensus 50.8 and prior 51.9
Italy Mar Services PMI 48.8 vs consensus 51.0 and prior 52.3
France Mar Services PMI 48.8 vs consensus 48.3 and prior 49.6
Germany Mar Services PMI 50.9 vs consensus 51.2 and prior 53.5
Sweden Mar
Preliminary CPI +0.6% y/y vs consensus +1.0% and prior +0.5%
Services PMI 55.7 vs consensus 53.4 and prior revised 48.7 from 48.3
Markets:
WTI Crude (May 26): +$3.89 or +3.46% to $116.30
€-$ +0.0031 or +0.27% to 1.1575
£-$ +0.0013 or +0.10% to 1.3248
€-£ +0.0014 to 0.8736
S&P 500 (0.83%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +4.20%
DAX: (6.41%)
CAC: (2.95%)
MIB: +1.04%
Stoxx 600: (0.27%)
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