Apr 08 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equities closed higher across the region Wednesday following the ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US. The strongest gains were in technology-orientated benchmarks in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan, while Hong Kong and mainland China were also substantially higher. Australia and New Zealand gained, India is currently up almost 4%, Southeast Asia benchmarks were also strong. US futures indicate a strong open, European benchmarks sharply higher opening trades. US dollar lower, NZD leading Asia currencies higher after RBNZ announced a 'hawkish hold', rupee also surged even before RBI decision, yuan at a three-year high. Treasury yields weaker across tenors, JGB and other Asia sovereign yields all lower with several reaching pre-war levels. Brent crude futures 13% lower at $94/bl, WTI down 15%. Precious metals all higher on dollar weakness, base metals gaining on ceasefire news. Cryptocurrencies steady.
Asia equities gapped higher at the bell on news the US and Iran had agreed a two-week ceasefire to allow negotiations for a permanent deal to take place. Crude prices dropped significantly alongside other commodities after Tehran confirmed it would allow safe passage through the Straits of Hormuz although analysts warned it would take many weeks or even months for the supply disruptions to unwind and prices to fall back to pre-war levels. The dollar also fell to give Asia currencies a boost and equities and extra bit of tailwind, with the New Zealand dollar and rupee both receiving extra support from 'hawkish hold' decisions on interest rates from their respective central banks.
In other regional developments, the IMF said it was set to upgrade 2026 GDP growth forecasts before the war but that the trajectory has now shifted to a downgrade. Japan's nominal wages grew 3.3% y/y in February, well above expectations and likely to keep the BOJ on a rate hike course. South Korea posted a record current account surplus and the largest m/m increase driven by strong semiconductor exports. Taiwan said its forex reserves dropped the most in 15 years during March and Indonesia posted a three-year low in reserves as they defended their respective currencies. The EconomicTimes reported India and New Zealand are expected to sign a free trade agreement on 24-April.
Kioxia (285A.JP) is said to be mulling its first ever dividend as semiconductor profits rise. Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713.JP) said servers at its Philippine unit have been impacted by a ransomware attack. Sony Group (6758.JP) is to restructure its Pictures Entertainment unit, will lead to hundreds of job cuts in television and film units. CK Hutchison (1.HK) has begun arbitration against AP Moller-Maersk following Panama's forced takeover of its two ports in the country. China Vanke (2202.HK) is looking to extend payment on a CNY2B bond due 23-Apr by offering upfront repayment of 40% of principal. Zhipu (Knowledge Atlas, 2513.HK) has raised the cost of access to its most advanced AI model for the second time this year following a surge in demand; stock sharply higher. Santos (STO.AU) said it will restart its Barossa gas field production later in April helping to increase supplies to Asia.
Digest:
Trump agrees to suspend bombing Iran for two weeks:
On Truth Social, President Trump announced he accepted Pakistan's proposal to suspend bombing Iran for two weeks, conditional on Iran immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz. With military objectives already achieved, reasserted they are "very far along" with a long-term peace plan. Acknowledged Iran's 10-point proposal as a workable basis for negotiation.
Press reporting Iran and Israel also agreed, Iran media said first round of negotiations to begin Friday in Islamabad.
Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed acceptance and will allow safe passage for the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks via coordination with Iran's armed forces (Axios).
Supreme National Security Council was quoted as claiming major concessions -- US agreed in principle to lift all primary and secondary sanctions, while also accepting Iran's nuclear enrichment and continued control over the Strait.
However, BBC's coverage indicated the enrichment part was not in the 10-point plan, which did call for lifting sanctions while including the US dealbreakers of reopening the Strait and fully committing to not seek possession of any nuclear weapons.
Follows barrage of headlines in the leadup. Bloomberg cited President Trump in a Fox News interview indicating he was in "heated negotiations" and could not comment further when asked about Pakistan's late-breaking proposal for a two-week extension of the Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump earlier threatened to wipe out Iran's "whole civilization" as the US continued attacks on Kharg Island.
Recall Trump previously described Iran's proposal as significant but "not good enough." Iran had rejected the idea of a temporary truce, and their plan emphasized need for permanent end to hostilities.
Main sticking point was said to be the path by which a ceasefire would lead to a permanent resolution. Also called for ending hostilities in other locations such as Lebanon. Other demands included reparations for reconstruction and lifting of sanctions.
Restoring oil supplies won't be easy, prices to stay high for now:
Axios highlighted the process of restoring oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz won't happen quickly or easily, auguring for continued high prices and scarcity among importing countries. Key factor to watch will be whether the US-Iran ceasefire deal gives tanker operators enough certainty to resume voyages through the Strait. Cited thoughts that: insurance for tankers needs to be reestablished and is unclear as to what specific conditions Iran may impose, restarting facilities and shut-in fields could take weeks to months, while repairing damaged oil facilities may take up to six months to get operating rates back to pre-war levels -- years in the case for Qatar's LNG exporting infrastructure. Before the ceasefire, EIA warned fuel prices could keep rising for months even after the Strait reopens and revised up its Brent spot price forecast to average $96 this year from $78.84 (Reuters). Also sees retail gasoline and diesel prices to keep rising. Predicted full restoration of oil flows through the Strait will take months even after the war ends. Reuters reported European and Asian refiners are paying record high prices of near $150 a barrel for some crude oil grades, far exceeding futures levels. Earlier, Reuters noted spot premiums for WTI over other crude benchmarks jumped to all-time highs driven by competition among Asian and European refiners. Furthermore, WTI crude futures saw unprecedented magnitude of backwardation reflecting another premium on immediate delivery.
RBI leaves policy repo rate on hold, warns over risks to growth from gulf conflict:
RBI kept its base policy repo rate on hold at 5.25% Wednesday, kept its neutral stance as widely expected, and signaled ongoing support for rupee. MPC vote was unanimous. Governor Malhotra said Iran conflict heightened uncertainty, growth outlook tilted to downside (EconomicTimes). Said India economic fundamentals were stronger than in previous crisis, high frequency indicators suggested continued broad economic growth but insurance costs, supply chain disruptions could impair pace of expansion. Added high crude prices may lead to imported inflation and widen current account deficit; fertilizer, energy market disruption may adversely impact fiscal deficit. Warned adverse spillovers from global financial markets could tighten domestic conditions, raise borrowing costs. On inflation, bank said headline inflation remains contained but conflict added upside risks, warned supply shock could easily turn into demand shock over medium term. Kept FY27 GDP outlook unchanged at 6.9%; Q2 lowered to 6.8% from 6.9%, Q3 to 6.7% from 7.0%.
RBNZ on hold as widely expected:
RBNZ left OCR unchanged at 2.25%, as expected and restated it will look through initial inflationary impact of surging fuel prices, in decision announced just hours after US and Iran agreed to two-week ceasefire. Said decision to hold balances potential benefits of responding pre-emptively to the risk of higher medium-term inflation against the cost of unnecessarily stifling the economic recovery. Added net impact of Middle East conflict on medium-term inflation pressures in New Zealand will depend on how countervailing factors play out. MPC envisages gradually moving OCR to more neutral levels if increase in near-term inflation largely temporary as activity recovers; meanwhile will be vigilant to risks and act decisively and timely to increase OCR to re-anchor inflation expectations if there are signs of significant second-round inflationary effects or increases in medium-term inflation expectations. Bank also said weak demand and excess capacity should constrain degree to which higher costs from the oil shock can be passed on, highlighting differences compared to Covid-19 and war in Ukraine in 2022 that added to inflation pressure.
Japan calls for extra budget emerge on risk of sustained Middle East impacts:
No sooner has parliament passed the delayed FY26 general budget -- already a record JPY122.31T ($767B) -- that calls for a supplementary budget have begun to emerge as sustained pressure on fuel prices from Middle East impacts risks depleting available funding for existing subsidies, and with no specific measures in the budget to address the issue. Nikkei noted gasoline subsidies were reinstated from 19-Mar as a measure to curb effects from the closure of Strait of Hormuz. Designed to keep retail gasoline prices capped at JPY170/L, prices have been subsidized by JPY49.8/L since 2-Apr. However, the scheme was originally projected to provide only a JPY30 cushion. Hence, monthly outlays have blown out to around JPY500B vs anticipated JPY300B. At the current pace, existing reserves would be used up in just two months. FY26 general budget includes a JPY1T top-up for the emergency fund, though this would only buy another two months if used entirely for gasoline, when the reserve is meant to cover broader unforeseen circumstances such as natural disasters. Article noted members from both ruling and opposition parties coming to terms with the duration of Middle East impacts, sharing the expectation that additional funding will be necessary. However, Finance Minister Katayama has so far said they have already secured enough funding to maintain fuel subsidies for the time being and argued it is premature to be considering an extra budget.
Notable Gainers:
+30% 047040.KS (Daewoo Engineering & Construction): construction sector move on US-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement
+18.6% 285A.JP (Kioxia Holdings): reportedly considers first dividend on rising semiconductor memory profits
+17.6% 5801.JP (Furukawa Electric Co.): upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
+9.9% 2383.TT (Elite Material): reports March revenue NT$12.01B, +56.6% y/y
+7.1% 005930.KS (Samsung Electronics): semiconductor sector move on US-Iran two-week ceasefire agreement
+7.1% 2726.JP (PAL GROUP Holdings): reports FY results; revenue ¥234.70B vs FactSet ¥235.10B
+6.6% 543526.IN (Life Insurance Corp. of India): to consider bonus shares issue at its 13-Apr board meeting
Notable Decliners:
-7.0% 1377.JP (Sakata Seed): reports 9M results
-6.6% 000250.KS (SAM CHUN DANG PHARM): reportedly claims 100% patent ownership despite holding zero shares in Summit Biotech, which holds patent for S-PASS
-6.2% 1605.JP (INPEX Corp): Oil price plunges on US-Iran ceasefire agreement
-0.6% 373220.KS (LG Energy Solution): reports preliminary Q1 results; operating profit (incl. AMPC) (KRW207.80B) vs StreetAccount (KRW158.67B)
Data:
Economic:
Japan February
Average nominal wages +3.3% y/y vs consensus +2.7% and revised +2.5% in prior month
Real wages +1.9% y/y vs consensus +1.3% and revised +0.7% in prior month
Current account balance ¥3,932.7B vs consensus ¥3,479.8B and revised ¥931.0B in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: 2,878.86 or +5.39% to 56308.42
Hang Seng: 776.49 or +3.09% to 25893.02
Shanghai Composite: 104.83 or +2.69% to 3995.00
Shenzhen Composite: 109.54 or +4.35% to 2627.92
ASX200: 223.00 or +2.55% to 8951.80
KOSPI: 377.56 or +6.87% to 5872.34
SENSEX: 2,870.23 or +3.85% to 77486.81
Currencies:
$-¥: (1.44) or (0.90%) to 158.1850
$-KRW: (18.81) or (1.26%) to 1477.8500
A$-$: +0.01 or +1.22% to 0.7054
$-INR: (0.27) or (0.29%) to 92.5845
$-CNY: (0.03) or (0.48%) to 6.8247
This information and data is provided for general informational purposes only. The Bank of New York Mellon and our information suppliers do not warrant or guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information or data. We provide no advice nor recommendation or endorsement with respect to any company or securities. We do not undertake any obligation to update or amend this information or data. Nothing herein shall be deemed to constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities.
Please refer to "Terms Of Use".
DEPOSITARY RECEIPTS:
NOT FDIC, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY INSURED
MAY LOSE VALUE
NO BANK, STATE OR FEDERAL AGENCY GUARANTEE