Apr 21 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equities traded mostly higher Tuesday as technology stocks again outperformed. South Korea's Kospi and Taiwan's Taiex closed at fresh record highs, Nikkei 225 also hovered close to its record high. Gains in Greater China, India trading strongly. Southeast Asia mixed but with a positive tilt, Australia closed a few points lower. US futures higher, Europe opened flat. US dollar unchanged, won and NZD stronger, quiet elsewhere. Treasuries mixed, JGB yields lower across tenors. Crude oil prices lower with Brent dipping below $95/bl. Precious metals lower, base metals under some pressure.
Asia equities again powered higher by technology stocks and related benchmarks with an increasing divergence between regional technology sectors and just about everything else. Tech names now so dominate in terms of market cap and earnings growth in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan's Nikkei 225 that any positive move in the sector enough to drag national benchmark indices higher, and also enough to take the MSCI Asia Pac ex-Japan index to a fresh record high today. Crude oil prices steady today despite uncertainty surrounding middle east talks, the Strait of Hormuz staying closed, and President Trump signaling there would be no truce extension if peace talks failed to find an agreement.
Another day of few catalysts to alter the overarching market theme of technology stocks battling it out with energy prices for market-driver domination. The Bank of Korea's new governor said in his inaugural speech monetary policy needs to be cautious and flexible as the country grapples with higher inflation and lower growth in the wake of the Iran conflict. China's youth unemployment rate rose to 16.9%, a new four-month high on subdued hiring demand. New Zealand CPI rose to 0.9% in Q4, slightly ahead of consensus. India's rupee weakened notably after the RBI late Monday relaxed month-long restrictions on forex derivative trading.
Nojima (6501.JP) is to buy an 80.1% stake in Hitachi Global Life Solution's (0P0TQ1-E) home appliance unit for ¥110B. Toyota Motors (7203.JP) is to reduce overseas production by 38K units by November amid the Iran conflict. Police have applied for the arrest of HYBE's (352820.KS) chairman over allegations of fraudulent trading. Victory Giant Technology (2476.HK) debuted on the Hong Kong stock market and advanced almost50% after raising $2.6B in its IPO. Samsung SDI (006400.KS) said it is to supply high-nickel and nickel-cobalt manganese batteries for Mercedes Benz' next generation SUVs, could be worth KRW10T ($6.8B); LG Energy Solution (373220.KS) will deepen partnership with Mercedes after it unveiled a full electric version of its C-Class late Monday; both stocks substantially higher. Vedanta (500295.IN) set a record date of 1-May for its five-way demerger as part of its long-term plan to split up and list its separate entities.
Digest:
Trump says unlikely to extend ceasefire as US and Iran weigh talks in Pakistan:
More mixed signaling about prospects of resumption of US-Iran negotiations. In latest round of media interviews, President Trump said unlikely to extend ceasefire and repeated warning bombing will restart if Iran doesn't agree to deal (Bloomberg, PBS, NY Post). Confirmed VP Vance will lead US delegation to Pakistan and said he had no problem personally meeting Iran's leaders. US sources told Axios Trump could extend ceasefire if signs of progress. While Iran hasn't publicly confirmed its attendance, media sources have said Tehran is sending over delegation to Pakistan.
Trump sounding optimistic about though remains unclear extent to which gaps on key sticking points have been bridged, particularly Iran's demands on uranium enrichment, fate of HEU stockpiles and Strait of Hormuz control. Complicating matters has been public emergence of divide between Iranian negotiators and IRGC hardliners. Continued US blockade and seizure of Iran-linked tanker, Trump's barrage of social media posts and contradictory messaging also said to be fueling Iranian mistrust (CNN, Axios, Reuters).
Some thought that best case outcome is a framework deal that reopens Strait of Hormuz and ends hostilities but leaves finer details for future talks. Despite public displays of bellicosity, markets continue to largely price in de-escalation with ceasefire holding up and both sides reportedly with little appetite to resume conflict given economic consequences incurred thus far.
BOJ likely to stay on hold next week:
Reuters cited multiple sources as saying BOJ is likely to keep policy unchanged next week amid fading prospects of a near-term end to the Middle East war. While a decision could be a close call, dependent on US-Iran peace negotiations, MPC said to be currently leaning towards maintaining a wait-and-see stance. One source suggested a rate hike is now unlikely given an April move has been priced out of the markets. Yet, BOJ is likely to signal readiness to hike as early as June in the face of mounting inflationary pressures. Article recalled developments up to this point, with elevated rate hike expectations rapidly diminishing as war began and hopes for an early end to conflict faded. BOJ began shifting away from hawkish communications as uncertainties emerged. Direct rhetoric from Governor Ueda has been particularly impactful and markets noticed a distinct lack of clear rate hike signals. Even if there is no change in April, the case for a June move is still seen as strong with the policy rate still below neutral and real rates deeply negative, which pose behind-the-curve risks. Sources confirmed an earlier report indicating the Outlook Report will contain a downward revision to GDP growth forecast and upward revision to inflation to reflect the impact of higher fuel prices (though did not specify the year). Core economic assessment and forward guidance said to remain unchanged. Nikkei QUICK commentary echoed the report, adding that OIS market pricing for April has fallen to about 8% Tuesday from 17% yesterday, while June odds have fallen though remain elevated at some 70%.
New Bank of Korea governor says monetary policy needs to be cautious and flexible:
Bank of Korea's new governor Shin Hyun-song said late Tuesday bank needs to pursue 'prudent and cautious' monetary policy amid heightened uncertainties caused by Iran conflict (Yonhap). Said it was necessary to be flexible amid higher global oil prices that have caused upward pressure on inflation, downward pressure on growth, and triggered heightened financial market volatility and risk of financial imbalances. Shin said bank will improve effectiveness of monetary policy by reassessing available policy tools to ease trade offs between policy variables; would actively use market-based price indicators to strengthen early warning capabilities. Prior to inauguration speech, Shin had said it was too early for BoK to move decisively in one direction or other, said bank's decision to hold rates steady this month was 'strategic patience'. Shin began four-year term as governor Tuesday, will chair first policy meeting on 28-May.
AI trade propels South Korean stocks to fresh record high:
Strong run on Asia's tech-heavy benchmarks continues with South Korea's Kospi extending month-to-date gain to 26%, reaching fresh record high. Strength remains largely driven by SK Hynix (000660.KS) and Samsung Electronics (005930.KS), up 52% and 31% respectively so far this month.
More discussion about multi-year memory shortage fueling strong pricing increases (Nikkei), underpinning bullish views on Korean stocks. JP Morgan raised year-end Kospi base case target to 7,000 (bull case 8,500), implying ~10% upside from current levels. Firms maintaining view on higher-for-longer memory up-cycle, translating to 4-5x EPS growth at Samsung and SK Hynix in 2026 compared to 2025. At same time, Samsung and SK Hynix trading on undemanding forward P/Es of 5.6x and 4.8x respectively.
South Korean stocks experienced record $23.8B in foreign outflows during March, though sentiment has turned with $4.2B flowing back in this month (Reuters). JP Morgan noted rebound of active foreign inflows into Samsung and SK Hynix, arguing ~70 bp overweight positioning in the two stocks is relatively light vs earnings expectations.
As part of market diversification efforts to give traders more options, South Korea financial regulators authorized 22-May listing of 2x leveraged ETFs according to certain conditions that make only Samsung and SK Hynix eligible (Chosun).
Latest economic data also shows no letup in unrelenting foreign demand for chips with South Korean semiconductor shipments up 183% y/y in first 20 days of April, up from 151% over March (Korea Herald).
Rupee weakens as RBI partially rolls back forex trading restrictions:
India's rupee weakened 0.3% to 93.3 per dollar in Tuesday trade after RBI partially unwound recent forex trading restrictions designed to stabilize forex markets (Bloomberg). Bank said it would withdraw measures announced on 1-Apr that stopped lenders from offering rupee non-deliverable forwards to clients, which is used extensively in offshore trades. It also gave domestic banks some say in related-party trades including rollover and rebooking contracts. However, bank also but kept $100M cap on open positions launched on 27-Mar, which triggered speculative arbitrage trades that pushed rupee to record low. Reuters cited analysts saying RBI move late Monday effectively allows corporates to arbitrage between onshore, offshore markets, although spread between two now much narrower than at start of April. HSBC India CEO said RBI decision signals beginning of return to normal market liquidity having achieved objective (CNBCTV).
Notable Gainers:
+49.6% 2476.HK (Victory Giant Technology (HuiZhou)): debuts +57.2% at HK$330/share on HKEx
+14.2% 7419.JP (Nojima): considering acquisition of at least a majority stake in Hitachi Global Life Solutions
+5.8% 8585.JP (Orient): Strategic Capital makes shareholder proposal to Mizuho Financial, Orient Corporation; questions relationship between companies
+4.1% 600188.CH (Yankuang Energy Group): reports Q1 commercial coal production
+3.6% 600941.CH (China Mobile): reports Q1 mobile customers net adds +3.8M
+3.5% 8035.JP (Tokyo Electron): provides earthquake update; two plants in Tohoku region operating as usual
+0.8% 9696.HK (Tianqi Lithium): guides Q1 net income attributable CNY1.70-2.00B
Notable Decliners:
-6.7% 3038.JP (Kobe Bussan): March SSS turns negative after multi-year growth trend
-5.7% 300394.CH (Suzhou TFC Optical Communication): reports Q1; headline figures below FactSet estimates
-3.2% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): reportedly to reduce overseas production by 38K units by November amid tensions in Middle East
-2.4% 1368.HK (Xtep International Holdings): Q1 mainland China operational update for core Xtep brand; retail sell-through growth of low single digit y/y
-2.4% 352820.KS (HYBE Co.): police reportedly apply for arrest warrant for HYBE chairman Bang Si-hyuk over alleged fraudulent trading
Data:
Economic:
New Zealand Q1
CPI +0.9% q/q vs consensus +0.8% and +0.6% in Q4 (10:45 NZST)
CPI +3.1% y/y vs consensus +2.9% and +3.1% in Q4
Markets:
Nikkei: 524.28 or +0.89% to 59349.17
Hang Seng: 126.41 or +0.48% to 26487.48
Shanghai Composite: 2.95 or +0.07% to 4085.08
Shenzhen Composite: (0.93) or (0.03%) to 2761.35
ASX200: (3.90) or (0.04%) to 8949.40
KOSPI: 169.38 or +2.72% to 6388.47
SENSEX: 672.13 or +0.86% to 79192.43
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.26 or +0.16% to 159.0820
$-KRW: (1.38) or (0.09%) to 1470.8900
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.42%) to 0.7148
$-INR: +0.47 or +0.50% to 93.5697
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.02%) to 6.8159
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