Apr 30 ,2026
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly lower, extending losses seen in Wednesday's session. Focus on heavy earnings newsflow in the region, including a number of banks as well as the likes of BASF, ArcelorMittal, Volkswagen and Michelin. Also focus on BOE and ECB policy decisions. BOE interest rate decision at 12noon BST, press conf at 12:30. No change expected in the 3.75% benchmark interest rate. ECB interest rate decision at 14:15CET, press conf at 14:45. No change expected in the 2.15% benchmark interest rate.
Latest US-Iran headlines signaling lack of diplomatic traction after President Trump publicly rejected Tehran's recent offer to reopen Strait of Hormuz in return for ending blockade and delaying nuclear talks. Reaffirmed to Axios that he views extended US naval blockade as primary source of leverage, underlining belief that blockade is succeeding in choking Iran economically with oil well shut-ins looming. Trump said negotiations are ongoing and claimed Iran has come a long way but question is whether they are willing to go far enough, repeating that any agreement must include commitment to abandon nuclear weapons. No signs Iran's hardliners willing to empower negotiators to discuss nuclear issue and while Trump reportedly reluctant to restart conflict, sources told Axios CENTCOM has prepared plan for "short and powerful" strikes on Iran in bid to break deadlock in negotiations. Stalemate further clouding likelihood of near-term resumption of crude flows through Strait of Hormuz while potential disruption to Iranian oil production due to blockade threatens to add to supply pressures. Crude extending rally with WTI and Brent surging back towards late March highs following recent discussion about market complacency surrounding extent of disruption to physical crude market. Oil rally corresponding with spike in bond yields amid pickup in inflation concerns.
Asia equities mixed Thursday. China manufacturing PMI maintains slight growth trajectory, nonmanufacturing slips
US tech majors reported after market close. META earnings spotlighted attention to larger-than-expected capex raise, component and data center cost pressures. GOOGL's upgraded capex projections viewed favorably amid acceleration in cloud revenue growth. MSFT Azure growth just ahead of consensus, drawing another contrast to larger-than-expected capex upgrade and memory cost pressures. AMZN cloud revenue growth a highlight, maintains capex guidance. QCOM said unnamed major hyperscaler to begin using company's data center chips later this year. Also guided turnaround in China smartphone sales.
European macro data releases include Germany Q1 preliminary GDP, Apr unemployment rate, Mar retail sales, France Q1 preliminary GDP, Apr preliminary CPI, Mar consumer spending, PPI, Italy Q1 preliminary GDP, Apr preliminary CPI, Mar unemployment rate, Spain Q1 preliminary GDP, Eurozone Q1 preliminary GDP, Apr flash CPI, Mar unemployment rate, Switzerland Apr leading indicator - KOF, UK Apr house price index - Nationwide, Norway Apr retail sales, Denmark Mar unemployment rate, Finland Q1 preliminary GDP, Apr preliminary HICP, Netherlands Q1 preliminary GDP, Mar PPI, Greece Mar PPI, Feb retail sales, Portugal Q1 preliminary GDP, Apr preliminary CPI, Austria Q1 preliminary GDP, Apr preliminary CPI, Mar PPI
Also on today's agenda: Denmark central bank's Thomsen speech at 11:00CET at Danish Chamber of Commerce (Dansk Erhverv) whilst BOE's David Bailey takes part in a fireside chat at 14:30BST at International Swaps and Derivatives Assn AGM. Turkey central bank minutes of last MPC meeting. In the UK, business in the House of Commons gets underway at 9:30BST with MPs questions on business and trade. EU's Kallas attends the Nordic-Baltic eight (NB8) foreign ministers' meeting and EU's Tzitzikostas delivers a speech at event on implementing the EU industrial maritime strategy and the EU port strategy. UK Mar car production - SMMT are due.
Politics/Macro/World News
Trump rejects Iran's proposal to reopen Hormuz and lift US blockade first, postpone nuclear talks to later stage; CENTCOM preparing possible new strikes -- Axios
UK firms' worries about economy rise by most since 2020, Lloyds survey shows - Reuters
Netherlands Apr Preliminary CPI +2.8% y/y vs consensus +2.6% and prior +2.7% (00:30ET)
Finland Q1 Preliminary GDP +1.3% y/y vs consensus +0.2% and prior +0.1%
Top company news
Earnings/updates
Benelux
MT.NA (ArcelorMittal) -- reports Q1 EPS $0.76 vs consensus $0.69; 2026 capex guidance remains unchanged
INGA.NA (ING Groep) -- reports Q1 net profit €1.56B vs consensus €1.43B; confirms outlook for 2026 and 2027; announces €1.0B share buyback
UMG.NA (Universal Music Group) -- reports Q1 adj EBITDA €636M vs consensus €661M
UMG.NA (Universal Music Group) -- Follow-up: Universal Music Group updates on Capital Allocation and Management Initiatives
IMCD.NA (IMCD) -- reports Q1 Operating EBITA €130M vs StreetAccount €123.9M
APAM.NA (Aperam) -- reports Q1 EPS €0.04 vs FactSet €0.10 [2 est, €0.07-0.13]
ARCAD.NA ARCADIS reports Q1 operating EBITDA €127M vs year-ago €133M; FY26 guidance unchanged
France
CAP.FP (Capgemini) -- reports Q1 revenue €5.94B vs StreetAccount €5.83B
BNP.FP (BNP Paribas) -- Group enters agreement with Holmarcom Finance Company for the sale of BMCI in Morocco; terms not disclosed
BNP.FP (BNP Paribas) -- reports Q1 net income €3.22B vs consensus €2.93B
ACA.FP (Credit Agricole) -- reports Q1 EPS €0.52 vs FactSet €0.54 [6 est, €0.49-0.64] (€17.23);
SU.FP (Schneider Electric) --reports Q1 revenue €9.77B vs consensus €9.76B; ; Organic growth +11.2% vs consensus +10.1%2026 target reaffirmed
ML.FP (Cie Generale des Etablissements Michelin SA) -- reports Q1 revenue €6.20B vs consensus €6.11B; FY guidance unchanged
GLE.FP (Societe Generale) -- reports Q1 group net income €1.70B vs consensus €1.55B
CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon) -- reports Q1 adjusted EBITDA €110.1M, +10% vs year-ago €99.8M
RCO.FP (Remy Cointreau) -- reports Q4 revenue €199.9M vs consensus €202.3M; FY guidance confirmed
TNG.FP (Transgene) -- reports Q1 revenue €1.4M vs year-ago €2.5M
NK.FP (Imerys) -- reports Q1 current net income €21M vs year-ago €31M
ALBPS.FP (Biophytis) -- postpones publication of financial statements
ALVIO.FP (Valerio Therapeutics) -- reports FY revenue €2.6M vs year-ago €1.8M
UK
STAN.LN (Standard Chartered) -- reports Q1 EPS $0.74 vs consensus $0.59
DACH
BAS.GR (BASF) -- reports Q1 adj EPS €1.32 vs consensus €1.02; maintains FY26 forecast and currently impossible to reliably quantify the resulting effects of conflict in the Middle East
VOW.GR (Volkswagen) -- reports Q1 net income €1.56B vs FactSet €1.76B [3 est, €1.54-2.18B]; guides FY26
P911.GR (Porsche) -- reports Q1 EPS €0.43 vs FactSet €0.40 [4 est, €0.33-0.47]; confirms FY guidance; announces Strategy 2035
KGX.GR (Kion Group) -- reports Q1 EPS €0.69 vs consensus €0.67
DHL.GR (DHL Group) -- reports Q1 EPS €0.72 vs consensus €0.68; confirms guidance
NEM.GR (Nemetschek) -- reports Q1 EPS €0.52 vs FactSet €0.51 [6 est, €0.47-0.55]; FY 2026 Outlook Fully Confirmed
TLX.GR (Talanx) -- reports preliminary Q1 net income €774M vs FactSet €737M [1 est]
OERL.SW (OC Oerlikon Corp.) -- reports Q1 sales CHF378M vs FactSet CHF367.5M [4 est, CHF361-372M]
ACT.GR (AlzChem Group) -- AlzChem Group reports Q1 EBITDA €32.3M vs FactSet €30.5M [1 est]; reaffirms FY guidance
OMV.AV (OMV) -- reports Q1 clean CCS operating result €1.03B vs consensus €1.00B
Nordics
TGS.NO (TGS-NOPEC) -- reports Q1 EPS ($0.05) vs FactSet $0.15 [7 est, $0.08-0.25]; confirms FY guidance
AKSO.NO (Aker Solutions) -- reports Q1 adjusted net income NOK634M vs FactSet NOK622.3M (
Spain
BBVA.SM (BBVA) -- reports Q1 net income €2.99B vs consensus €2.80B
CABK.SM (CaixaBank) -- reports Q1 net income €1.57B vs consensus €1.47B
PHM.SM (Pharma Mar) -- reports Q1 net income €1.5M vs FactSet €4.0M [3 est, €2.2-7.5M]
MAP.SM (MAPFRE) -- reports Q1 adjusted net income €310.9M vs FactSet €357.5M
Italy
PRY.IM Prysmian reports Q1 Adjusted EBITDA €601M vs consensus €612M; FY26 guidance confirmed
Also reporting today
Earnings:
Austria: Erste Group Bank (EBS.AV), AMAG Austria Metall (AMAG.AV), Polytec Holding (PYT.AV) Benelux: CTP NV (CTPNV.NA), Ebusco Holding (EBUS.NA) Denmark: Danske Bank (DANSKE.DC), Brødrene A & O Johansen (AOJ.B.DC), cBrain (CBRAIN.DC) Finland: Aktia Bank (AKTIA.FH) France: Ayvens (AYV.FP), Technip Energies (TE.FP), Air France-KLM (AF.FP), TF1 (TFI.FP), X-FAB Silicon Foundries (XFAB.FP) Germany: MTU Aero Engines (MTX.GR), Aixtron (AIXA.GR), Fielmann Group (FIE.GR), Puma (PUM.GR), Befesa (BFSA.GR), Drägerwerk (DRW3.GR), LPKF Laser & Electronics (LPK.GR), Sto (STO3.GR), Takkt (TTK.GR), Global Fashion Group (GFG.GR), Nabaltec (NTG.GR), FamiCord (V3V.GR) Greece: Athens Water Supply & Sewage Co. (EYDAP.GA) Italy: Stellantis (STLAM.IM), BasicNet (BAN.IM) Norway: Kongsberg Gruppen (KOG.NO), Subsea 7 (SUBC.NO), Sparebanken Norge (SBNOR.NO), Elkem (ELK.NO), Aker BioMarine (AKBM.NO), SATS (SATS.NO), Pareto Bank (PARB.NO), Sparebanken Møre (MORG.NO), Sea1 Offshore (SEA1.NO), Rana Gruber (RANA.NO), Kongsberg Automotive (KOA.NO), Komplett (KOMPL.NO), The Kingfish Company (KING.NO) Spain: Repsol (REP.SM), Cellnex Telecom (CLNX.SM), Logista Integral (LOG.SM), FAES Farma (FAE.SM) Sweden: Paradox Interactive (PDX.SS), ITAB Shop Concept (ITAB.SS), Viking Supply Ships (VSSAB.B.SS), Eltel (ELTEL.SS), Q-linea (QLINEA.SS), KDventures AB (KDV.B.SS) Switzerland: WISeKey International Holding (WIHN.SW) UK: Whitbread (WTB.LN), SEPLAT Energy (SEPL.LN), Synthomer (SYNT.LN)
Trading Update:
Benelux: CVC Capital Partners (CVC.NA) DACHs: Delivery Hero (DHER.GR), Cie Financiere Tradition (CFT.SW) France: Wavestone (WAVE.FP), 74Software (74SW.FP), Groupe Samse (SAMS.FP), Akwel (AKW.FP), Groupe LDLC (ALLDL.FP) Nordics: Afarak Group (AFAGR.FH), Minesto (MINEST.SS) Southern Europe: Stellantis (STLAM.IM) UK: Unilever (ULVR.LN), Glencore (GLEN.LN), Weir Group (WEIR.LN), Beazley (BEZ.LN), Persimmon (PSN.LN), Inchcape (INCH.LN), OSB Group (OSB.LN), Lancashire Holdings (LRE.LN), MONY Group (MONY.LN), International Personal Finance (IPF.LN), ASA International Group (ASAI.LN) Other: Kingspan Group (KRX.ID), Kerry Group (KRZ.ID)
CMD/Events: Hexagon (HEXA.B.SS), cBrain (CBRAIN.DC)
M&A
TPG (TPG, Inc.) -- Danone in advanced talks to acquire TPG's Made Group - Australian Financial Review
AZE.BB (Azelis) -- Gimv acquires 5% of Azelis, terms undisclosed
BNP.FP (BNP Paribas) -- Group enters agreement with Holmarcom Finance Company for the sale of BMCI in Morocco; terms not disclosed
PGHN.SW (Partners Group Holding) -- Partners Group invests in fleet expansion of portfolio company North Star
LAND.SW (Landis+Gyr Group) -- agrees to sell Rhebo GmbH to Everfield Germany GmbH
FRAS.LN (Frasers Group) -- to acquire Frog Bikes - Sky News
Pacific Equity Partners believed to be one of two or three remaining bidders for Qscan - The Australian , citing sources
Healthcare
NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk) -- Novo Nordisk's Denecimig (Mim8) significantly reduced annualized bleeding rate in people with hemophilia A, regardless of inhibitor status, in phase 3 data published in NEJM
GSK.LN (GSK Plc) -- FDA approves sBLA for AREPANRIX (pediatric) with Accelerated Approval and post-marketing requirement
GSK.LN (GSK Plc) -- NICE recommends GSK's Blenrep with bortezomib and dexamethasone for previously treated multiple myeloma
SAN.FP (Sanofi) -- ammounces Belén Garijo to assume her duties as new CEO on 1-May-26
ALEC (Alector) -- to discontinue phase 2 progress-ad trial of Nivisnebart (AL101/GSK4527226) in early Alzheimer's disease following interim futility analysis
ZEAL.DC (Zealand Pharma) -- and Roche to advance petrelintide to Phase 3 trials for chronic weight management
EVT.GR (Evotec) -- announces nomination of new board member; cooperation agreement with MAK Capital
NWRN.SW (Newron Pharmaceuticals) -- U.S. enrollment in ENIGMA-TRS 2 trial of evenamide paused by FDA
B9P1.GR (NovaBay Pharmaceuticals) -- SEC filing: 10-K/A
Other
BP.LN (BP) -- and Venezuela sign MOU for company to explore offshore of Loran for gas - Reuters
UK March car manufacturing (8.2%) y/y to 72,511 units - SMMT
White House officials heading to Venezuela to unveil agreements that could lay the groundwork to operate in the country - Politico
Key rating changes
Upgrades
TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
ANTO.LN (Antofagasta) -- to hold from reduce at Peel Hunt
KNEBV.FH (Kone) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
EQNR.NO (Equinor) -- to hold from sell at SEB
HTRO.SS (Hexatronic Group) -- to buy from hold at SEB
Downgrades
EPI.A.SS (Epiroc) -- to hold from buy at Pareto
DCC.LN (DCC) -- to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets
JET2.LN (Jet2) -- to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank
KNEBV.FH (Kone) -- to sell from hold at Nordea, to hold from buy at ABG Sundal Collier
Data
Nikkei (1.14%) to 59236.24
Hang Seng (1.12%) to 25818.80
Shanghai Composite +0.10% to 4111.75
S&P futures (16.5) vs prior close of 7168.0
€-$ (0.0016) or (0.14%) to 1.1660
$-¥ +0.23 or +0.14% to 160.67
€-¥ +0.08 or +0.04% to 187.36
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