May 04 ,2026
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open higher; note markets are closed today in Ireland and UK for a bank holiday. Asian equities mostly higher Monday with mainland China and Japan offline for Golden Week holiday. S&P 500 futures steady. Treasury cash market shut until London open. Dollar firming against yen and other majors. Crude little changed amid latest developments on US-Iran diplomatic front. Gold and silver weakening. Bitcoin gaining near one-week high.
Trump said US will guide stranded vessels through Strait of Hormuz, though this was met with skepticism with plan reportedly not involving US naval ships and Iranian threat/mines seen as ongoing deterrent absent a peace deal. Iran received US response to its latest offer, which mostly rehashed prior demands to reopen Strait of Hormuz, end blockade, reverse sanctions and remove US bases from region while leaving nuclear talks to later stage. Trump gave conflicting signals on response, telling Israeli media he didn't find it acceptable while later posting on Truth Social about very positive discussions that could lead to something positive.
On the agenda today in Europe, ECB publishes its latest survey of professional forecasters as well as aggregate result of its survey of monetary analysts at 10:00CET, the same time as first Economic Bulletin pre-release. Publication of the ECB Annual Report 2025 at 14:30CET. In macro releases today, Apr manufacturing PMI due for Italy, Sweden, Switzerland and final reads for Eurozone, followed by Eurozone May Sentix economic index.
Light in earnings releases. Overnight, UCB (UCB.BB) announced acquisition of Candid Therapeutics (+CANDID) at total transaction value of up to $2.2B. Further in M&A, ThyssenKrupp (TKA.GR) and Jindal International Steel (532286.IN) mutually agree to pause talks regarding a stake in thyssenkrupp Steel.
Politics/Macro/World News
Trump casts doubts on Iran peace proposal as details emerge - Bloomberg
German chancellor downplays row with Trump after troop drawdown announced -- Reuters
Trump says he is increasing tariffs on car and truck imports from the EU -- BBC
Trump says US navy will 'guide' trapped ships from strait of Hormuz amid 'very positive' talks with Iran -- The Guardian
Greece central bank's Stournaras says concerns about euro zone recession are real and justified amid energy shock - Phileleftheros
UK set to enter talks to join the European Union's $105.9 billion Ukraine loan -- Reuters
Top company news
Earnings/updates
STM.GR (Stabilus) -- final Q2 earnings: net income €9.3M vs year-ago €11.2M
RATO.B.SS (Ratos) -- Q1 EPS SEK0.67 vs FactSet SEK0.48 [5 est, SEK0.37-0.56]
MGNT.RU (Magnit) -- FY net income (RUB16.60B) vs year-ago RUB50.00B
ASA.NO (Atlantic Sapphire) -- Q1 EPS ($5.33) vs year-ago ($17.19
BNOR.NO (BlueNord) -- Q1 pretax income ($1.8M) vs year-ago ($2.3M); prelim Apr production of 43.6 mboepd net vs prior 42.5 mboepd
M&A
UCB.BB (UCB) -- to acquire Candid Therapeutics at total transaction value of up to $2.2B
DEC.LN (Diversified Energy) -- discloses completion of purchase and sale transaction with Sheridan Holding Company III, LLC - 8-K
SPEC.LN (Inspecs Group) -- Bidco 1125 announces offer for Inspecs Group will close for acceptance at 18:00BST on 15-May
TKA.GR (ThyssenKrupp) -- and Jindal International Steel have mutually agreed to pause talks regarding a stake in Steel
BRKN.SW (Burkhalter Holding) -- acquires Progressio Holding GmbH (parent company of anplaq ag); consideration ~38K new registered shares
NIL.B.SS (Nilörngruppen) --- receives SEK77/sh cash offer from Trimco; board recommends acceptance
Healthcare
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- receives Health Canada approval for Fabhalta oral treatment for adults with C3G
GSK.LN (GSK Plc) -- FDA approves Arexvy sBLA for prefilled syringe
EVT.GR (Evotec) -- announces nomination of small molecule preclinical development candidate from its multi‑target drug discovery alliance in medical dermatology with Almirall S.A. (ALM.SM)
MOLN.SW (Molecular Partners) -- to present new data on MP0712 at forthcoming scientific conferences
DRW3.GR (Drägerwerk) -- sees EU as its biggest current problem as planned restrictions on "forever chemicals" could threaten core aspects of industrial and medical production - Handelsblatt
Other
ENGI.FP (ENGIE) -- to partner with Deep Sky to advance direct air capture
CPI.LN (Capita) -- reported to information commissioner by Cabinet Office over data breach in civil service pension scheme - London Times
EQT.SS (EQT) -- retains Danske Bank, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley to advise on options for WS Audiology, including potential Denmark IPO -- Bloomberg
GRKP.SW (Graubeundner Kantonalbank) -- notes lawsuit against subsidiary, BZ Bank Aktiengesellschaft, former and current members of BZ Bank Aktiengesellschaft's governing bodies, and against GKB itself (
France Apr new passenger car registration (0.3%) y/y to 138,339 vehicles -- PFA
IFS preparing for IPO within next two years; will consider London, Europe and New York for listing - FT, citing CEO
Key rating changes
Upgrades
CAMX.SS (Camurus) -- to buy from hold at Handelsbanken
CTPNV.NA (CTP NV) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
LSG.NO (Lerøy Seafood Group) -- to buy from hold at Pareto
NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro) -- to buy from hold at Pareto
UMI.BB (Umicore) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Downgrades
JEN.GR (Jenoptik) -- to neutral from outperform at Oddo
Data
Nikkei closed
Hang Seng +1.49% to 26160.59
Shanghai Composite +0.00% to 4112.16
S&P futures +13.5 vs prior close of 7258.0
€-$ (0.0013) or (0.11%) to 1.1733
$-¥ (0.03) or (0.02%) to 156.76
€-¥ (0.31) or (0.17%) to 183.88
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