May 08 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended lower Friday amid some end-of-week profit taking. Australia saw the region's biggest losses and its steepest declines since March. The Hang Seng fell abruptly while Taiwan and mainland China benchmarks fell slightly. Southeast Asia and India also in the red. South Korea's Kospi pared an early loss to end a few points higher. US futures stronger, Europe opened with small losses. US dollar flat; won, AUD and NZD stronger. Treasury yields down at the long end, higher at the short. Oil futures marginally higher with Brent above $100/bl again. Precious metals mixed. Base metals mixed. Cryptocurrencies little changed.
Asia markets lower Friday amid some evidence of profit taking and a lack of fresh catalysts to drive another leg higher. Despite the dip, most major benchmarks finished much higher on a weekly basis as South Korea, Taiwan and Japan semiconductor stocks maintained their gains. Weighing on sentiment, US and Iran forces exchanged fire in the Gulf overnight, forcing a pause in crude oil's decline with Brent again trading above $100/bl although Washington insisted its ceasefire arrangement with Tehran was still intact. President Trump again threatened to hit Iran 'more violently' if Tehran did not sign a deal quickly.
Few regional developments to change the overarching trajectory Friday. Japan's real wages remained positive in March although was slightly below consensus; economists said the figure kept the BOJ"s rate hike path on course. Japan's service PMI growth slowed amid growing uncertainty and rising costs; South Korea posted a record current account surplus for March; Indonesia's forex reserves fell to a two-year low amid BI defense of the rupiah.
Nintendo (7974.JP) said it will increase the price of its Switch 2 console acknowledging the pressure on profitability for the device. Toyota Motor (7203.JP) Q4 operating profits missed estimates after declining 49% weighed by the impact of US tariffs. SoftBank (9984.JP) has sought talks with Nvidia and Foxconn with a view to build AI servers Japan. Macquarie Group (MQG.AU) posted a profit jump amid a surge in commodity trading profits. SK Hynix (000660.KS ) has been flooded with offers from large tech firms to secure chip supplies, according to a Reuters report. TSMC (2330.TT) posted its slowest pace of monthly revenue increases since Oct-25 at just 17.5% although analysts still expect Q2 growth to be around 35%.
Digest:
US and Iran exchange fire in Strait of Hormuz:
US and Iran exchange fire in Strait of Hormuz on Thursday with CENTCOM announcing it struck missile and drone sties, and command and control locations, after navy guided-missile destroyers were targeted as they transited (Bloomberg, Reuters). No US vessels were hit. CENTCOM said it was not looking for escalation but remained ready to protect American forces. President Trump also played down encounter, telling ABC News US strikes were just a "love tap" and that ceasefire remains in effect. Marks second skirmish this week after US retaliated against Iranian drone and missile attacks on vessels transiting Strait of Hormuz under the now-canceled Project Freedom.
Tensions remain high as US awaits Iranian response to its 14-point plan to end conflict and establish framework for talks on nuclear program. Under the terms leaked to the press, two side would agree to reopen Strait of Hormuz and establish 30-day negotiation period to resolve other issues, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said Tehran still assessing and yet to reach decision on talks with US, though press sources say response expected in coming days via Pakistani mediators.
While markets seem to be pricing in agreement that ends hostilities, it remains unclear extent to which Tehran will yield to American red lines on halting nuclear program, turning over HEU stockpiles and lifting restrictions on Strait of Hormuz. Iran foreign ministry spokesman said nuclear issues would be excluded from negotiations for the time being. Comes after media sources said Iran had expressed some openness to discussing nuclear program and Trump claimed US would be securing HEU stockpiles. Iran also showing no signs of relinquishing its claims over Strait of Hormuz.
Japan earnings highlights & themes:
Earnings highlights during the Friday session included disappointing Toyota (7203.JP) FY guidance pointing to net profit of JPY3.000T (22% drop) vs FactSet consensus JPY4.082T while revenues also missed. Middle East effects cited as the main headwind. Projections assume USD/JPY at 150 vs current ~156, implying windfall gains of JPY235B, though yen seen strengthening from here. Sensitivity analysis sees JPY50B OP boost for every 1 yen decline.
Sony (6758.JP) broadly missed StreetAccount consensus on Q4 and FY guidance. However, silver lining from FY net profit projections swinging to 13% growth from a 3% decline in the prior year. Further encouragement from positive OP growth amid concerns that soaring memory prices would eat into gaming division margins. Topline segment revenue growth buttressed by in-house development titles. Along with a dividend hike, JPY500B share buyback cited as the key catalyst for share price.
NTT (9432.JP) also missed SA consensus on Q4 and FY guidance headlines. Projections for a 5% decline in net profit mainly reflects payback for prior year proceeds from data center sale. Marginally raised dividends and announced a JPY200B buyback. Costs related to 5G capex and sales promotions seen as main headwinds.
Defense sector favorite IHI (7013.JP) FY metrics beat guidance and mostly above FactSet consensus. Next FY guidance broadly beat street expectations. Net profit set to log third straight annual record. Growth seen coming from both civil aircraft engines and defense businesses. Added contribution from real estate sales. Annual JPY23 dividend constitutes an increase since the stock split in Oct-25.
Japan wage momentum softens, real earnings remain positive:
Nominal average wages rose 2.7% y/y in March, below consensus 3.2%, following revised 3.4% in the previous month. Softening was broadly based across scheduled and overtime payments. Notable silver lining in scheduled (base) earnings growth topping 3% for three straight months, the strongest streak since Oct-92. Biggest swing came from a downturn in special payments, though largely discounted outside of semiannual bonus season. Real wages increased 1.0% vs consensus 1.8% and revised 2.0% in prior month. While below expectations, this was still the third straight positive reading. Attention now shifts to the April data after preliminary FY26 shunto tallies showed a historic third straight year of solid pay raises. Bigger increases among very small firms and part-time awards point to better breadth, combined with higher minimum wage. Recall FY25 saw some pickup in economy-wide nominal wage growth, though was surpassed by the deflator reflecting stronger inflation. Risks remain concentrated in inflation. Official data had been set to moderate in FY26 under the assumption that supply-side pressures (import prices, food & other non-fresh food) would ease which would have supported real wage growth. However, the Middle East war from late February triggered a direct surge in crude oil and petrochemical prices while blockage of the Strait of Hormuz caused a major global supply chain bottleneck. Such conditions set to elevate inflation with offset from government subsidies for fuel and other cost of living relief measures.
Japan money market data point to nearly $30B in FX interventions over Golden Week:
Nikkei cited BOJ (t+1) liquidity projections yesterday pointing to a net drain of JPY4.51T ($28.8B) Friday vs consensus projections for neutral, providing an indication of the scale of FX intervention operations conducted over the Golden Week holiday. MOF will publish official figures 29-May. Same data source suggested some JPY5T was spent on an operation verified by the press on 30-Apr. Since then, three notable yen rallies were identified on 1-May, 4-May and 6-May, all of which brought levels to the 155 handle versus dollar. Recent focus has surrounded quotes from MOF sources they are mindful of IMF's definition of a free-floating currency which limits intervention operations to three instances in a six-month span. This was apparently the rationale by which speculators sold yen after the 4-May rally emboldened by the likelihood that intervention had concluded. Yet subsequent reports suggested operations within a three-day period technically count as one, while FX policy chief Mimura dismissed the entire topic as merely a classification standard, and noted his understanding there is no rule that limits frequency. Other remarks the FX market remains rife with speculative bets, as well as mentioning the upcoming weekend after Golden Week, were taken as a warning that additional operations could be on the cards.
China holiday spending figures don't move the needle as stimulus effects wane:
May Day holiday spending aggregates were broadly positive. Ministry of Culture and Tourism figures showed 325M domestic trips over May 1-5, up 3.6% y/y (Xinhua). Expenditure grew 2.9% to CNY185.49B ($27B). Reuters noted spending per trip based on this data declined to CNY571 from CNY574.1 last year, still well below pre-pandemic levels of CNY603.4 in 2019, reaffirming household caution towards costs. SCMP cited China Trading Desk survey data showing per-capita spending was CNY680-690 compared to CNY574 last year, albeit driven mainly by higher transport and lodging costs. State Taxation Administration data based on VAT invoices indicated consumer spending grew 14.3%, slightly firmer than the 13.7% expansion seen in the previous major LNY holiday (Bloomberg). Yet, economists are wary of volatility and momentum has not been strong enough to encourage more optimism toward the outlook for consumer demand. Recalled recent official retail data have logged a series of sub-2% growth as the government is scaling back funding for its flagship consumer goods trade-in program this year. Tax invoices in particular may have been boosted by a lottery program in 50 cities that use VAT invoices as an entry ticket to win prizes. Meanwhile, box office revenue grew only 1.5% this year to CNY758M, less than half the amounts in 2024 and 2023, as average ticket prices fell 8% to CNY36.3.
Notable Gainers:
+9.8% 2379.TT (Realtek Semiconductor): reports April revenue NT$12.72B, +11.3% y/y
+7.4% 3774.JP (Internet Initiative Japan): activist Oasis Management discloses 7.5% stake
+4.9% 220.HK (Uni-President China Holdings): reports Q1 profit after tax CNY737.2M; StreetAccount notes year-ago figure CNY602.0M
+2.4% 033780.KS (KT&G Corp): reports Q1 results; operating profit beats StreetAccount estimates on solid overseas tobacco segment performance
+0.5% 7013.JP (IHI): reports FY results; formulates medium-to-long-term roadmap
Notable Decliners:
-14.6% 4516.JP (Nippon Shinyaku): Capricor Therapeutics files lawsuit related to Commercialization and Distribution Agreement with Nippon Shinyaku
-9.8% 6841.JP (Yokogawa Electric): reports FY results; operating profit below guidance and FactSet estimates
-6.9% 9688.HK (ZAI Lab): reports Q1 results; revenue misses FactSet estimates
-2.9% 047810.KS (KOREA AEROSPACE INDUSTRIES): reports weaker-than-expected Q1 operating profit
-2.8% 4151.JP (Kyowa Kirin): reports Q1 results; profit misses FactSet estimates
-2.2% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): reports Q4 results; operating income below StreetAccount estimates
-0.5% 6758.JP (Sony): reports Q4 results; revenue ahead of expectations
Data:
Economic:
Japan
March average nominal wages +2.7% y/y vs consensus +3.2% and revised +3.4% in prior month
Real wages +1.0% y/y vs consensus +1.8% and revised +2.0% in prior month
April final services PMI 51.0 vs flash 51.2 and 53.4 in prior month
Composite PMI 52.2 vs flash 52.4 and 53.0 in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: (120.19) or (0.19%) to 62713.65
Hang Seng: (232.57) or (0.87%) to 26393.71
Shanghai Composite: (0.14) or (0.00%) to 4179.95
Shenzhen Composite: 3.51 or +0.12% to 2875.75
ASX200: (133.70) or (1.51%) to 8744.40
KOSPI: 7.95 or +0.11% to 7498.00
SENSEX: (555.67) or (0.71%) to 77288.85
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.11) or (0.07%) to 156.8240
$-KRW: +10.31 or +0.71% to 1468.9900
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.17% to 0.7220
$-INR: +0.09 or +0.10% to 94.6516
$-CNY: +0.00 or +0.01% to 6.8026
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