May 26 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended mostly lower Tuesday in choppy trading. Losses in Japan, Shanghai, Taipei. India and Southeast Asia. The Hang Seng closed a few points lower, Shenzhen a tad higher. Korea's Kospi marked-to-market following yesterday's tech surge, touching a fresh record high and closing above 8K for the first time. US futures higher, Europe opened slightly softer. US dollar a little higher, Asia currencies weaker although yen and yuan flat. Treasury and JGBs mixed. Crude futures higher as Brent rises back above $95/bl. Precious metals off their peaks, base metals weaker. Cryptocurrencies under pressure.
Asia equities drifted all day as conflicting signals from the middle east and a lack of fresh catalysts (including a closed US market Monday) caused investors to pause. Early morning Asia time, the US launched fresh strikes against mine-laying boats and missile launch sites in 'defensive actions', and Iran said it had downed a hostile drone. Meanwhile US Secretary of State Rubio said a deal would take several days to finalise while a middle east source told Nikkei the Washington and Tehran were discussing a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days of hostilities ending.
In regional developments today, Japan PM Takaichi said her supplementary budget will total around ¥3T ($18.8B) will not need additional JGB issuance. BOJ Deputy Governor Himino said middle east developments will factor into the bank's rate decision and bank is committed to further rate hikes; markets now price in around 70% chance of a rate hike in June. A Bloomberg report said Beijing has let the interest rate on one-year policy loans to banks fall to a record low as it looks to support the economy.
Kinden (1944.JP) is to launch a tender offer for a 48.6% stake in Kodensha (1948.JP) at ¥11.500 per share. SMIC (981.HK) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347.HK) traded higher following Huawei (+HUAWEI) claims of chipmaking breakthrough that will see it produce advanced 1.4nm chips by 2031. Australia exchange operator ASX (ASX.AU) warned of a sharp rise in spending for technology upgrades and product developments, part of which is connected to regulator fixes.
Digest:
Trump says US-Iran negotiations proceeding nicely, US conducts strikes in Strait of Hormuz:
US-Iran headlines still leaning towards agreement being struck with negotiations continuing (Bloomberg). President Trump posted negotiations proceeding nicely and Pakistan's chief mediator said agreement is close. Iranian delegation were in Qatar Monday for mediated talks, led by parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf, Foreign Minister Araghchi and Iranian central bank governor. Reuters source said talks focused on Strait of Hormuz, uranium stockpiles and release of frozen Iranian assets.
Details of MoU circulated in press include agreement to end conflict and establish 60-day period to negotiate on nuclear issue. There remain questions surrounding uranium enrichment and fate of uranium stockpiles (link). Trump said stockpiles would either be turned over to US or destroyed in coordination with Iran. US wanting to hinge sanctions relief on Iranian commitments on uranium enrichment while Tehran pressing for more details on sanctions relief first.
Nikkei source said two sides discussing plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz roughly 30 days following agreement with Iran to clear mines during that period. Iran would allow free transit and not charge tolls once Strait is reopened. Arab countries also demanding agreement include freedom of navigation. However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei insisted on maintaining role in managing Strait and collecting fees.
Iran's demand to include end to Lebanon war in agreement also stirring objections from Israel and PM Netanyahu on Monday vowed to intensify strikes against Hezbollah (Bloomberg). Trump introduced fresh wrinkle by demanding Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other states sign Abraham Accords otherwise they would not be involved in any agreement (Reuters). Meanwhile, fighting flared up in Strait of Hormuz with CENTCOM announcing US struck Iranian missile launch sites and boats attempting to lay mines (Bloomberg).
Japan PM Takaichi pledges extra budget won't add to net JGB issuance:
Prime Minister Takaichi spoke to reporters Monday evening, confirming an FY26 supplementary budget will be slightly more than JPY3T ($18.8B) and a bill will be submitted to the Diet as early as next week (Nikkei). Key attention on funding. Noted the extra budget will entail deficit-covering bond issuance, though eventual headroom from FY25 surplus tax revenues and other sources are expected to provide a sufficient offset, leaving net JGB issuance unchanged. Emphasized this would avoid impact on the JGB market. Also reiterated commitment to fiscal sustainability and securing market confidence. Yet, part of market concerns stem from the fact that this is the first time since the Covid pandemic in 2022 when an extra budget has been initiated within two months of the start of the fiscal year. The core issue is that fuel subsidies are rapidly depleting existing reserves and surplus FY25 funding cannot be accessed until the accounts are consolidated. Main contents generally consistent with earlier reports -- JPY2.5T earmarked for a special reserve for Middle East impacts, mainly to sustain gasoline subsidies, and JPY500B for another round of electricity & gas subsidies over July to September. Article included hawkish market takes the administration is too readily resorting to fiscal support, and the accounting acrobatics to minimize new JGB issuance doesn't change the persistent reliance on debt financing to cover annual deficits.
StreetAccount Event Preview: Bank of Korea policy meeting, 28 May
Bank of Korea widely expected to keep policy rate unchanged at 2.5% Thursday but pivot to hawkish stance in Shin Hyuan-song's first meeting as governor. Bank currently grappling with Iran-related energy price surge, renewed momentum in Seoul apartment prices, substantially weakened won. Economists give low probability to chance of rate hike this month given uncertainty over duration of oil-price shock, anchored inflation (Yonhap).
Several noted swap markets signal around 60bps of BOK rate hikes by year-end but these unlikely to be realized as economic growth appears increasingly 'K-shaped', although 25 bps hike possible in July (Bloomberg). Bank expected to raise FY GDP growth forecasts from current 1.9% y/y closer to consensus at 2.5% post Q1's stronger-than-expected performance however narrow, technology-led growth surge, and weak consumption likely to cap any significant upgrade. CPI forecasts also likely to be raised although should also be capped as May's high-frequency price points stabilized, fuel price cap remains in place.
StreetAccount Event Preview: RBNZ 27-May policy meeting
RBNZ expected to leave OCR unchanged at 2.25% at its 27-May policy meeting. Focus will be on guiding commentary after MPC leaned hawkish in April in weighing merits of pre-emptive rate hike. Lot will depend on whether MPC believes inflation spike is transitory and if rate hike conditions have been met (core inflation and wage growth contained, medium-term inflation expectations anchored around 2%). RBNZ Governor Breman in April reiterated readiness to act to prevent inflation pressures becoming permanent. Latest data showed 2-year ahead inflation expectations rose to 2.53% from 2.37% and 1-year ahead inflation outlook rising to 3.41% from 2.59%.
While financial conditions have tightened domestically, current OCR remains some 75 bp below RBNZ's neutral rate estimate of ~3.00%. Updated OCR track will get usual attention with previews looking for upward revisions to end-2026 rate of 2.38% and terminal rate of around 3.00%. Some though updated OCR track will convey softer hawkish bias than markets, which are currently pricing in 125 bp of tightening over next year.
Previews note economic headwinds are a key argument for keeping rates steady in May with New Zealand consumer confidence, manufacturing activity and retail card spending suggesting loss of momentum over Q2. Employment growth also tepid with wage growth steady. MPC ultimately seen prioritizing inflation risks with OCR at stimulatory level, leaving question more around timing. Markets fully pricing in rate hike by September.
Notable Gainers:
+21.8% 000990.KS (DB HITEK): to be included in KOSPI 200, effective from 12-Jun
+9.7% 2344.TT (Winbond Electronics): Walsin Lihwa holder and parent co Winbond Electronics plans to sell 14.2M Walsin shares
+5.2% 2269.HK (Wuxi Biologics (Cayman)): proposes up to $400M on-market share repurchase
+0.8% 1944.JP (Kinden): to launch tender offer for 48.6% minority stake in The Kodensha at ¥11,501/share
Notable Decliners:
-6.1% 3110.JP (Nitto Boseki): to conduct 5-for-1 stock split, effective 1-Jul
-4.2% 2267.JP (Yakult Honsha): reports April domestic sales volume of Yakult series (11.2%) y/y
-3.7% 114090.KS (Grand Korea Leisure): to be removed from KOSPI 200, effective from 12-Jun -1.9% 051900.KS (LG H&H): reportedly to sell Haitai HTB for KRW300.0B
-0.2% 9024.JP (Seibu Holdings): 3D Investment Partners raises stake to 6.92% from 5.75%
Data:
Economic:
No Economic data today
Markets:
Nikkei: -0.25% to 64,996
Hang Seng: -0.03 to 25,599
Shanghai Composite: -0.17% to 4,145
Shenzhen Composite: +0.12% to 15,876
ASX200: +-0.39% to 8,657
KOSPI: +2.55% to 8,047
SENSEX: -0.33% to 76,242
Editor's Note: This comment, which has been amended, improperly listed yesterday’s closing moves in the headline. We apologize for the error. (26-May-2026, 05:02 ET)
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