May 28 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended mostly lower Thursday. Steepest losses were in markets that have performed best of late including the Kospi and Taiex, with notable declines on Japan's boards and the ASX. Hong Kong was also lower but finished away from its trough; mainland China markets posted small advances. Southeast Asia mostly lower. Indonesia and India markets closed. US futures lower, European markets opened with modest losses. US dollar higher but volatile, weakness in the AUD and NZD, yen and yuan flat; won slightly lower following BOK decision, rupiah at fresh record low. JGB yields mostly lower, Treasury yields higher. Crude oil futures higher with Brent back above $95/bl. Precious metals sharply down with gold at a two-month low, base metals again under pressure. Cryptocurrencies also lower.
Regional risk-off sentiment comes amid renewed hostilities in the Gulf. The US struck several military targets in Iran and shot down several Iranian drones, while Tehran fired missiles and drones into Kuwait and upon a US tanker attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The attacks came shortly after President Trump dismissed an Iran media story that claimed the two sides had reached a deal to restore Hormuz traffic, saying 'nobody' is going to control the strait. They also came days after a deal between Washington and Tehran appeared imminent that had triggered a sharp decline in crude prices; that partially reversed today together with a sharp decline in precious metals, a resumption of the bond selldown trade, and a steep increase in dollar volatility.
In regional developments today, the Bank of Korea kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.5% but signaled a rate hike was imminent; it also raised its FY inflation and GDP growth forecasts. RBNZ Governor Breman said the pace of the bank's rate hikes will depend on the impact on inflation of weaker demand following the bank's hawkish hold on Wednesday. New Zealand authorities also lowered their bond issuance target and projected its budget would return to surplus earlier than expected. Australia April household spending contracted by more than expected as transport and fuel prices rose. Thailand's industrial output contracted for the first time since Nov-25 as automotive output fell amid disruptions caused by the middle east conflict.
Several Japanese companies said to be considering investing in a new SoftBank (9984.JP) venture to develop an AI platform usable across manufacturing supply chain. PDD (PDD) sales missed estimates on competitive pressures and weak China consumer sentiment. ByteDance (+BYTE.HK) is weighing a doubling of capex this year in data center and AI infrastructure development. NIO (9866.HK) launched its flagship SUV with a lower-than-expected price tag, highlighting a potential continuation of China's auto price war. LG Energy Solution (373220.KS) said it had signed a contract worth around $1.6B with DTE Energy (DTE) for the supply of ESS batteries. NC Corporation (036570.KS) and Hyundai Rotem (064350.KS) are to form a new joint entity to develop defense physical AI.
Digest:
US conducts fresh strikes in Strait of Hormuz, Trump insists no one will control waterway:
US military launched another round of strikes against Iranian targets in Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, shooting down drones that were fired at commercial ships (Bloomberg, link, Reuters) . Marked second such strike this week, which US military again described at defensive in nature. IRGC claimed to have retaliated with strike against US base and Kuwait responding to incoming drones and missiles. Monday's strikes drew rebuke from Iran but didn't derail ongoing talks, though latest actions underline the uneasy backdrop to negotiations.
Development follows cautious remarks from President Trump regarding state of US-Iran negotiations (Bloomberg, Reuters). Trump maintained his view Iran wants a deal but said he didn't like Tehran's offer so far and did not rule out further military action. Trump pushed back against Iranian demands over Strait of Hormuz, insisting nobody will control the waterway and threatened to attack Oman amid reports about it sharing management of the Strait with Iran. Trump vowed no sanctions relief for Iran. Also repeated demands for Gulf states to join Abraham Accords, otherwise it could jeopardize US interest in signing agreement with Iran.
Markets have mostly looked past recent back-and-forth, sticking to baseline assumption for agreement to be struck. However, rhetoric and portrayal of negotiations by both sides suggest gaps remain. White House disputed report by Iranian state TV claiming draft agreement to reopen Strait of Hormuz with Iran managing traffic, lifting of US naval blockade and withdrawal of US forces from region. Iran parliamentary member also vowed Iran would not back down from its stances on uranium enrichment, authority over Strait of Hormuz and lifting of sanctions.
Bank of Korea holds base interest rate steady, flags rate hike coming:
Bank of Korea's MPC held its 7D repo rate steady at 2.5% Thursday under Shin Hyun-song's first meeting as governor but raised FY inflation rate forecast to 2.7% from 2.2%. Bank said would 'decide on timing of rate hike' while assessing inflationary pressure, financial stability. MPC board was split with two members voting for rate hike, signaling shift in view, adding even hike in this meeting would have been justified. Dot plot showed two rate hikes over next six months.
Bank raised FY26 GDP growth outlook to 2.6% from previous 2.0%, increased FY27 forecast to 2.3% from 2.0%. Unchanged base rate, forecast changes trajectory widely expected amid known energy cost increases since previous forecasts in February in wake of Iran conflict.
BoK said expected inflation to increase further on middle east spillover, forex rate, and demand-side pressure from higher income growth. Added it expects inflation to remain above target level 'for some time' while economic growth will continue 'solid improvement trend'. Said would also continue to monitor forex volatility, Seoul's housing market, household debt.
New inflation projections, MPC comments likely to fuel economists' expectations of rate hike as soon as July; Shin regarded as hawkish relative to predecessor while analyst cited by Bloomberg noted inflation seemed to have 'more room to rise', likelihood of BoK hiking rate in July now 'fairly high'.
BOJ rate hike might need to clear hurdle of term premium debate:
Nikkei discussed how BOJ walking a narrow path with its aim to hike interest rates at the upcoming June policy meeting while also avoiding the kind of significant jump in long-term rates seen in December following the last rate hike. Since the start of the year, BOJ officials have been actively discussing whether rate hikes cause long-term interest rates to rise. Governor Kazuo Ueda has directly sought opinions on the matter from overseas investors.
The December episode still looms large, posing a yet unsettled debate about whether the underlying driver was the rate hike itself or the backdrop of inflation risk fueled by stimulus talk during the FY26 budget preparation process.
Another issue is Prime Minister Takaichi's interpretations, said to have leaned toward accepting the December hike in the hopes it would lead to market stability. However, yields continued to rise, and government officials say Takaichi was left with the impression that rate hikes equate to yield increases.
BOJ members now said to be discussing the idea that rate hikes can quell future inflation concerns and thereby work to narrow the term premium. Recalled Koeda's speech observing that market views on global inflation risks are being reflected in government bond yields, and suggested long rates wouldn't necessarily follow a rise in short rates.
Article cited an analyst's view that one rate hike would not offset market concerns about fiscal deterioration or Fed policy expectations which have shifted to rate hikes, keeping upward pressure on JGB yields. Mizuho CEO Masahiro Kihara made a similar remark to Bloomberg, hinting that behind-the-curve risk is a contributing factor.
Takaichi and Governor Ueda meeting Friday finished with no specific discussion about rate hikes, though a government official said neither of them want to see higher long-term rates. This ties in the JGB purchase reduction plan which will be reviewed at the June MPM. A former BOJ official suggested slowing the tapering pace could be a bargaining chip offered by the MPC as a concession for a rate hike. Yet, story cited concerns in both BOJ and the government with prolonged purchases.
Foreign investors looking to Japan rates for alternatives to AI:
Nikkei discussed Japan Post Bank (7182.JP), an unlikely performer tracking in the top ten year-on-year returns among Japanese companies with market cap of at least JPY10T ($62.7B). Notable selling interest in SoftBank (9984.JP) Wednesday prompted foreign investors to start looking beyond the AI-driven market. Japan Post IR department seeing elevated enquiries particularly from foreign investors. Foreign ownership on the rise with 39% of shares not held by Japan Post Holdings (6178.JP) as of March, up 6 ppt y/y. Supplanted a 9 ppt decline among individual investors to 26% as the top external stakeholder, as the stock's status as a preferred dividend play is waning. With share price up nearly 100% y/y, performance trailing major AI/tech names though among the top domestic demand plays. Much of the overseas interest owed to Morgan Stanley's addition of Japan Post to its list of recommended buys in financials. Japan Post medium-term business plan set goals for doubling net profits in FY28 and doubling ROE to about 10%, which JPMorgan described as conservative. Notable contrast with banks that dominate rate plays as Japan Post is a deposit institution with no lending capacity. Story cited Goldman Sachs sensitivity analysis in January showing Japan Post stood to see net profit growth of 43% if BOJ hiked the policy rate by 25 bp to 0.75% -- ahead of all other conventional banks. Article noted investors so far looking through sizable latent bond portfolio losses of some JPY1.2T and sees higher rates as a net positive.
Swathe of Japanese companies considering participation in SoftBank's domestic physical AI project:
Nikkei top story noted about 30 large Japanese companies from a wide range of industries, including chemicals, robots, automobiles and electronics, are considering investing in a new SoftBank (9984.JP) venture that seeks to develop domestic AI. Mentions included Asahi Kasei (3407.JP), Yaskawa Electric (6506.JP), Fujitsu (6702.JP) along with major heavy industry and transportation companies considering investment. Initially, about 10 firms expected to make a decision in June with minor contributions of tens of millions of yen each. SoftBank, NEC (6701.JP), Honda (7267.JP) and Sony (6758.JP) will play central roles, with each holding a stake of more than 10%. MUFG Bank (8306.JP), SMBC (8316.JP), Mizuho Bank (8411.JP), Nippon Steel (5401.JP) and Kobe Steel (5406.JP) have also made small investments. Venture aims to develop an AI platform usable across the entire supply chain by incorporating companies that support manufacturing, such as materials, machine tools and logistics. Plan is to establish a data center with one of the largest information processing capacities in Japan at the site of a former Sharp factory in Osaka that SoftBank acquired in 2025, with full operations expected as soon as 2028. Facility will house an AI computing platform powered by the equivalent of 100,000 Nvidia H200 advanced AI chips. The cost of developing related infrastructure is estimated to reach JPY1T. SoftBank launched the venture in April with eight other companies (Nikkei).
Notable Gainers:
+15.3% 373220.KS (LG Energy Solution): signs supply contract for ESS batteries with DTE Energy; total contract value amounts to $1.6B
+6.3% 9866.HK (NIO Inc): officially launches ES9 SUV
+5.7% 6110.HK (Topsports International Holdings): reports FY results; revenue CNY25.74B vs FactSet CNY25.02B; declares final and special dividends
+2.5% 036570.KS (NC Corporation): NC AI, Hyundai Rotem reportedly to enter partnership for defense physical AI
+1.4% 2726.JP (PAL GROUP Holdings): launches ¥1.40B on-market buyback
Notable Decliners:
-6.2% 1060.HK (Damai Entertainment Holdings): reports FY results; adjusted EBITA CNY746.0M, (8%) vs year-ago CNY809.3M
-5.3% 016380.KS (KG DongbuSteel): reportedly to sell 9.5M Taihan Electric Wire shares via block trade to fund K-car acquisition
-4.9% 3896.HK (Kingsoft Cloud Holdings): reports Q1 adjusted net income (CNY237.1M) vs FactSet (CNY185.8M)
-2.7% 016360.KS (Samsung Securities Co.): to acquire 2.0% stake in Dunamu for KRW306.37B
Data:
Economic:
Australia
Q1 private capital expenditure +6.5% q/q vs consensus +1.0% and +0.7% in Q4
April household spending (1.1%) m/m vs consensus (0.5%) and +1.6% in March
Markets:
Nikkei: (306.29) or (0.47%) to 64693.12
Hang Seng: (322.07) or (1.27%) to 25006.16
Shanghai Composite: 4.91 or +0.12% to 4098.64
Shenzhen Composite: 25.03 or +0.88% to 2859.88
ASX200: (124.80) or (1.43%) to 8592.90
KOSPI: (43.41) or (0.53%) to 8185.29
SENSEX: Closed
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.06) or (0.04%) to 159.4500
$-KRW: (0.84) or (0.06%) to 1501.6700
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.26%) to 0.7122
$-INR: +0.19 or +0.20% to 96.0385
$-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 6.7784
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