Jun 03 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asian equities traded mostly higher Wednesday. Japan benchmarks outperformed with more gains for tech stocks on the Nikkei 225 while the Topix also rose to a fresh record. Mainland China and Taiwan benchmarks were also notably higher with the Taiex setting another record; Australia also closed up. Hang Seng gave up some of Tuesday's gains as IT stocks fell, India also lower on the oil price spike. Indonesia stocks down more than 4%. South Korea and Thailand closed for holidays. US futures slightly lower, Europe opened with modest losses. US dollar flat, yen briefly touched ¥160 per dollar before retreating, won, AUD, NZD, rupee all weaker, rupiah at record low. Crude futures sharply higher with Brent approaching $98/bl, WTI above $95/bl. Precious metals back under pressure, base metals still supported. Cryptocurrencies mixed.
Asia equities led once more by tech stocks Wednesday but the spike in crude prices reappearing as a driver in several of the oil-exposed nations such as India and Vietnam. Indonesia's benchmark also sharply lower on fiscal concerns partially related to the middle-east crisis. Nevertheless, the upward momentum of the Nikkei 225 and Taiex continued today buoyed by more record highs on US boards overnight. In the middle east, some confusion over whether ceasefire talks are continuing with Tehran saying they were off while President Trump insisted they were on. US and Iranian forces again exchanged fire overnight and into Wednesday while Israel's incursion into Lebanon continues.
In regional developments today, Australia Q1 GDP growth came in slightly below forecasts as fuel cost rises weighed on consumer spending. China private RatingDog May services PMI rose as the new business orders component supported; final Japan services PMI confirmed a slowdown as costs rose but India's service PMI rose to a six-month high. Japan PM Takaichi finalized her $19B extra budget, which is to be funded by existing deficit-covering bonds. USTR Greer proposed tariff rate of 10% or 12.5% on 60 countries over failed forced labor practices.
IHI's (7013.JP) aerospace unit has received a five-month suspension from participating in bidding for Japan Aerospace Agency contracts after falsely declaring work had been completed. IndusInd Bank (532187.IN) is facing a fresh whistleblower accusation set to PM Modi's office and several regulators over alleged insider trading, governance failure and audit shortcomings. DeepSeek (+DEEPSEEK) could raise up to CNY50B ($7.4B) in its first round of funding from investors that are likely to include Tencent (700.HK) and CATL (3750.HK), according to a Reuters report.
Digest:
US and Iran exchange fire, testing ceasefire:
US and Iran traded fire on Tuesday with CENTCOM announcing shoot down of Iranian missiles and drones fired towards regional countries including Kuwait and Bahrain (Reuters, Bloomberg). IRGC confirmed it fired at American bases in Kuwait and US fifth fleet in Bahrain as retaliation for US strikes on Qeshm Island. Marks latest skirmish between US and Iran over recent weeks with military responding to Iranian fire at commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz. On Tuesday US also fired at ship attempting to evade Strait of Hormuz blockade.
Developments heightening timeline uncertainty for an agreement. Iran still reviewing proposed agreement and Iranian media said no talks have been held in recent days (though Trump maintained communications ongoing) (Reuters). Clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have also raised tensions this week after Iran warned it would abandon peace talks unless fighting in Lebanon came to end. Following his phone call with Israel PM Netanyahu, President Trump announced Israel agreed to halt strikes on Beirut but Netanyahu said campaign in southern Lebanon continuing.
Bloomberg piece cited sources and shipping data suggesting US is quietly assisting ships navigate Strait of Hormuz, with vessels turning off transponders and closely navigating Omani shoreline. However, sporadic fighting has throttled shipping activity in Strait of Hormuz with just two vessels observed to have transited on Tuesday (Bloomberg). Crude has rebounded amid the flareup in tensions with WTI up 9% week-to-date.
Calls for June BOJ rate hike grow stronger:
Nikkei discussed growing calls for a BOJ rate hike ahead of the next meeting on June 15-16 amid a shifting balance between easing Middle East risks and mounting inflation risks. Suggested the absence of notable opposition from the Takaichi administration by this point could also open the path to a hike.
Following the three dissentions at the April MPM, recalled other board members have come on the record in support of rate hikes. Masu advocated for hikes as soon as possible if data do no indicate clear signs of an economic downturn. Koeda stressed the need for hikes to address inflation risks. Article said BOJ internally has become less concerned about growth risks that warranted the delay in April. One official cited as saying there has been no clear disruptions in supply chains, shifting more of the attention on inflation.
While growth impacts have so far been limited, crude oil transmission has been clear as higher prices have spilled over into chemicals, heightening the probability of an eventual impact on final demand goods. One BOJ official remarked that missing an opportunity to hike in June will further stoke behind-the-curve risks.
Yen weakness stands as another reason to move. Reversal of brief support provided by FX interventions over Golden Week attest to the strength of expectations that real rates will remain negative. Given government opposition to rate hikes would lead to sustained yen pressures, counteractive to policy goals, the story noted growing acquiescence to a BOJ move.
Helping that has been recent comments by US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who endorsed monetary policy under Governor Ueda and all but called for a rate hike. Previous press discussions suggested this might have been a hint to the Takaichi administration to accept rate increases.
Australian GDP growth slows, higher fuel prices weigh on discretionary spending:
Australian GDP growth slowed to 0.3% q/q in Q1 from 0.8% in Q4, slightly lower than consensus 0.4%. Brought yearly growth rate to 2.5% from 2.6%. Main drag came from net exports, which detracted 0.8% from growth amid surge in imports of automatic data processing equipment. Inclement weather impacted commodity exports. Private demand driven by 0.7% contribution from investment amid surge in data center activity. Household consumption growth rose to 0.5% from 0.3%, contributing 0.3% to growth. Mostly driven by essential spending (utilities, fuel) with discretionary spending subdued. Household savings ratio fell to a still elevated 6.2%, driven by 6% increase in employee compensation. Public demand made no contribution to growth. Inventories also made no contribution as buildup in mining inventory was offset by run-down in manufacturing and retail stocks. Productivity metrics worsened with GDP per hour worked shrinking and unit labor costs rising. Australian bond yields down slightly from highs following data though policy implications limited with RBA widely expected to hold in June.
Japan PM Takaichi to decide on consumption tax cut this month:
As the Cabinet approved a JPY3.1T ($19.4B) FY26 supplementary budget bill Wednesday (Bloomberg), Nikkei top story said Prime Minister Takaichi is set to make a decision on a consumption tax cut this month. Main proposal now to lower the tax on food to 1% from current 8%, effective Apr-27, rather than the 0% promised in Takaichi's election platform.
This is the result of recent deliberations that recognized a cut to 0% would entail longer timeframes for system upgrades in the commerce industry, whereas a nominal 1% could be facilitated sooner. METI to present its view on time requirements Wednesday to a government panel, which will compile its own report this month, serving as the basis for Takaichi's decision. METI draft report indicated most businesses can prepare within six months to a 1% rate, and around 10 months to a year to a 0% rate. Emphasized a 1% tax would not warrant impact studies or system alterations.
Given ongoing uncertainties tied to a 0% tax, there are signs of growing support for a 1% level in the interest of speed to counter rising crude oil prices. Amid some concerns this would break an election pledge, recent opinion polls indicated many voters prefer quick implementation. Brief mention that a 1% tax would somehow be easier to legislate in time for implementation at the start of FY27.
Yet, in either case, funding remains a challenge as a 0% tax would require about JPY5T ($31.3B) annually, while 1% would still run in the JPY4T range. Details remain vague; policymakers are still leaning on expected FY25 tax revenue surplus and unused provisions. Expectations of no major stimulus next autumn would further increase the security of such funding (albeit there have been no ballpark estimates for how much will be available, and this will largely determine implications for potential JGB issuance).
Indonesia stocks crash, rupiah sinks to record low as fiscal concerns resurface:
Indonesia stocks fell, rupiah sank amid a jump in crude Wednesday, triggering another round of angst over Jakarta's stretched finances and government interference in a key export sector. JSX equities benchmark down almost 5.0% Wednesday, now down 32.0% YTD and worst performing national benchmark globally; rupiah 0.7% weaker and 7.0% down YTD amid overseas investor outflow, deepening concerns over fiscal deficit that runs just below 3.0%; sentiment also weighed by tighter government control over commodity exports after creation of single export agency (Bloomberg). Latest round of selling comes after prosecutors raided agency overseeing President Prabowo free meals program Wednesday (Reuters), and business groups calling for clarity on export rules (Reuters). Rupiah dropped to record low below IDR18K per dollar following trade data Tuesday showed surplus had narrowed to six-year low amid decrease in exports; Bank Indonesia hiked base rate 50 bps last month, actively supporting currency but failed to stop YTD weakening.
Notable Gainers:
+10.5% 1548.HK (Genscript Biotech): affiliate Legend Biotech discloses positive initial Phase 1 data for LB2501, an in vivo CAR-T therapy for non-Hodgkin lymphoma
+7.0% 1590.TT (Airtac International Group): reports May revenue NT$3.91B, +40.4% y/y
+2.4% 9843.JP (Nitori Holdings): reports May same-store sales +7.0% y/y
+0.7% 285A.JP (Kioxia Holdings): unveils growth strategy at investor day
Notable Decliners:
-6.1% 1138.HK (COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation): orders four LNG ships for CNY6.45B
-3.9% 7013.JP (IHI): unit IHI Aerospace receives 5-month suspension in participating in competitive bidding from JAXA; IHI Aerospace submitted reports falsely stating that work had been completed when it had not
Data:
Economic:
China May
RatingDog Services PMI 54.4 vs consensus 52.3 and 52.6 in prior month
Composite PMI 54.0 vs 53.1 in prior month
Japan May
May final services PMI 50.0 vs flash 50.0 and 51.0 in prior month
Composite PMI 51.1 vs flash 51.1 and 52.2 in prior month
Australia Q1
GDP +0.3% q/q vs consensus +0.4% and +0.8% in Q4
GDP +2.5% y/y vs consensus +2.6% and +2.6% in Q4
New Zealand April
Building permits m/m +10.9% versus (0.8%) in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: 1,667.89 or +2.50% to 68402.13
Hang Seng: (405.11) or (1.56%) to 25633.21
Shanghai Composite: 8.87 or +0.22% to 4083.97
Shenzhen Composite: 7.71 or +0.27% to 2812.92
ASX200: 61.30 or +0.70% to 8785.70
KOSPI: Closed
SENSEX: (520.73) or (0.70%) to 74129.11
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.26) or (0.16%) to 159.6640
$-KRW: +10.28 or +0.68% to 1527.9200
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.25%) to 0.7163
$-INR: +0.41 or +0.43% to 95.7662
$-CNY: +0.01 or +0.08% to 6.7679
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