Jun 09 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equites ended higher Tuesday amid a recovery in tech sentiment. South Korea led by some distance as its semiconductor stocks recovered from a two-day selloff; Taiwan and the Nikkei 225 were also strong while the Topix ended higher. Greater China traded higher although the Hang Seng is still stuck in its recent narrow range and fell a tad. Southeast Asia was mostly higher with a strong recovery in Indonesia after a surprise BI rate hike. Australia fell few points as it partially marked-to-market from yesterday's holiday. US futures pared early losses, now positive; Europe opened with gains. US dollar lower, NZD and AUD higher, yen quiet amid more finmin warnings. Treasury yields mostly higher, JGB yields lower across tenors. Crude prices lower. Precious metals mixed. Base metals higher. Cryptocurrencies little changed.
Asia equities recovered from a two-day selloff with strong gains in recent technology underperformers while financial stocks in the region also enjoyed a better day. Sentiment improved by a modest rally on Wall Street overnight as well as a dip in crude prices, which came after Israel and Iran agreed to halt attacks on one another. Nevertheless, a permanent ceasefire between the US and Iran with a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz appears as far away as ever. And analysts also warned the Wall Street rally was relatively narrow and Treasury markets still appear focused on the potential for rate hikes, adding markets may remain volatile for the time being.
In regional developments Tuesday, Japan's finance minister Katayama warned again over volatility in the forex volatility but it had little effect on the yen as it remained at around 160 per dollar. Meanwhile, the Nikkei reported the BOJ will hike its base rate next week and will likely pause in its tapering of JGB purchases. Bank Indonesia surprised by hiking its base interest rates by 25 bps and revealed a series of measures to support the rupiah. China May exports surprised on the upside while imports also were higher than expected but economists warned the surge was likely temporary amid inventory builds. The US Pentagon added many China-based names onto its list of companies with links to the PLA.
Nippon Steel (5401.JP) said it will invest up to $2.5B in US Steel's Mon Valley Pennsylvania plant. Panasonic (6752.JP) said it is aiming to quadruple sales from AI infrastructure by 2029, and ramp up production of lithium-ion batteries via ¥500B investment. The US has accused several of China's largest companies including Alibaba (9988.HK), Baidu (9888.HK) and BYD (1211.HK) of aiding the military; ChangXin Memory Technologies (+CXMT.CH) and Yangtze Memory Technologies (0HCR9G-E) were also re-included.
Digest:
BOJ reportedly set to hike next week, halt JGB purchase reductions in FY27:
Nikkei reported BOJ planning to raise rates by 25 bp at the June 15-16 policy meeting to address upside inflation risk, while halting further reductions to JGB purchases from April next year. Proposals for rate decision and purchase plan both expected to pass with a majority vote. Growing views within the BOJ that higher crude oil prices caused by Middle East turmoil will push up underlying inflation. Also, BOJ sources noted that with corporate cost pass-through activity picking up speed, deferring hikes now pose the risk they will need to raise rates sharply down the line. Sentiment is spreading within the bank that Middle East risks to economic growth momentum are so far limited, warranting a prioritization of inflation risks. Plans for JGB purchases would leave a monthly pace of JPY2.1T. Article noted the underlying dynamics of Middle East-induced inflation pressures and fiscal expansion concerns have driven 10y yields up to 2.8%, highest in 29-and-a-half years. While BOJ to this point has observed improvements in market functioning, there have been episodes of sharp yield rises indicating some market instability. Furthermore, BOJ's holdings will still decrease due to redemptions, which will keep the balance sheet normalization trajectory intact. Still, amid some views among market participants and BOJ in support of continued purchase reductions, MPC will monitor developments right up until the meeting and debate the matter.
Iran and Israel pause strikes against each other as tensions simmer:
Iran and Israel agreed to cease strikes against each other following weekend tit-for-tat that sparked concerns about a resumption of war (Reuters, Bloomberg). Both sides threatened to respond to any further instigation by the other. Israeli strikes were described as relatively limited and reportedly damaged a petrochemical facility. Iran's missile barrages, which were in response to an Israeli strike against Hezbollah in Beirut, were also intercepted.
Axios sources described phone call between President Trump and Israel PM Netanyahu in which Trump urged against escalation. Israel reportedly prepared for large-scale wave of strikes against Iran before Trump warned US might not aid Israel, prompting Netanyahu to call off planned offensive. Developments underscored fragility of ceasefire following repeated skirmishes between US and Iran in recent weeks. Israel has continued its campaign against Hezbhollah while Iran conditions an agreement with US on end to hostilities in Lebanon.
Market continues to expect deal will ultimately be reached, though timeline is uncertain and key sticking points remain.Iran demanding immediate access to some of its frozen assets while Trump administration saying that will only happen in later negotiations. Iran's insistence on managing Strait of Hormuz with fee collection runs against US demands for free and unfettered navigation. While Trump claims Iran has committed not to acquire a nuclear weapon, there remain questions around fate of uranium stockpiles.
China exports beat again amid AI and front-loaded demand:
Customs exports rose 19.4% y/y in dollar terms in May, above consensus 15.0%. Follows 14.1% in the previous month and marks the strongest since February. Imports moderately beat expectations, up 27.4% vs consensus 25.0% and 25.3% in prior month. According to early takes, growth in trade flows driven by a combination of AI demand and front-loading triggered by Middle East concerns (Bloomberg, Reuters). Exports of PCs & components reportedly jumped 66% y/y, strongest since 2010. A 111% surge in integrated circuits marked the largest growth since 2013. South Korea data showed semiconductor exports to China jumped over 200%. By region, China exports to US rose by almost 36%, highest since 2021, leading an accelerated pace across most major markets except for EU and Latin America. Notably, export prices climbed to the fastest rate in three years though has yet to spread to most domestic goods, suggesting domestic competition is limiting price hikes. Pull-back from front-loaded activity looms large for the outlook as export strength is no longer supporting broader manufacturing activity as indicated by latest subdued readings in PMIs and industrial production. Meanwhile, a broader developing theme has been sharp declines in crude oil imports to an eight-year low (Nikkei), noted in recent discussions as a key factor in alleviating global supply-demand conditions and hence prices which have been substantially lower at this stage than feared at the start of the Middle East conflict.
Indonesia central bank hikes base rates unexpectedly to cool market selloff:
Bank Indonesia unexpectedly raised its base interest rate 25 bps to 5.5% Tuesday in off-cycle decision as it looks to support rupiah, sovereign bond markets. Comes just weeks after it raised by 50 bps to support currency which has reached successive record lows over past two months; sovereign bonds also sold off sharply and equity markets at four-year lows as overseas investors exit concerned over fiscal spending plans, increased role of military in government, centralized commodity export agency.
Bank said it saw need hike rates to stabilize rupiah by raising yields, offering fresh incentives to encourage overseas inflow. Added move also preemptive measure to maintain inflation targets in 2026-27; would increase yields in BI rupiah securities, lower hedging swap rates for overseas investors, reopen auction window for repo instruments to shore up rupiah while increasing intensity of monetary forex operations. Rupiah rallied slightly on announcement, sovereign bond yields dipped slightly while JSX benchmark equity index rallied around 4.8%.
Pentagon makes major additions to list of 'Chinese military companies':
US Department of Defense published a Section 1260H review of 'Chinese military companies.' Many of them alleged to have ties with the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration -- either direct, indirect affiliation or by association as unit of a designated company. Following a plethora of additions, revised list now included Alibaba (9988.HK), Baidu (9888.HK), BYD (1211.HK), COSCO Shipping (1919.HK), CNOOC (883.HK), China Telecom (728.HK), China Unicom (762.HK), CATL (3750.HK), Hikvision (002415.CH), Huawei Technologies, SMIC (981.HK). Bloomberg recalled there was a previous version of this list that was posted briefly in February before being withdrawn minutes later without any explanation. A notable takeaway was that three of China's most prominent AI champions -- Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent -- have been declared with military ties, as well as the country's top EV firm (BYD). Article also noted memory chipmakers ChangXin Memory Technologies and Yangtze Memory Technologies were back on the list after being omitted from the February version. Removal of these names were reportedly the reason behind the retracted publication due to concerns that would give the impression the US no longer deemed them to be a threat. Latest version is among the most significant updates in its history, targeting nearly 200 companies and many of the m among China's most prominent.
Notable Gainers:
+10.0% 2327.TT (Yageo): reports May revenue NT$15.06B, +47.5% y/y
+9.9% 3008.TT (LARGAN Precision): its first automated CPO pilot production line expected to start trial production in Sept
+9.8% 6752.JP (Panasonic): looks to quadruple AI-related sales with data center batteries
+6.4% 3037.TT (Unimicron Technology): subsidiary Unimicron Technology (Suzhou) files for Hong Kong main board listing; reports May revenue NT$14.06B, +32.4% y/y
+0.5% 6669.TT (Wiwynn): reports May revenue NT$84.05B, +18.2% y/y
+0.4% 5401.JP (NIPPON STEEL): to invest up to $2.5B in U.S. Steel's Pennsylvania complex
Notable Decliners:
-0.7% 1301.TT (Formosa Plastics): reports May revenue NT$14.95B, +0.7% y/y
Data:
Economic:
China
May trade balance $105.4B vs consensus $92.1B and $84.8B in prior month
Exports +19.4% y/y vs consensus +15.0% and +14.1% in prior month
Imports +27.47% y/y vs consensus +25.0% and 25.3% in prior month
Australia
June Westpac-MI consumer sentiment index 80.6 vs 83.0 in May
May NAB business confidence -14 vs -24 n April
Business conditions +3 vs +3 in April
South Korea
Revised Q1 GDP +1.8% q/q vs preliminary +1.7% and revised (0.1%) in prior quarter
GDP +3.8% y/y vs preliminary +3.6% and +1.6% in prior quarter
Markets:
Nikkei: 1,392.03 or +2.17% to 65416.63
Hang Seng: (91.16) or (0.37%) to 24565.90
Shanghai Composite: 50.69 or +1.28% to 4010.03
Shenzhen Composite: 65.41 or +2.44% to 2742.63
ASX200: (20.90) or (0.24%) to 8604.20
KOSPI: 612.52 or +8.18% to 8096.93
SENSEX: 217.45 or +0.30% to 73741.71
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.04 or +0.02% to 160.2100
$-KRW: (7.36) or (0.48%) to 1519.5500
A$-$: +0.00 or +0.07% to 0.7049
$-INR: (0.10) or (0.11%) to 95.5448
$-CNY: +0.01 or +0.13% to 6.7749
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