Jun 12 ,2026
Synopsis:
European indices ended sharply higher with banks, travel/leisure, basic resources and telco outsized gainers, while energy the only sector in red. Risk appetite boosted by hopes that US-Iran will reach an agreement ahead of G7 summit, possibly a MoU to be signed Sunday in Geneva. Oil down, yields lower and central bank rate hike expectations ease.
Middle East tensions dialed back after President Trump called off planned military strikes and claimed main points of agreement have been approved. Axios sources revealed contents of MoU, which includes 60-day ceasefire extension, framework for addressing uranium stockpiles and an immediate reopening of Strait of Hormuz with no tolls. Yet, Iran said Hormuz will not return to pre-war levels.
European investors digesting yesterday's ECB policy decision. Sources after meeting said ECB unlikely to hike in July unless there is a material surge in energy prices. On macro data front, UK monthly activity numbers in the spotlight; April GDP contracted (0.1%) as expected. Final inflation from Germany, France and Spain in line with flash readings.
UK press dissects Starmer's leadership after resignation of defense ministers over long-term defense spending plans. Poll puts Burnham firmly in the lead ahead of next Thursday's by-election.
On a light corporate newsflow front, McBride (MCB.LN) issued a trading update whilst Novo Nordisk (NOVO.B.DC)'s Wegovy pill (semaglutide tablets) becomes the first daily GLP-1 weight-loss pill approved in the UK; in Germany, local press reports that Infineon Technologies (IFX.GR) is preparing itself for sustained strong business and is doubling its capacity in Dresden.
In M&A news, ING (ING.NA) reduced its stake in TMBThanachart Bank from 23.1% to 19.5% for ~€243M (TTB.TB). Orion CMC is exploring the acquisition of some or all of Duval family's 37% stake in Eramet (ERA.FP) and Adyen (ADYEN.NA) entered a definitive agreement to acquire enterprise billing platform Orb for $335M; also, holder Tirlán sold 9.7M Glanbia plc (GL9.ID) shares at €21.47/each.
Looking ahead to next week EU econ-calendar, notable releases on Monday will include, amongst others, Italy Apr trade balance, Eurozone Apr trade balance, industrial production, and Switzerland May PPI, Consumer Sentiment - SECO.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Banks +4.22%, Travel & Leisure +4.12%, Basic Resources +3.66%, Telecom +3.22%, Construct & Mtls +3.02%, Financial Svcs +2.65%, Technology +2.50%, Real Estate +2.03%, Persnl & HHold Goods +1.98%, Retail +1.90%
Underperformers:
Oil & Gas (0.96%), Utilities +0.28%, Food & Beverage +0.59%, Health Care +0.76%, Insurance +0.80%, Chemicals +1.27%, Media +1.34%, Autos & Parts +1.53%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.63%
Macro:
Central banks:
EU:
Europe is finally taking migration seriously -- UnHerd
UK:
Rejoining the EU makes total sense for Labour. That doesn't mean it's a good idea -- Telegraph
Germany:
German government spending only thing preventing GDP fall, Bundesbank says -- Reuters
Germany sees slow economic recovery as energy prices weigh -- GlobalBankingandFinance
Italy:
Exclusive: Italy working on new inflation-linker for institutional investors, debt chief says -- Reuters
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+11.0% ERA.FP (Eramet €55.10, +5.47) -- Orion CMC exploring acquisition of some or all of Duval family's 37% stake in Eramet - FT
+9.3% FIA1S.FH (Finnair €4.65, +0.39) -- sector move
+8.4% AF.FP (Air France-KLM €11.87, +0.92) -- sector move
+7.7% AZA.SS (Avanza Bank Holding SEK373.00, +27.10) -- Barclays upgrade
+7.1% IAG.LN (International Consolidated Airlines Group £4.34, +0.29) -- sector move
+6.6% NAS.NO (Norwegian Air Shuttle NOK15.29, +0.94) -- sector move
+6.1% FTK.GR (flatexDEGIRO €35.54, +2.08) -- initiated overweight at Barclays
+5.9% FRA.GR (Fraport €70.05, +3.90) -- May traffic figures
+5.5% ADYEN.NA (Adyen €814.10, +43.20) -- to acquire enterprise billing platform Orb for $335M through a reverse triangular merger
+5.4% RYA.ID (Ryanair Holdings €25.64, +1.30) -- sector move
+5.4% ALLDL.FP (Groupe LDLC €12.60, +0.64) -- FY earnings; initiated buy at TPICAP Midcap
+5.4% WIZZ.LN (Wizz Air Holdings £10.72, +0.55) -- sector move
+5.2% LHA.GR (Deutsche Lufthansa €8.58, +0.42) -- sector move
+4.4% RR.LN (Rolls-Royce Holdings £12.95, +0.55) -- Berenberg upgrade
+4.3% DEBS.LN (Debenhams Group £0.25, +0.01) -- signs sublease for US distribution centre with ID Logistics, cutting future lease liabilities
+4.1% GETI.B.SS (Getinge SEK194.65, +7.70) -- Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade
+3.6% INGA.NA (ING Groep €25.93, +0.89) -- reduces its stake in TMBThanachart Bank from 23.1% to 19.5% for ~€243M
+2.8% COLR.BB (Colruyt Group €35.72, +0.96) -- Oddo upgrade
Notable Decliners
-14.6% MCB.LN (McBride £1.50, -0.24) -- FY trading update
-5.6% DUNI.SS (Duni SEK77.70, -4.60) -- Q2 update
-4.9% REP.SM (Repsol €22.66, -1.17) -- sector move
-4.0% VBK.GR (Verbio €31.44, -1.34) -- sector move
-3.0% GL9.ID (Glanbia €22.14, -0.68) -- Tirlán sells 9.7M Glanbia plc shares at €21.47/each
-2.8% GALP.PL (Galp Energia SGPS €19.02, -0.54) -- sector move
-2.3% ENI.IM (Eni €23.03, -0.54) -- sector move
-2.1% TTE.FP (TotalEnergies €76.08, -1.62) -- sector move
-2.0% BP.LN (BP £5.29, -0.11) -- sector move
-1.7% SHEL.LN (Shell Plc £31.87, -0.56) -- pauses share buyback program until ARC shareholder meeting
-1.5% AKER.NO (Aker ASA NOK1,194.00, -18.00) -- sector move
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
DACHs: Addex Therapeutics (ADXN.SW)
UK: Peel Hunt (PEEL.LN), Team Internet Group (TIG.LN)
Data:
Economics:
France May CPI y/y +2.4% vs consensus +2.4% and prior revised to +2.2% from +2.2%
UK April
Construction Output y/y (1.0%) vs consensus (1.7%) and prior (0.3%)
Industrial Production y/y (0.2%) vs consensus (0.1%) and prior 0.0%
Trade Balance (£26.05B) vs consensus (£22.5B) and prior revised to (£27.22B) from (£27.22B)
Germany May CPI y/y +2.6% vs consensus +2.6% and prior +2.6%
Markets:
WTI Crude (26-Jul): ($3.27) or (3.73%) to $84.44
€-$ (0.0001) or (0.01%) to 1.1579
£-$ (0.0002) or (0.01%) to 1.3415
€-£ +0.0000 to 0.8631
S&P 500 +0.51%
Performance year-to-date:
FTSE 100: +5.44%
DAX: +0.59%
CAC: +2.47%
MIB: +14.58%
Stoxx 600: +6.93%
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