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StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +1.65%, Hang Seng (1.59%), Shanghai Composite (0.43%) as of 04:10 ET

Jun 18 ,2026

• Synopsis:

  • Asia equities ended mostly higher Thursday although Hong Kong again underperformed. South Korea's Kospi crossed 9K for the first time as the Taiex and Japan's Nikkei 225 also hit record highs. The Topix was also strong alongside Shenzhen's main benchmark. Australia gave up most of Wednesday's gains. Hong Kong fell below a key support level as energy and internet stocks fell, Shanghai's main board also closed lower. US futures higher, Europe opened with gains. US dollar higher; AUD higher, NZD lower, offshore yuan stronger, yen unchanged. Treasuries and JGBs mixed. Crude futures down again; precious metals lower; copper steady, more losses for iron ore. Cryptocurrencies lower.

  • Asia equities once again split between the 'hard tech' outperformance in northeast benchmarks and underperformance in Hong Kong, Australia and Southeast Asia. By the close, they had offset one other with the MSCI Asia Pac ex-Japan index only marginally higher even as the Taiex and Kospi reached fresh record highs. Sentiment supported by Persian Gulf developments and lower commodity prices as well as a lack of major surprises from the Fed overnight. Hong Kong's main index fell through 24K for the first time in a year, underpinning the weak performance of its internet- and consumer-facing stocks during a time of high capex and poor retail demand. Mainland oil & gas stocks also weighed notably today amid a substantially lower oil price.

  • In other developments, the US and Iranian presidents signed the MoU that brings hostilities in the Gulf to a formal end with both sides expected to continue negotiations in Switzerland on Friday. The positive sentiment sent Brent oil below $78/bl and, while regional inflation expectations have generally eased, today, the Philippines central bank hiked its reverse repo rate 25 bps to 4.75% to tackle domestic inflation, and Bank Indonesia also hiked by 25 bps just a week following its previous hike. Elsewhere, Japan authorities again signaled their willingness to tackle the weak yen just as it hit two-year lows, and levels previously associated with intervention. New Zealand Q1 GDP grew 0.8% y/y before onset of Iran conflict.

  • Renasas Electronics (6753.JP) has acquired US-based software developer Pictorus (0X26ZH-E) although terms were not disclosed. Obayashi (1802.JP) is to buy Multiplex Global (0JFXSP-E) for ¥84.47B ($526M) from Brookfield Business. Nippon Steel (5401.JP) CEO said he sees a strong American market lifting US Steel earnings but is still not satisfied with reforms at the company. SK Hynix (000660.KS) has shipped samples of its next generation chips to several major customers, according to a Reuters report. National Stock Exchange of India (+NSE.IN) filed for an IPO following a decade of regulatory-caused delay, will rival Reliance Jio (+RJIO.IN) listing in size.

• Digest:

  • Trump and Iran's president formally sign MoU to end conflict:

    • President Trump and Iran President Pezeshkian formally signed MoU to end conflict (Reuters, Bloomberg, link). Full MoU was released to press and was mostly in-line with previous leaks (Reuters). Addressing reporters at G7 Trump mounted defence of the agreement, arguing prolonged conflict would have resulted in economic catastrophe. Trump threatened to restart bombing if Iran doesn't abide by terms of deal though also said 60-days is not a hard deadline.

    • Trump appeared to soften previous red lines. MoU stipulates at a minimum Iran will dilute enriched uranium stockpiles inside country under IAEA supervision and Trump conveyed no urgency to extract material. Issue of enrichment and Iran's nuclear needs likely to prove more intricate and Trump nodded to possibility of Iran being allowed nuclear power for purposes like electricity. Trump accepted Iran retaining some of its ballistic missiles while agreement did not address Tehran's support for terrorist proxies.

    • Trump conceded US will eventually unfreeze Iranian assets if Tehran demonstrated good behavior. Establishment of $300B regional reconstruction fund invited some controversy though Trump pushed back against claims US will be investing and Reuters sources described it as a private investment vehicle that won't include any government funding and grants.

    • There was little clarity surrounding future of Strait of Hormuz. While MoU stipulated Iran will not charge fees during 60-day period it also noted Iran and Oman will discuss future administration of the Strait. Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf reasserted Tehran's claims of sovereignty, adding that it will be charging fees after 60 days.

  • BOJ widely predicted to hike again by year-end:

    • Bloomberg survey (n=44) showed some 90% of economists forecasting another BOJ rate hike by December. December itself was consensus (52%) followed by October (36%). Also polled earliest risk case which drew a majority of estimates in October, while nearly a quarter pointed to September. Amid attention on cadence of rate hikes going forward, many respondents noted Deputy Governor Uchida did not provide a clear signal. Article cited thoughts that pivoting Fed/ECB policy stance toward rate hikes will force BOJ to accelerate moves to avoid falling further behind the curve. JCER monthly survey published on the day before the BOJ decisions showed that following virtually unanimous expectations of a June hike, strong majority saw the next move by December and a lower majority projecting another move by Jun-27, leaving the policy rate at 1.5%. Forecasts disperse further toward Dec-27 though 50% see no further changes. Various consensus polls remain broadly consistent. Earlier Reuters survey similarly showed majority projections in Q4 and 2Q27 while latter shifted from 3Q27 in May. Nikkei QUICK BOJ Watcher survey indicated expectations for follow-up projections were more evenly split, slightly in favor of December over September. Also consistently tracks expectations of the terminal rate, where consensus remains at 1.5% with the distribution skewed somewhat to the upside.

  • China AI pair trade has gained momentum since April:

    • Bloomberg discussed how long Zhipu (2513.HK)/short MiniMax (100.HK) pair trade is emerging in China's AI sector and may gain more traction in early July. Noted Zhipu, formally known as Knowledge Atlas Technology, rose nearly 170% in current quarter while MiniMax fell nearly 50%, following both stocks' impressive initial rallies on their January debut. Series of model updates and pricing changes later led to the performance gap since April as fund managers saw Zhipu as evidently better model with more visible earnings potential. Noted Zhipu has been able to maintain sales volumes while hiking prices for its GLM models this year while MiniMax had to slash charge for its flagship M3 by 50% one week after launch. Meanwhile MiniMax likely to face more pressure in near-term when 65% of its total shares to be released on 8-July upon expiry of lockups on cornerstone investors in IPOs, compared with 6% of Zhipu's being freed for trading on 7-Jul. To be sure, some analysts pointed to similar long-term challenges for both AI startup amid competition from DeepSeek and more AI IPOs in the pipeline.

    • Separately ShanghaiSecuritiesNews highlighted the duo is likely to dual-list on Shanghai's STAR board following CSRC Chairman Wu Qing's speech at Lujiazui Forum, which he pledged to loosen listing standards to accommodate LLM developers and other advanced technologies (Bloomberg).

  • Indonesia and Philippines central banks hike rates to curb inflation, support currencies:

    • Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate 25 bps to 5.75%, as expected by majority of economists; follows 25 bps out-of-cycle hike last week, May's 50 bps increase. Overnight deposit rate raised 25 bps to 4.75%, lending facility up to 6.5%. Bank said it hiked rates and launched several measures to stem overseas investor exodus and support rupiah however economists continue to warn loss of fiscal discipline remained key risk for economy despite currency's w/w recovery (Bloomberg).

    • Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) raised target reverse repo rate 25 bps to 4.75% also as expected by majority of analysts with minority expecting 50 bps increase. Benchmark lending rate raised 25 bps to 5.25% from 5.0%, overnight lending rate raised to 4.25%. Bank said inflationary pressures remain strong amid elevated global oil, fertilizer prices that continue to drive food and domestic fuel prices higher,. Said this has led to higher core inflation expectations. Sees headline inflation breaching 4.0% ceiling this year and next, even FY28 inflation will still be slightly above 3.0% target. Said action will complement fiscal measures to support consumption, strengthen business sentiment. Inflation peaked at 7.2% y/y in April, was 6.8% in May.

  • New Zealand economic growth quickened before full impact of Iran conflict:

    • New Zealand Q1 GDP growth rose to an in-line 0.8% q/q from upwardly revised 0.5% in Q4. Growth was lower than the 1% RBNZ forecast in May. Brought yearly rate of growth to 1.5% from 1.3%, better than consensus 1.1%. Main contribution came from 1.9% lift in manufacturing (transportation, machinery, and equipment). Biggest drag came from 11.6% decline in mining (oil and gas), while residential and non-residential buildings drove 1% decline in construction. By expenditure, household consumption rose 0.5% following mild contraction in prior quarter, driven by spending on both services and durable goods. Investment climbed following prior quarter contraction, driven by plant, machinery and equipment spending. Net trade was a drag though reflecting sharp growth in imports of capital goods that offset dairy-led growth in exports.

    • StatsNZ noted Q1 GDP was not heavily impacted by Middle East conflict and late-quarter fuel price increases, with more significant impacts expected in Q2. In May RBNZ forecast zero GDP growth in Q2 with conflict imposing 0.6% drag. RBNZ has already conveyed inflation as its main priority and has prepared market for rate hikes in coming meetings. Updated forecasts modeled OCR of 2.51% by Q3-2026 and 2.84% by year-end, implying at least two rate hikes this year. Market pricing in 80% chance of July rate hike.

  • Notable Gainers:

    • +2.1% 5269.TT (Asmedia Technology): Targets to double annual revenue to $1B (NT$31.5B) in five years - Economic Daily News

    • +1.6% 6723.JP (Renesas Electronics): Acquires Pictorus; terms not disclosed

    • +1.2% 4528.JP (Ono Pharmaceutical): Ono Pharmaceutical's Deciphera doses first patient in phase 3 INTREPID study of sapablursen for polycythemia vera

  • Notable Decliners:

    • -10.0% 002568.CH (Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group): Proposes CNY1.31B private placement for whisky expansion

    • -5.1% 051910.KS (LG Chem): Enters into research collaboration, option and licensing deal with LabGenius Therapeutics for tumour-targeting antibody

• Data:

  • Economic:

    • New Zealand Q1

      • GDP +0.8% q/q vs consensus +0.8% and revised +0.5% in Q4

        • GDP +1.5% y/y vs consensus +1.1% and +1.3% in Q4

  • Markets:

    • Nikkei: 1,151.24 or +1.65% to 71053.49

    • Hang Seng: (387.35) or (1.59%) to 23924.81

    • Shanghai Composite: (17.59) or (0.43%) to 4090.48

    • Shenzhen Composite: 15.01 or +0.53% to 2853.37

    • ASX200: (55.20) or (0.62%) to 8911.10

    • KOSPI: 199.60 or +2.25% to 9063.84

    • SENSEX: 110.85 or +0.14% to 77266.47

  • Currencies:

    • $-¥: (0.04) or (0.03%) to 160.6070

    • $-KRW: +1.35 or +0.09% to 1530.1800

    • A$-$: +0.00 or +0.23% to 0.7031

    • $-INR: (0.57) or (0.60%) to 94.2441

    • $-CNY: +0.00 or +0.03% to 6.7598