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StreetAccount Summary - Asian Market Recap: Nikkei +0.28%, Hang Seng 0.00%, Shanghai Composite 0.00% as of 04:10 ET

Jun 19 ,2026

• Synopsis:

  • Asia equities ended mostly lower Friday in thin trade. Japan's Topix ended down but the Nikkei ended higher and above 71K for the first time. Sharp declines in Australia, Singapore and the rest of Southeast Asia; India weighed by software stocks after Accenture warning. South Korea's Kospi ended with small losses. Greater China and Taiwan markets closed for a holiday. US futures lower, Europe opened with modest gains. US dollar surged to a 12-month high with DXY index above 101; yen stable despite warnings over intervention, AUD, NZD, offshore yuan all weaker. Treasury yield curve steepening, JGB yields higher across the curve. Crude futures reversing early losses to trade slightly higher with Brent back at $80/bl. Precious metals selling off sharply, base metals back under pressure. Cryptocurrencies lower.

  • Asia equities ended on a down note as markets pared bright opening on reports of Israeli attacks into southern Lebanon, and the subsequent postponement of Iran-US talks that were due to take place in Switzerland today. Crude oil futures also reversed from declines into small gains while many sovereign bond yields ticked higher. The US dollar also rose sharply, weighing further on regional currencies already under pressure from the Fed's hawkish hold this week. Nevertheless, despite Friday's weakness, Asia benchmarks posted a positive week-on-week advance with the Kospi up almost 14%, the Taiex up over 5%, gains in Southeast Asia and India while Japan's main boards outperformed. Hong Kong main index underperformed notably as its IT & internet names sank.

  • In other developments Friday, Japan May headline CPI rose 1.5% y/y, in line with forecasts, while core rose 1.4%; BOJ minutes from April showed several members favored a faster rate hike trajectory. South Korea producer prices rose 8.5% y/y, the fastest pace in four years, and up 0.9% m/m - the ninth consecutive month of increases. Malaysia exports rose 45.3% y/y to a record high and imports rose less than expected, but inflation rose to 2.0% y/y, its highest in almost two years. Late Thursday, Taiwan's central bank kept its rate on hold and raised FY growth forecasts

  • Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AU) has appointed a new CTO and CIO to boost its AI and technology strategies. TSMC (2330.TT) has signed a 10-year chip agreement with Amkor to beef up supply chain resilience in the US. Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) is to acquire SoftBank's (9984.JP) stake in Boston Dynamics for around KRW500B ($325M) to wholly own the company. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) is considering the divestment of several home appliance units this year, according to a JoongAng report.

• Digest:

  • VP Vance postpones trip to Switzerland for talks with Iran:

    • VP Vance postponed Friday trip to Switzerland for talks with Iran as part of 60-day negotiation period for final agreement (Axios, Reuters, Bloomberg). White House spokesperson cited logistical challenges, though also suspicions delay connected to continued fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Israeli strike on southern Lebanon Thursday killed four people with Iranian media claiming violation of ceasefire, posing early test of MoU signed this week.

    • There had already been some confusion this week about whether formal signing ceremony would proceed in Geneva after Iran's foreign ministry said it was unnecessary. While two sides were expected to begin technical talks following MoU signing, Iran's Tasnim said they would hinge on signs MoU terms are being implemented. While MoU stipulated end to war on all fronts, including Lebanon, Israel has expressed dissatisfaction with the agreement and signaled no intention of pulling back from southern Lebanon.

    • Crude under pressure this week with WTI back to early March lows, weighed down by expected ramp in Strait of Hormuz shipping activity, moves by Gulf states to restart production, and prospect of unsanctioned Iranian supply hitting market. Oil supply relief has mostly overshadowed skepticism about durability of MoU and final agreement being reached. There is uncertainty surrounding future management of Strait of Hormuz. Vance failed to offer clarity on whether Iran will eventually be allowed to charge fees after 60 days as claimed by Iran. Normalization of oil flows may take several weeks with some shippers cautious about resuming voyages.

  • Japan Finance Minister Katayama repeats warnings of bold action, but emphasis seems toned down:

    • Following latest warnings from Finance Minister Katayama on the yen Friday, Bloomberg highlighted her use of the phrase "bold action" that is typically taken to signal FX intervention, though later acknowledged rhetoric wasn't as assertive as those in late April. The more sober take was consistent with Nikkei's interpretation, which noted rhetoric has toned down compared to the lead-up to the intervention operations carried out during Golden Week. Those remarks gave explicit signals as to the proximity of government action -- telegraphing that "it's about time" decisive measures were taken, leading to a "final evacuation notice" from FX policy chief Mimura, while Katayama advised participants not to leave their smartphones over the holidays. In context, the piece noted that much of the latest moves revolve around the dollar, which strengthened amid hawkish takeaways from the FOMC meeting during an eventful week for central banks in which all G3 economies held policy meetings. Yen pressures resumed after the passage of elevated event risk, reflecting perceived widening of US-Japan rate differentials, particularly in real terms. Article cited thoughts that this is one of the key differences to the conditions surrounding the prior round of intervention in 2024, helping to define broadly based yen pressures that stand to limit the efficacy of operations (with the addition of deteriorating terms of trade).

  • Latest BOJ-speak offers few new clues after rate hike, but cadence was debated in April:

    • In the BOJ's semiannual testimony on currency and monetary control before the lower house Financial Affairs committee, Deputy Governor Himino briefly summarized the rationale behind this week's rate hike while reiterating guidance from the policy statement that rates will be raised further while the timing and pace will be determined through monitoring of Middle East impacts.

    • BOJ also published minutes for the previous April meeting, which drew attention for the 6-3 vote count. Content was mostly unsurprising in that discussions steered towards a wait-and-see stance for the moment as board members weighed risks to inflation vs growth amid elevated crude oil prices triggered by the Iran war.

    • However, summary revealed that despite Middle East uncertainties, "some members" supported a rate hike at that meeting, hinting there were more hawks than the vote count would indicate. However, this could be down to translation as the Japanese phrasing does not distinguish between 'a few' and 'some.' Moreover, the upshot is limited to one more advocate for a hike, beyond which would mean a majority of five members. Furthermore, this week's hike makes the growing hawkish camp a moot point.

    • With attention now mostly on the cadence of policy adjustments going forward, this was a specific discussion topic at the April MPM. If developments tracked in line with the baseline scenario, many members supported an "appropriate pace." One member suggested if a recovery in crude oil supply came in sight, they should return to the previous pace of hikes (widely regarded in the markets as once every six months). Some members noted prolonged Middle East conflict and high crude oil prices would warrant taking rates to neutral sooner to head off underlying inflation overshoot. One of these members reaffirmed an existing stance, offering the most specific proposal for a rate hike every few months, while adding the pace should be accelerated without hesitation if inflation risks increased.

    • Furthermore, doves did not offer much resistance to the rate hike trajectory. There was some debate about potential ramifications from large-scale supply chain disruptions, which could ultimately bring underlying inflation significantly below the price target. This member advocated for no rate hikes in this scenario. But another argued the BOJ's response should not be via rates but through ample liquidity provisions.

  • Japan core CPI in line:

    • Core CPI rose 1.4% y/y in May, matching expectations and steady vs the previous month. Ex-fresh food & energy inflation edged down to 1.8%, also in line, from 1.9%. Energy drags eased by 0.11 ppt, mostly reflecting smaller declines in gasoline. Still, policy support now most concentrated in gasoline via the price cap subsidy while electricity & gas support has rolled off.

    • Elsewhere, the only other notable factor was an extension of moderation in non-fresh food prices. Closely watched rice prices fell for the first time since Nov-22, already foretold by the preceding Tokyo figures. Base effect headwinds peaked in May and will ease meaningfully from July onwards. Prices have fallen sequentially for six straight months in a gradual easing of supply shortages helped by the release of government reserves.

    • Going forward, latest JCER consensus survey still shows core inflation seen bottoming out at +1.69% in Q2 and rebounding to 2.94% by 1Q27 reflecting Middle East effects. Since the US-Iran MOU was signed and Strait of Hormuz reopened, attention shifts to the next poll to gauge recalibrations. However, discussions have widely established that normalization of petroleum prices and supply chains would likely take up to several months. Macro forecasts have generally assumed the strait would reopen by around mid-year as the baseline scenario.

    • On policy implications, BOJ raised rates this week and reaffirmed a hawkish bias prompted by upside inflation risks. Among the BOJ's supplementary inflation metrics, the one most discussed was the core CPI excluding institutional factors which picked up to +2.8% y/y in April from +2.5% in the prior month.

  • Nikkei tops 70K, latest bull run largely free of alarm signals:

    • After Nikkei closed above 70K for the first time Thursday, market narrative made the case the latest strength has been largely underpinned by fundamentals and without inflated valuations and elevated volatility that typically accompanies sharp upswings.

    • Nikkei top story Friday featured this theme, noting the index took less than two months to extend the key milestone from 60K. While acknowledging sustainability depends largely on AI tailwinds, earnings outlook remains bullish, citing QUICK-FactSet aggregates showing consensus projections for aggregate Topix EPS growth of 16% in 2026 followed by 11% in the next two years. Main dynamic is the permeation of AI tailwinds for companies involved in semiconductors and investor confidence was galvanized after digesting the latest earnings season.

    • As an indication of longevity, article cited Goldman Sachs noting hyperscaler capex projections point to $5.3T in spending through 2030 among the US big four names alone. BNP Paribas argued the contrast between the dot.com IT bubble -- when internet took about a decade for devices such as smartphones to utilize the technology -- to the current AI boom where there is already widespread demand.

    • Another angle was that share prices have risen without spikes in PER. Current Nikkei and Topix aggregates are tracking around 18x, paling in contrast to the 130x seen in the former Topix First Section during the dot.com bubble.

    • Separate Nikkei piece looked at technical price action. Recent sessions displayed higher closes from lower opens, which was seen as constructive. Also, with Nikkei so far up more than 20K in absolute terms YTD, the bulk of gains have come during the main session rather than overnight in a reversal of the trend in prior years. Active buying interest in single-stock cash equities was mentioned as another positive element.

    • A notable characteristic of current strength has been the relative stability in Nikkei VIX, where current levels in the low 30s are nowhere near the recent peak of 57 early this year, described as another indication of the cash-driven dynamic. While technical indicators (Nikkei has frequently mentioned the variance from moving averages) indicate overbought levels, the activity during the cash session seen attesting to robust market conditions.

  • Notable Gainers:

    • +30% 204270.KS (JNTC Co.): On report of successful development of the world's first 2.0MmT TGV glass substrate

  • Notable Decliners:

    • -2.3% 005930.KS (Samsung Electronics): Weighs divesting some home appliance businesses this year - Korea JoongAng Daily

    • -1.9% 068270.KS (Celltrion): Notes part 1 approval for European Phase 3 Clinical Trial Plan for CT-P13 SC has expired

• Data:

  • Economic:

    • Japan

      • May nationwide core CPI +1.4% y/y vs consensus +1.4% and +1.4% in prior month

        • CPI excl. fresh food & energy +1.8% y/y vs consensus +1.8% and +1.9% in prior month

        • Overall CPI +1.5% y/y vs consensus +1.5% and +1.4% in prior month

    • New Zealand

      • May trade balance NZ$800M vs revised NZ$1,598M in April

        • Exports +18% y/y vs +12.3% in April

        • Imports +26% y/y vs +3.4% in April

  • Markets:

    • Nikkei: 196.57 or +0.28% to 71250.06

    • Hang Seng: Closed

    • Shanghai Composite: Closed

    • Shenzhen Composite: Closed

    • ASX200: (82.40) or (0.92%) to 8828.70

    • KOSPI: (11.42) or (0.13%) to 9052.42

    • SENSEX: (901.08) or (1.16%) to 76508.90

  • Currencies:

    • $-¥: (0.11) or (0.07%) to 161.2660

    • $-KRW: (10.80) or (0.70%) to 1527.5600

    • A$-$: 0.00 or 0.00% to 0.7013

    • $-INR: +0.07 or +0.07% to 94.4418

    • $-CNY: (0.00) or (0.01%) to 6.7683