Jun 22 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asian equities ended mostly higher Monday. Taiwan, mainland China and Japan outperformed, supported by big gains in tech names. South Korea also rose although regulators in Seoul admitted single-stock ETFs focusing on country's top two memory names were launched too hastily and mulled stabilization measures. Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia all lower. India trading higher. US futures slightly lower. Bonds weaker with Treasury and JGB yields up along the curve. Crude erased initial gains from signs of progress in Middle East peace talks with gold and silver off lows. Dollar strongest against Korean won and yen. Bitcoin rebounding.
Asian stocks swung higher as US and Iran held high-level talks in Switzerland, focusing on issues including nuclear deal, keeping Strait of Hormuz open, release of frozen assets, and enforcing Lebanon ceasefire. Both sides described progress in talks, which are set to resume later today. Talks overshadowed by Trump threatened to relaunch strikes and Iran declared Strait of Hormuz closed amid tensions over continued fighting in Lebanon. Rhetorical back-and-forth drove initial rebound in crude, which has since shed early gains amid reports of progress during talks. Bloomberg-compiled data showed companies in MSCI EM Index are beating profit estimates for first time in four years, building case for further rallies that are powered by Asian tech and AI giants.
In regional developments, China left 1Y and 5Y loan prime rates unchanged as expected. China has added ten US companies, including MP Materials (MP) and USA Rare Earth (USAR) to export control list, in response to Pentagon's decision to place several Chinese companies under restrictions earlier this month. South Korea's exports over first 20 days of June maintained prior month's strong growth amid booming chip shipments. India looking for competitive advantage over rival countries before enacting trade agreement with US.
South Korean authorities mulling steps to curb risks from leveraged single-stock ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS) while SK Hynix surpassed Samsung Electronics to become country's most valuable company. TOTO (5332.JP) to invest $495M in next five years to expand semiconductor materials business. WiseTech Global (WTC.AU) fell more than 18% on widespread media reports that Australian police were investigating its founder.
Digest:
US and Iran make progress in high-level talks:
US delegation led by VP Vance met Iranian officials including Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi in Switzerland for second round of talks following last week's MoU (Bloomberg, Axios, link). Joint statement by Qatar and Pakistan noted progress was made, including roadmap towards reaching final deal within 60 days. Parties agreed on creation of de-confliction mechanism and commitment to end fighting in Lebanon, and line of communication to maintain safe passage through Strait of Hormuz.
Araghchi also announced major progress made on waiving oil sanctions, lifting of US naval blockade, release of some frozen assets, and creation of Iran reconstruction plan, though declared first test will Lebanon de-confliction. High-level negotiations wrapped up with technical talks to continue over remainder of week. Sources told Axios in first round of talks US wants Iranian invitation for UN inspectors to visit nuclear sites and in return US would allow Iran access to $6B in frozen funds.
Volatile backdrop to talks after President Trump threatened to relaunch strikes and Iran declared Strait of Hormuz closed amid tensions over continued fighting in Lebanon. However, practical implications muted with vessels carrying millions of barrels of crude reportedly transited Strait of Hormuz after Iran declared it closed. (Bloomberg). Iran has also begun crude loadings at Kharg Island after US blockade lifted (Bloomberg). However, there remains uncertainty surrounding issue of tolls after Iran reiterated it would begin charging "insurance" fees after 60 days (FT). Trump countered there will be no tolls after 60 days unless imposed by US under "Guardian Angel" if no deal is reached.
SK Hynix overtakes Samsung in market value, regulator voices concern over ETFs:
Another record high for South Korean equities with Kospi moving above 9K on back of continued memory rally driven largely by SK Hynix (000660.KS). SK Hynix overtook Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) as South Korea's largest company, the latter losing top spot for first time in over 25 years (Reuters). SK Hynix now world's most valuable memory chipmaker. SK Hynix's dominant market position in HBM, steeper growth trajectory and positive sentiment surrounding an expected US ADR listing has widened its outperformance over Samsung with stock up 260% qtd vs Samsung's 111%.
Retail flows key driver of Kospi's rally though have also been cited for bouts of volatility during index's run-up with margin debt nearing record high (Chosun). Creation of single stock ETFs focused exclusively on Samsung and SK Hynix have heightened angst and prompted admission by head of Korea's Financial Supervisory Service that products were launched too hastily (Bloomberg). With combined ETF asset value having risen three-fold since their late May launch, Lee Chan-jin said officials working with other regulatory bodies on stabilization measures, warning risk of significant shock to households during periods of volatility.
More bearish JGB market themes:
Nikkei discussed growing views 10y JGB yields will hit 3% by year-end. Among a number of drivers, article highlighted caution towards the government's next economic blueprint update due in July. This is an extension of broader fiscal risk, following a phase last month that saw elevated concerns about debt growth prompted by lead-up discussions about the FY26 supplementary budget, which was somewhat allayed after details were confirmed.
As such, 10y yield peaked at 2.8% on 18-May and market conditions have since improved amid the signing of the US-Iran MOU and passage of BOJ/ECB/FOMC meetings all falling on the same week. While relative stability would seem to be conducive for a revival in buying interest, anecdotal evidence has indicated ongoing investor caution. Banks remained generally sidelined with one regional lender noting constraints from its deposit pool and available funds will be allocated to the intermediate sector with low risk. In superlongs, one insurer remains a buyer of JGBs though only enough to meet needs. A dealer said upside risk for yields posed by the economic blueprint is warding off buyers.
The next update will be the first under the fiscally proactive Takaichi administration and serve as the basis for FY27 budget formulation. Such risks stand to be realized if content presents growth strategies devoid of clear funding sources. Markets will also focus on the so-called 'new investment framework' separated from regular expenditure, and to what extend the medium-term fiscal management plan will consider future increases in interest payments.
In a separate piece, Nikkei looked at the increasing urbanization of savings deposits, leaving Japan Post Bank (7182.JP) with a shrinking pool with which to funnel into to government-mandated JGB purchases. Underlying drivers are structural and demographic. Burgeoning growth in internet banks are concentrated in the cities, while inheritance funds are flowing from regional areas where deaths occur to their recipients living in the cities. Japan Post savings deposits peaked at JPY260T in 1999 before privatization. Balance has now dropped below JPY200T, eclipsed by MUFJ (8306.JP). While Japan Post has increased its allocation into risk assets since privatization, it remains a major holder of JGBs (~JPY40T at 2025-end), rivaling all other banks combined (JPY50T), and considered one of the 'whales' in the same echelon as GPIF.
Stronger earnings may prompt more fund flows to EM stocks:
Bloomberg-compiled data showed weighted average EPS reported by companies in MSCI EM Index in 12 months through May was 95.1 index points, rising above analysts' estimates of 94.6 made a year ago, for first time in four years. Results driven by Asian tech and AI giants, including SK Hynix's (000660.KS) exceeding Q1 profit estimates by 43%, Samsung's (005930.KS) 16% and TSMC's (2330.TT) 5.7% profit beat during same period. Meanwhile profits in other sectors, including Indian oil refiners and Brazilian electricity companies, also improving. Several fund managers believed evidence of healthy profit growth signals market rally being built on strong fundamentals, rather than speculative froth, might prompt more fund flows to EM stocks. Added EM tech stocks still trading at steep discount to US peers while generating faster earnings growth. China getting out of deflation with industrial recovery, slowing equity issuance and more buybacks adding to bull case. Meanwhile dominance of AI outperformance raising concerns about concentration risk as only Asian firms beating expectations by wide margin. By sector, consumer staples and consumer discretionary are among biggest laggards, while healthcare, real estate and utilities also underperform.
Inflation data, PMIs, central bank speeches feature this week:
CPI prints feature this week with fuel-driven cost pressures seen lifting Australian underlying inflation (Wed). Tokyo CPI (Fri) forecast to show subsidies helping to keep core inflation below 2% as energy prices rise. Singapore inflation (Tues) seen rising to 2% midpoint of MAS' 2026 forecast. Elsewhere, US PCE (Thurs) forecast to show pickup in core inflation following last week's hawkish Fed hold that firmed expectations of rate hike later this year.
Few central bank calendar items with BOJ Summary of Opinions (Wed) to detail board member views that informed last week's rate hike and thoughts on path ahead. Deputy Governor Himino (Wed) and board member Tamura (Thurs) to speak this week. RBA Deputy Governor Hauser (Wed) remarks after Governor Bullock said June hold decision does not preclude further tightening with inflation still too high.
Asia flash PMIs (Tues) to be read over for strength in factory activity at major tech exporting economies and prevalence of input cost pressures. Australia employment (Thurs) forecast to show jobs rebound and downtick in unemployment rate from Nov-2021 high. Australia household spending (Thurs) expected to show slight recovery following of cost-of-living hit to April consumption. Taiwan export orders expected to feature another strong result on semiconductors. China left loan prime rates unchanged as expected (Mon).
Notable Gainers:
+18.1% 9449.JP (GMO Internet Group): to launch up to 16.0M-share buyback for up to ¥30.00B
+15.9% 3086.JP (J. FRONT RETAILING): 3D Investment Partners discloses 5.10% stake
+14% 293490.KS (Kakao Games): completes placement and convertible notes offering, raising KRW300.00B
+11% 5332.JP (TOTO Ltd): reportedly to invest ¥80B in semiconductor materials business over next five years
+7.6% 066570.KS (LG Electronics): major LG Group affiliates reportedly entering further discussions on next-gen AI partnership with NVIDIA
+7.1% 6674.JP (GS Yuasa): to increase prices of automotive lead-acid batteries
Notable Decliners:
-30% 085620.KS (MIRAE ASSET Life Insurance): responds to media report; no plan to delist voluntarily
-7.1% 9501.JP (Tokyo Electric Power Co. Holdings): reportedly in talks for capital tie-up with five partners
Data:
Markets:
Nikkei: 1,103.90 or +1.55% to 72353.96
Hang Seng: (156.29) or (0.65%) to 23768.52
Shanghai Composite: 72.62 or +1.78% to 4163.10
Shenzhen Composite: 48.45 or +1.70% to 2901.82
ASX200: (12.60) or (0.14%) to 8816.10
KOSPI: 62.13 or +0.69% to 9114.55
SENSEX: 366.96 or +0.48% to 77169.86
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.36 or +0.22% to 161.7410
$-KRW: +0.65 or +0.04% to 1539.0100
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.24%) to 0.6997
$-INR: +0.30 or +0.32% to 94.6767
$-CNY: +0.01 or +0.08% to 6.7747
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