Jun 22 ,2026
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly mixed/little changed. Last week, European markets ended the week on a modestly positive note, with the Stoxx 600 +0.38% posting its second consecutive week of advances. The main driver was the US-Iran framework agreement, which eased geopolitical tensions and triggered a sharp decline in oil prices. Central bank decisions also featured prominently, with the BoE holding rates at 3.75% and adopting a hawkish stance, though weak labour market and activity data limited its impact. Elsewhere, the Norges Bank delivered a hawkish hold and signalled a likely rate increase later this year, while the Riksbank and SNB took more measured approaches, with the latter keeping rates at zero and focusing on foreign exchange intervention. This week's agenda sees sees EU-Moldova Summit, in Sweden there's Almedalen Week, Eurozone, France, Germany, UK Jun flash manufacturing/services PMIs as well as earnings/updates from the likes of Berkeley Group Holdings (BKG.LN) and H&M Hennes & Mauritz (HM.B.SS)
US and Iran held high level talks in Switzerland focused on issues including nuclear deal, keeping Strait of Hormuz open, release of frozen assets, and enforcing Lebanon ceasefire. Both sides described progress in talks, which are set to resume Monday. Volatile backdrop to the negotiations after Trump threatened to relaunch strikes and Iran declared Strait of Hormuz closed amid tensions over continued fighting in Lebanon.
Focus on UK politics on reports (FT , BBC) UK PM Starmer is preparing to resign as early as Monday and will set out a timetable for departure after Andy Burnham's decisive by-election win. Said Starmer reached the conclusion that his position is untenable after recent conversations with cabinet ministers, advisers and trade union leaders. Allies of Burnham are increasingly confident of a coronation-style transfer of power due to the large number of MPs supporting him for leadership. The Guardian suggested there could be up to 300 MPs backing Burnham, which will complicate a challenge by former health secretary Streeting. Debate has already shifted to who will be responsible for the Treasury given the pressure on UK public finances. Burnham camp is said to be divided over chancellor pick (FT). There is speculation that Burnham will sack Reeves to signal a change in policy direction (Telegraph). Foreign secretary Cooper has been touted in the weekend press, along with Streeting, work and pensions secretary McFadden and former defense secretary Healey.
European macro data releases out today including Ireland May PPI, Eurozone Jun flash consumer confidence
In central banks, Austria central bank/EIB event title Trade Policy beyond the Inflection Point: Economic Implications for Austria, governor Kocher panellist at 11:00CET. ECB's Lagarde in a meeting at 12noon CET with the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC) executive committee after which is before EP committee at 15:00 (livestream) and then a panellist at 17:15 along with EU's Dombrovskis, other at event hosted by House of the Euro. Denmark central bank's Krogstrup panellist at 16:00 CET at CEBRA 2026 (through Wed). Bundesbank's Nagel speech at 13:00CET on monetary policy before Bundestag budget committee. Central Bank of Ireland, Riksbank, Netherlands central bank, Bundesbank annual macroprudential conf (through Tue), Ireland central bank's Makhlouf opening remarks at 9:15BST, former President of Netherlands central bank Knot panellist at 11:15, Bundesbank's Köhler-Geib, SNB's Martin panellists at 13:30, whilst ECB's Donnery chairs panel at 11:45CET on Tue. Bank of Italy's Panetta speech at workshop in memory of Robert Mundell. Czech central bank releases its latest Financial Stability Report. First of the ECB's Economic Bulletin pre-releases published at 10:00CET. In Sweden, there's Almedalen Week (through Fri) with Riksbank's Bunge panellist at 14:00CET. EU-Moldova summit sees EU's Costa and von der Leyen meet with Moldova's President Sandu; opening remarks at 11:45CET and following the Summit, they will hold a joint press conf at ~14:30CET.
Politics/Macro/World News
Top company news
Earnings/updates
P911.GR (Porsche) -- to cut production - Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung
Also reporting today
Earnings:
UK: NextEnergy Solar Fund (NESF.LN)
CMD/Events: BT Group (BT.A.LN) business update call, Italgas (IG.IM) strategic plan 2026-32, Cantargia (CANTA.SS) investor meeting - key opinion leader
M&A
SGF.IM (Sogefi) -- exercises put option for the sale of the United Springs business unit to One Equity Partners
BN.FP (Danone) -- to make two acquisitions in APAC; terms undisclosed
TPG (TPG, Inc.) -- TPG to sell Made Group to Danone - Australian Financial Review
ELIS.FP (Elis) -- announces withdrawal of its notification to the CCPC regarding the acquisition of OCL; to abandon the proposed acquisition
ALX.AU (Atlas Arteria) -- increases target FY DPS to at least A$0.60; enters into discussions for potential all-cash sale of Warnow Tunnel
DECB.BB (Deceuninck) -- Holding of Grano BV et al in Deceuninck exceeded 30% on 11-Jun
AX1.AU (Accent Group) -- reports IBC recommends shareholders reject offer from Frasers
BAM (Brookfield Asset Management) -- in advanced talks to acquire XpFibre - Bloomberg
Family owners of KNDS agree to sell 40% interest to German government - Bloomberg
Healthcare
MLTX (MoonLake Immunotherapeutics) -- reports week 52 results of Phase 3 VELA-1 and VELA-2 clinical trials with patients with moderate-to-severe HS, no new safety signals detected in trials to date supporting consistent safety profile through Week 52
Other
OCDO.LN (Ocado Group) -- Ocado looking for new CEO - Sky News
BPE.IM (BPER Banca) -- ECB approves up-to-€750.0M buyback for BPER Banca
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $228.1M, +81.9% y/y - Box Office Mojo
Leonardo indicates Italy would be open to Germany joining Global Combat Air Programme - FT, citing CEO
UK government green paper expected to force YouTube, Meta to make UK news more prominent - FT
Key rating changes
Upgrades
BMW.GR (BMW) -- to neutral from underperform at BofA
RHM.GR (Rheinmetall) -- to outperform from neutral at Oddo
CA.FP (Carrefour) -- resumed overweight at Morgan Stanley; prior rating was equal-weight
INF.LN (Informa) -- to buy from neutral at Citi
Downgrades
UMI.BB (Umicore) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
CCC.LN (Computacenter) -- to add from buy at Peel Hunt
STORY.B.SS (Storytel) -- to hold from buy at Pareto
SHA0.GR (Schaeffler) -- to hold from buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
Initiations
FII.FP (Lisi) -- buy at Berenberg
ATG.LN (Auction Technology Group) -- hold at Panmure Liberum
Data
Nikkei +1.54% to 72347.08
Hang Seng (0.90%) to 23709.72
Shanghai Composite +0.84% to 4124.75
S&P futures (25.0) vs prior close of 7570.8
€-$ (0.0004) or (0.03%) to 1.1456
$-¥ +0.43 or +0.26% to 161.70
€-¥ +0.42 or +0.23% to 185.22
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