Jun 23 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia markets fell almost everywhere Tuesday. South Korea's Kospi 10% lower despite circuit breakers; Taiwan's Taiex and Japan's Nikkei 225 also fell sharply. Greater China markets were lower with Hang Seng at a 12-month low. India pared early gains, Singapore a few points ahead, other southeast Asia boards mixed. US futures lower, Europe opened with losses. US dollar hovered near recent highs; AUD, NZD and won weaker, yen unchanged. Treasury and JGB yields mixed. Crude oil futures lower as Brent fell below $78/bl. Precious metals sharply lower, industrial metals also under pressure. Cryptocurrencies mostly lower.
Asia stocks fell notably Tuesday with steep declines in South Korea despite a 20-minute trading halt as concerns over a bubble in technology stocks grew, and SpaceX declined sharply on Wall Street overnight. The biggest losses were in chip companies Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS) while exporters such as Hyundai Motor (005380.KS) were also hit as the won came under renewed pressure. There were also notable declines in Japan's SoftBank (9984.JP) and Tokyo Electron (8035.JP) while Nanya Tech (2408.TT) led decliners in Taiwan. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng dipped to a one-year low as its consumer-facing internet & IT names came under renewed pressure following last week's poor retail sales data.
Markets largely brushed off an upbeat assessment of US-Iran talks in Switzerland although crude oil futures dipped further. Risk assets now focused on bond yields, especially Treasuries that ticked higher overnight amid concerns the Fed's new chair will dispose of various guidance tools. Currencies across the region weakened as Asia yields ticked higher however the yen was stable despite news emerging US Treasury Secretary Bessent talked to Japan finance minister Katayama over policy response options. Today, Seoul authorities also warned on the won's weakness, flagging possible intervention. Elsewhere, June flash PMIs from Australia, Japan and India were broadly positive although input costs remained elevated. Singapore May CPI was steady at 1.8% and below market forecasts.
Oasis Management disclosed it had built a 6.6% stake in Japan's Air Water (4088.JP). CATL (3750.HK) said it will launch more than 30 battery-swapping stations for electric trucks in Europe by 2035. Tencent (700.HK) is said to be in talks to divest its investments in Japan's game studios including Marvelous (7844.JP). DL E&C (375500.KS) said it had received a KRW 853B tax assessment and surcharge from Saudi Arabia but will fight the order through legal means. Tata Electronics (0N4J75-E.IN) was hit by a cyberattack that aimed to expose trade secrets from Tesla and Apple.
Digest:
South Korean stocks fall sharply from record high:
Kospi tumbled nearly 10% on Tuesday from record high as investors sold off red-hot AI and memory names on renewed concerns about market bubble (Bloomberg). Both SK Hynix (000660.KS) and Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) slumped more than 12%, one day after SK Hynix surpassed Samsung as South Korea's most valuable company and Kospi crossed 9K for first time. Tuesday's market plunge triggered a circuit breaker for 20 minutes in the afternoon trading, fourth time this year, highlighting increasing volatility of the Korean market, which nearly doubled YTD even after the pullback. Noted Kospi 200 Volatility Index rose to close to 90, near early-June peak, as leveraged ETFs tracking chipmakers and more use of leverage by retail investors have amplified price swings and made market more sensitive to negative catalysts. Recall Korean regulator admitted approvals for leveraged single-stock ETFs had been "prepared hastily" and mulling introducing stabilizing measures (Reuters, Bloomberg). Meanwhile Tuesday's drop spread across other Asian markets after tech stocks came under pressure overnight in US with SpaceX (SPCX) now off 30% from last Wednesday's peak while attention shifting to Micron (MU) earnings on Wednesday.
US issues Iran oil sale waiver, Vance says foundation in place for final deal:
US-Iran talks in Switzerland continue Tuesday after Tehran and Washington both said progress made in discussions Monday. US VP Vance said US gave Iran 60-day license to sell oil on international markets while tensions over Lebanon also eased following all-night talks (Reuters). However, as indication of underlying tensions between sides, Vance, and later President Trump, said Iran had agreed to allow nuclear inspectors back into country (WashingtonPost) but Tehran said Vance's assertion was 'false and does not reflect reality' (Bloomberg).
Nevertheless, Vance said Monday's talks had laid 'good foundation' for final deal (AP, FT). US officials also said progress in areas including establishment of 'mechanisms' to keep Strait of Hormuz open, positive steps to end Israel-Hezbollah fighting in Lebanon although precarious ceasefire holding for now (NYTimes). Iran's Hezbollah support remains contentious in Israel with official sources telling Axios government fears final Switzerland deal could lead to Iran growing its influence in Lebanon. Reuters also reported US negotiator Kushner had proposed Iran's frozen funds could be controlled by US and Qatar and used to buy US agriculture products; Tehran said no such obligation had been agreed.
Upbeat assessment from Vance led oil price decline in early Asia trade; Brent at slightly above $77/bl, WTI $73. Other assets focused more on interest rate moves as Treasury yields inched higher overnight, dollar stayed elevated, tech stocks led Asia equity markets lower early Tuesday.
Bessent held talks with Katayama as yen approached a 39-year low:
TBS, citing sources, reported Japan Finance Minister Katayama held an online meeting with US Treasury Secretary Bessent late Monday as yen approached a 39-year low vs dollar overnight. Discussions were said to include responses to historic yen weakness, including possible FX intervention.
Nikkei expanded on this topic, citing market speculation the yen bounce may have been triggered by intervention in small size or a rate check. Story highlighted the 39-year low 161.96, viewed as the key defense line among authorities. Breach would signify the weakest levels since the 1986 Plaza Accord and there is a void of technical support levels. Dilemma for authorities is that recent momentum has been driven mainly by dollar strength reflecting Fed rate hike expectations, making it difficult to blame speculators. Even then, some skepticism that additional intervention operations would have much impact.
BOJ raised rates last week and guided more moves going forward. However, cadence has emerged the main issue for markets, and most believe BOJ will only revert to a gradual semi-annual pace. Behind-the-curve concerns have increased to the point where markets view this trajectory as too slow to meaningfully bring an end to negative real rates into the horizon, thereby keeping conditions conducive for yen carry trades in place.
Speaking to reporters, Katayama later confirmed she spoke with Bessent, though only largely reaffirmed alignment (even strengthened) that bold action should be taken if necessary (Bloomberg). However, upshot was limited with no notable headline effects from Katayama's comments. Follows recent perceptions that rhetoric has toned down since the warnings given before intervention operations were conducted over Golden Week.
June flash PMIs show expansion or stability, but input costs rise again:
June S&PGlobal flash PMIs from Asia showed positive, expansive skew but input costs remain problematic while economists warned expansions still related to stock piling that could fade in coming months. Japan flash composite PMI rose to 52.5 from 51.5, first acceleration since Iran conflict began, as services maintained growth, manufacturing posted strong rise to 54.9 from 54.5 thanks to strongest output expansion in more than ten years. Input costs rose at fastest since 2022, led to increased selling prices. In addition to warning over stock-piling effect, S&P economist said middle east developments still likely to impact future supply chain and inflation trends.
Australia reading showed 'clear stabilization' according to S&P economist; composite rose to 49.8 from 48.7, close to no-change 50 level, as manufacturing returned to expansion and new job creation led services to improve operating capacity. Inflation still pronounced but softening. On downside, market uncertainty meant new orders declined again and business confidence among lowest on record.
India posted another month of expansion although at softer pace. Composite at 57.4 from 59.3 in May; services, manufacturing expanded but both at slower pace amid slower inventory build. New export orders stayed elevated while input costs rose but at slower pace.
Japan buybacks remain on record-breaking pace:
Nikkei analysis showed Japan buybacks totaled JPY16.2T ($100.3B) in Jan-May, a record for the period, up 34% y/y and already approaching the JPY17.7T for the whole of last year. The number of companies announcing buybacks was down 14% to about 620, marking the first decline in three years, though far outweighed by size. Largest announcements out of the latest earnings season in Apr-May were Toyota Tsusho (8015.JP) JPY663.6B, Hitachi (6501.JP) JPY500B and Sony (6758.JP) JPY500B. Backdrop of positive financial performance remains in place and motivated by investor scrutiny over capital efficiency. An interesting facet has been cases of buybacks implemented as a way to reduce cross shareholdings (another key corporate governance initiative) with KDDI (9433.JP) mentioned as the main example. Also, buyback activity has not been limited to companies seeing profit growth as some 35% (70) of firms launching buybacks in the latest earnings season are guiding lower FY profits, such as Fujitsu (6702.JP). However, these names boasting high cash reserves or profitability. Buybacks set to remain a tailwind with a substantial pipeline as some JPY8T out of announced tranches have yet to be executed as of mid-June. Furthermore, some projections look for the 2026 total to exceed JPY20T. While Middle East risks continue, continued activity would attest to confidence in the earnings outlook.
Notable Gainers:
+10% 002648.CH (Satellite Chemical): guides H1 net income attributable CNY6.00-7.00B vs year-ago CNY2.74B
+6.6% 4088.JP (Air Water): Oasis Management discloses 6.1% stake
+3.4% 9519.JP (Renova): reports May Biomass electricity sales 221.7M kWh, +9.6% vs planned 202.4M kWh
+3.0% 3288.HK (Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food): to seek shareholder approval for up to HK$500M buyback program
+1.6% 2454.TT (MediaTek): reportedly wins new exclusive TPU order from Google
Notable Decliners:
-20.1% 375500.KS (DL E&C Co.): Saudi tax authority imposes KRW853.31B tax assessment and surcharge
-8.3% 009540.KS (HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering Co.): reports fatality at HD Hyundai Samho 1 Dolphin Quay Berth B
-4.2% 700.HK (Tencent Holdings): reportedly in talks to divest from several investments in Japanese game studios including Marvelous
-2.3% 7844.JP (Marvelous): Tencent reportedly in talks to exit investment
-1.3% 2057.HK (ZTO Express): to acquire remaining 36.2% stake in TuXi Tech for CNY1.31B
Data:
Economic:
Japan June
Flash manufacturing PMI 54.9 vs 54.5 in prior month
Services PMI 51.8 vs 50.0 in prior month
Composite PMI 52.5 vs 51.1 in prior month
India June
Flash manufacturing PMI 54.5 vs final 55.0 in prior month
Services PMI 57.3 vs 59.8 in prior month
Composite PMI 57.4 vs 59.3 in prior month
Singapore May
CPI +1.8% y/y versus consensus +2.0% and +1.8% in prior month
Core CPI +1.4% y/y vs consensus +1.6% and +1.4% in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: (2,565.58) or (3.55%) to 69788.38
Hang Seng: (432.24) or (1.82%) to 23336.28
Shanghai Composite: (56.85) or (1.37%) to 4106.25
Shenzhen Composite: (68.05) or (2.34%) to 2833.77
ASX200: (29.10) or (0.33%) to 8787.00
KOSPI: (910.71) or (9.99%) to 8203.84
SENSEX: (534.01) or (0.69%) to 76560.06
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.25) or (0.15%) to 161.3410
$-KRW: (0.88) or (0.06%) to 1537.3400
A$-$: (0.01) or (0.87%) to 0.6946
$-INR: +0.18 or +0.20% to 94.7565
$-CNY: +0.01 or +0.11% to 6.7822
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