Jun 24 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended mixed Wednesday. South Korea bounced back from Tuesday's losses to close more than 3% higher; Taiex was down but off its trough. Nikkei and Topix also fell but also were off their lows. Greater China ended with modest gains. India is trading higher, Southeast Asia finished mixed. US futures now higher, Europe opened mixed. US dollar slightly higher, some weakness in Asia currencies but steadier than of late. Treasury yields higher at the short end, lower at the long; JGBs mixed, Australia yields at three-month low. Precious metals showing more weakness as gold closes in on $4K, industrial metals mixed. Crude oil futures fell to four-month low.
Asia equities saw a mixed day's trading as South Korea recovered some poise on reports Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) was considering a share buyback program, but TSMC (2330.TT) dragged Taiwan's Taiex lower while Tokyo Electron (8035.JP) was a notable decliner in Japan again. Brent and WTI futures dipped again to provide support for the equity bounce on reports of more successful tanker transits of the Strait of Hormuz and comments from President Trump who criticized oil companies for gouging consumers.
Regional developments were dominated by central bank news. The Bank of Japan meeting minutes signaled further rate hikes lay ahead with broad support for last week's 25 bps hike. The Bank of Korea again called for higher interest rates amid rising home prices and household debt, with leveraged investments now threatening to stoke financial imbalances further. Malaysia's central bank said it would step up support for the ringgit while RBI's governor Malhotra said the bank was in no rush to increase rates yet. Finally, the Bank of Thailand held its benchmark interest rate steady at 1.0%, as expected. Elsewhere, Australia May headline CPI fell to 4.0% from 4.2% but the trimmed mean reading rose to 3.6%. MSCI kept South Korea's market classification as 'emerging market' amid longstanding investor concerns; it also kept Indonesia's emerging market status, deferring a downgrade decision to November; and kept Vietnam's status as 'frontier'.
Alibaba (9988.HK) is to sue the US government over being placed on a list of businesses linked to the Chinese military. Zhipu (Knowledge Atlas Technology, 2513.HK) is considering a share sale to raise 'several billion dollars' which could take place as soon as next month, according to a Bloomberg report. Clobot (466100.KS) is to acquire Doosan Logistics Solutions (13PPTR-E) for KRW88.5B. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) may be considering a $59B share buyback program after agreeing to give stock options bonuses to employees. AirAsia X (5238.MK) has fallen behind on payments to suppliers and asked for deferrals on several planes as it grapples with higher fuel prices.
Digest:
PBOC's Huang shows lack of conviction for rate cut, BOK reaffirms rate hike stance, RBI's Malhotra says rate hike talk is premature:
In a Bloomberg TV interview, PBOC MPC member Huang Yiping suggested a "rate cut could still be on the table" this year, though was "not particularly sure" if that will happen. Explained that CPI inflation is still low and doesn't pose a big concern, while the economy could benefit from targeted policy support. Raised hopes that monetary policy will be leveraged to "invest in people," interpreted as a reference to support measures such as public welfare.
Latest Bloomberg consensus poll conducted earlier this month showed slight majority see rates on hold for the rest of this year, while the remainder look for a small cut. Article noted PBOC has been reluctant to cut and hasn't moved on the benchmark rate or RRR in over year at the height of the trade war with US.
Bloomberg cited BOK's Financial Stability Report for June which reaffirmed its hawkish shift. While rates have been unchanged since 2H25, "sees a need to raise the policy rate at an appropriate time, taking into account inflationary pressures, economic conditions and financial stability risks." While the financial system remains broadly stable despite heightened uncertainty at home and abroad, caution towards risks of financial imbalances and instability were cast in a hawkish light. House prices and leverage remain the main areas of concern.
In an ET interview, Bloomberg highlighted RBI Governor Malhotra's rebuttal against rate hike expectations, saying it was "premature" given geopolitical uncertainties. Article noted these were the first public comments on India's economy and policy outlook following the US-Iran MOU, and lower crude oil prices providing a major relief for India. Reaction to the truce was cautiously optimistic, acknowledging that upside risks for oil are certainly lower, though much still remains to be seen.
BOJ June Summary of Opinions hawkish, Ueda endorses policy statement during his absence:
Summary of Opinions for the June MPM affirmed broadly based hawkish rhetoric surrounding inflation risks, while growth risks were mostly seen contained. This time, there was only one notable dovish view warning of adverse demand impact from a rate hike and advocated for keeping rates on hold. This was consistent with the 7-1 vote count.
One member reiterated the consensus view that underlying inflation is currently below the 2% target and expected to be in the vicinity from H2 of FY26 to FY27. While this points to the window for policy rates to reach neutral, the policy statement acknowledged the risk of overshoot, providing the main basis for a hike. However, related comments did not offer much clarity on the future pace of normalization.
One member cited financial conditions remaining accommodative as a basis for continuing rate hikes. Another called for a tweak in guidance that previously mentioned that real rates were significantly low (which was taken out), revealing this was intentional based on the rate hike and dispersion in neutral rate estimates. Economists saw this change as notable, though implications were unclear.
Hawks reaffirmed calls to take the policy rate closer to neutral as soon as possible considering Japan's policy rate remains below the range of neutral rate estimates and to avoid behind-the-curve consequences (future accelerated hikes). Latter was the only member to suggest a specific interval of a few months between moves.
JGB purchase strategy saw some debate, consistent with the ambiguity of the announcement of no further reductions from Apr-27, while leaving it open ended. Bulk of comments used the language 'halt' or 'discontinue' and generally framed it as permanent, seeing the pace of purchases from FY27 as sufficiently low to guide significant declines in total JGB holdings due to redemptions. Only one member voiced strong opposition to a halt, arguing this was meant as an easing measure that was no longer necessary and warned of the risk of perceived fiscal debt monetization or artificial suppression of long-term yields.
In an address to a nationwide credit union conference read out by Deputy Governor Himino, Governor Ueda's summary of the latest policy move reaffirmed the key points in the policy statement made during his absence from the MPM due to medical treatment. Noted the risk of underlying inflation overshooting the 2% target reflecting widespread transmission of higher crude oil prices. Concurred underlying inflation is closing in on 2% to justify further removal of policy accommodation. Timing and pace of future adjustments will depend on Middle East effects and ongoing calibration of the certainty of realizing the main outlook scenario.
Bank of Thailand keeps benchmark interest rate unchanged:
Bank of Thailand's MPC voted unanimously to keep benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.0%, as widely expected, as uncertainty over economic growth, inflation remained elevated despite risks from Iran conflict decreasing. Bank said economy expected to grow faster than previously estimated at 2.3% for FY26 versus 1.5% projected in April, and 1.8% in FY27, but noted growth uneven. Said growth elevated and sustained in tech and AI sectors, tourism better than expected; but SMEs and households unable to adapt to higher costs, rising living costs. Inflation likely to rise by 2.8% in FY26 due to supply-side factors but will ease over time to 1.4% in FY27. Core inflation projected at 1.5% for FY26, 1.4% for FY27. Bank noted baht weakened versus US dollar largely because of dollar appreciation. Baht weakened immediately following decision to year-long low versus dollar. Bank concluded keeping rate unchanged sustained economic growth, financial system stability.
Australian underlying inflation firms, reinforcing market-implied odds of another rate hike:
Australia headline inflation declined to 4.0% in May from 4.2% in April against expectations for a rise to 4.4%. Driven largely by sharper fall in fuel prices, reflecting lower oil prices and government's cut to fuel excise in April. Trimmed mean inflation rose to 3.6% from 3.4%, higher than 3.5% forecast. Goods inflation slowed to 4.2% from 4.7%, reflecting fall in fuel prices. Domestic pricing pressures evident with services inflation climbing to 3.7% from 3.5% and non-tradeables inflation unchanged at 4.7%.
Housing the largest inflation contributor, reflecting 21% surge in electricity prices as government rebates ended. Growth in new dwelling prices quickened as builders passed on higher costs related to labor and materials. Rental inflation nudged higher amid low vacancy rates. Other services categories showed signs of stickiness with health and household services inflation pressures driven by medical and childcare services.
Data elicited negligible market reaction with policy sensitive 3Y yield little changed in data's aftermath. Futures still pricing in around 66% chance of another rate hike by year-end. While RBA acknowledged growing signs of a slowing economy, it has not ruled out further tightening if inflation does not come down. Board remains of view inflation is too high and risks are titled to upside, necessitating vigilance against an upward drift in inflation expectations as firms pass on higher costs.
Zhipu mulls large share sale in Hong Kong while ByteDance seeks its largest-ever offshore loan:
Bloomberg citing people with knowledge reported Chinese AI model maker Knowledge Atlas Technology (2513.HK), or known as Zhipu, is mulling share sale to raise several billion US dollars in Hong Kong. Added company working with financial advisers on potential placement that may happen as soon as next month, after six-month lock-up from IPO expires on 8-Jul. Noted deal of that size would eclipse $558M the company raised in Hong Kong IPO earlier this year (Bloomberg), when stocks were priced at HK$116.2, compared with HK$2,200 now, and give market value above HK$1T. Recall company also planned to apply for listing on Shanghai's STAR board (Reuters), which top Chinese securities regulator welcomed and pledged to facilitate such moves last week (Bloomberg). Zhipu recently launched GLM-5.2 model and is making it free and open to developers, which SCMP noted Washington's suspension of foreign access to Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 might help Zhipu model gain more ground.
Separately, Bloomberg reported ByteDance in early talks with banks to borrow $20B in its largest-ever offshore loan as it will boost AI investments. Came after DeepSeek has raised more than CNY50B ($7.4B) at valuation exceeding $50B in its first funding round last week (Reuters) as Chinese tech companies join US peers in intensifying capital spending in AI.
Notable Gainers:
+11.6% 196170.KS (Alteogen): CEO Jeon Tae-yeon reportedly says additional license-out negotiations with global pharmaceutical companies have entered final stages
+9.4% 466100.KS (Clobot): to acquire 100% stake in Doosan Logistics Solutions for KRW68.50B
+5.7% 9468.JP (Kadokawa): Oasis Management increases stake to 15.3% from 13.8%
+5.3% 6752.JP (Panasonic): subsidiary reportedly plans to mass-produce supercapacitors
+2.4% 293.HK (Cathay Pacific Airways): reports May traffic +13.1% y/
+0.7% 2513.HK (Knowledge Atlas Technology): reportedly weighing share sale to raise several billion US dollars in Hong Kong
+0.0% 9501.JP (Tokyo Electric Power Co. Holdings): SoftBank Group's Masayoshi Son says SoftBank Corp. is looking for a stake in Tokyo Electric Power
Notable Decliners:
-1.7% 8227.JP (SHIMAMURA): reports June Shimamura existing store sales (2.0%) y/y
Data:
Economic:
Japan
May services PPI +3.3% y/y vs consensus +2.9% and revised +3.3% in prior month
Australia
May CPI +4.0% y/y vs consensus+4.4 % and +4.2% in April
Trimmed mean CPI +3.6% y/y vs consensus +3.5% and +3.4% in April
Markets:
Nikkei: (613.41) or (0.88%) to 69174.97
Hang Seng: 75.90 or +0.33% to 23412.18
Shanghai Composite: 4.56 or +0.11% to 4110.81
Shenzhen Composite: 21.84 or +0.77% to 2855.61
ASX200: 21.40 or +0.24% to 8808.40
KOSPI: 267.18 or +3.26% to 8471.02
SENSEX: 823.48 or +1.08% to 77024.16
Currencies:
$-¥: +0.13 or +0.08% to 161.7130
$-KRW: +10.91 or +0.71% to 1544.1220
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.30%) to 0.6897
$-INR: (0.29) or (0.30%) to 94.6807
$-CNY: +0.01 or +0.13% to 6.7998
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