Jun 26 ,2026
Synopsis:
Asia equities ended with sharp declines in places Friday. South Korea's Kospi saw the worst of the losses and ended down around 6%. Japan's Nikkei 225 and Taiwan's Taiex also saw sharp falls, while the Hang Seng broke through 23K early on although ended its off its lows. Mainland China benchmarks also closed lower. Southeast Asia down, Australia the only major national benchmark to see a gain. US futures lower, Europe opened with declines. US dollar unchanged, more declines for the AUD, yen marginally stronger. Treasury yields mixed, JGB yields lower. Precious metals lower but found a trough; metal prices down.
Asia equities ended the week sharply lower with steep declines in South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong dragging the regional MSCI Asia Pac ex-Japan index down 2.9%. For the week, all major indices finished in the red with the Kospi, Taiex and Indonesia's JSX the worst performers, while India's two main benchmarks closed only slightly lower w/w although missed Friday's selloff because of a holiday. Weighing on stocks Friday, Apple said it would increase prices of MacBooks and iPads because of a shortage of memory chips, and a NY Times report suggested OpenAI is considering postponing its IPO until next year, dampening enthusiasm across Asia's technology spectrum and dragging other sectors down with them.
Oil & gas stocks also under pressure after Brent crude prices brushed off an attack on a container ship to dip back below $75/bl on data that showed tanker traffic had increased in the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours. Tokyo core inflation accelerated as price pressures from energy costs widened but remained below the BOJ target on fuel subsidies and base effects. Singapore manufacturing output grew 13% y/y in May but was below forecasts due to a sizeable contraction in its volatile pharma cluster.
Lingyi iTech (1688.HK) declined nearly 5% despite a bright start on its Hong Kong debut after raising KH$8.15B in net proceeds. Renesas Electronics (6723.JP) said it expects its revenue to double by 2030 to more than $20B as part of its Aspiration plan. SoftBank (9984.JP) stock slid sharply on reports OpenAI is considering shifting its IPO to next year. Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) is to invest more than $648B over next ten years, the highest ever announced by a South Korea company. DeepSeek (+DEEPSEEK ) says it wants to double size of all departments following its successful fund raising round. Adani Group's airports unit (0MNHQS-E) is to invest more than $2B to develop six city hubs in India.
Digest:
AI sentiment turns cautious amid reports of OpenAI IPO delay, memory cost pressures:
Volatile session for AI stocks with Kospi selloff triggering trading halt amid steep losses in SK Hynix (000660.KS) and Samsung Electronics (005930.KS). MU's blowout results and guidance credited for Thursday's AI rally, with its 16 SCAs establishing volume commitments and price floors amid an extended supply shortfall. Dynamic brought more attention to memory input cost pressures facing technology hardware firms with AAPL and MSFT announcing price hikes, raising questions about demand sustainability and macro implications (higher inflation).
SoftBank (9984.JP) Friday's other notable decliner after NY Times sources said OpenAI weighing delaying IPO to 2027. Recent market volatility and post-IPO selloff in SPCX have led OpenAI's executives to rethink aggressive IPO timetable amid concern about lack of retail enthusiasm. OpenAI advisers outlined option of waiting to achieve $1T valuation (vs most recent valuation of $730B) before a 2027 IPO or target lower valuation for quicker listing. CEO Altman reportedly said a valuation below $1T would be a nonstarter.
Piece also highlighted how OpenAI currently engaged in heavy spending on marketing and recruiting, establishing new sources of revenue and dealing with Anthropic competitive pressures. Separately Bloomberg sources said Trump administration requested OpenAI stagger upcoming model releases amid security concerns. Company was told to release GPT-5.6 in limited form to 20 partners. Comes after White House ordered Anthropic to restrict foreign access to Mythos 5 and Fable 5 amid national security concerns.
In other news, South Korean media reported Samsung and SK Hynix will on Monday announce new investment commitments in South Korea (Reuters). Samsung to unveil investment plan totaling KRW1T ($647B) with KRW300B earmarked for chip factories. SK Hynix executives will also participate in Monday's briefing hosted by President Lee, which will reveal details about mega projects government is targeting.
Tokyo CPI in line, BOJ concerns more forward-looking:
Tokyo core CPI rose 1.6% y/y in June, matching expectations. Follows 1.3% in the previous month, marking a three-month high. Ex-fresh food & energy inflation also picked up to 1.9% vs consensus 1.8% from 1.6%. Energy drags eased marginally mostly reflecting smaller declines in gasoline, though remaining suppressed by subsidies. Other developments were mixed. Main contribution was a sudden halt in lower water utilities that added 0.23 ppt to the headline, apparently reflecting a roll-off in Tokyo government waivers as part of its own cost-of-living relief measures. Increases in heavily weighted non-fresh food continued to moderate. Rice prices fell for the second straight month, at a faster pace, reflecting the seventh straight sequential decline (supply-demand concerns eased by mobilization of government reserves) and unfavorable base effects (peaked in Apr-May though set to remain considerable through year-end). Comparable drags also came from slower growth in mobile phone fees and accommodation. For clearer monetary policy implications, BOJ calculations showed nationwide core CPI excluding institutional factors was up 2.7% in May and has tracked above 2% since Nov-24. BOJ board members have expressed more concerns about upside risks to the outlook with measures of inflation expectations broadly mounting.
China AI hardware stocks face earnings test to justify sharp gains:
Market divergence in Chinese stocks becoming more evident in Q2 with chip-heavy Shanghai STAR 50 Index having surged more than 60%, nearly on par with Kospi, while Hang Seng Tech has fallen more than 8% as internet stocks lost favor amid sluggish consumer spending. Bloomberg noted stellar gains in China's hardware tech stocks due to surge in capital spending in AI infrastructure by hyperscalers, Beijing's push for high-tech self-sufficiency and rotation from consumer and retail stocks. Meanwhile upcoming earnings season will be scrutinized to justify whether further leg-up is warranted as concerns build up with surging prices and bullish sentiment running ahead of themselves. Noted analysts have raised earnings estimates for STAR 50 by more than 4% in Q2, dwarfed by index's rise, leaving it trading at 69X forward earnings, a record high. Still sellside analysts, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, remain bullish in "hard-core" tech names listed on mainland bourses. Article also mentioned regulatory tailwind as CSRC Chairman Wu Qing pledged to ease listing standards for AI developers and other advanced technology firms for STAR board (link, Bloomberg), seen as strong support from Beijing.
JGB market still left wanting for stable buyers amid BOJ balance sheet runoff:
Nikkei discussed ongoing concerns about JGB supply-demand conditions amid BOJ's balance sheet normalization, with domestic banks remaining reluctant to build up positions discouraged by rising long-term yields. Banks and other deposit-taking institutions held JPY156T ($964B) in JGBs and short-term bills in Q1, equivalent to 13.6% of the total outstanding. The share has yet to rise meaningfully since falling below 12% in Jun-23, well off the peak of just over 40% in Mar-12. Rising yields and uncertainty over BOJ's terminal rate cited as key factors, also encouraging banks to shorten duration. Investment capacity also shrinking as the deposit-loan gap fell to its lowest in around five years. Stricter regulatory environment posing further limitations, citing JCER estimates banks can absorb roughly JPY120T in JGBs under current rules, down some JPY80T from Mar-13 just before the start of the QQE era. Foreign investors are increasing purchases, though activity so far confirming their reputation as short-term investors and cannot be relied upon as a stable buyer. Latest data and BOJ's JGB purchase strategy update underscored the increasing void. BOJ's total holdings were JPY485T at March-end, down 17% from the peak in late-2023. Decision to end purchase reductions from Apr-27 would still lead holdings down to JPY350-370T by Mar-30.
Notable Gainers:
+8.5% 3998.HK (Bosideng International Holdings): reports FY results; net income attributable CNY3.99B vs FactSet CNY3.79B
+6.3% 590.HK (Luk Fook Holdings (International)): reports FY results; net income attributable HK$2.05B vs FactSet HK$1.75B
+2.5% 7203.JP (Toyota Motor): reportedly divests 70.4M MS&AD Insurance shares (~4.8% stake) for ~¥290.0B
Notable Decliners:
-12.5% 9984.JP (SoftBank Group): OpenAI reportedly leaning toward holding off IPO until next year
-11.7% 6110.HK (Topsports International Holdings): guides low-teens Q1 sales decline y/y
-2.3% 992.HK (Lenovo Group): completes $2B convertible bond issuance, cancels $225M of 2029 convertible bonds
-1.6% 4716.JP (Oracle Corp Japan): reports FY results; operating income ¥89.80B vs FactSet ¥92.43B
-0.9% 6723.JP (Renesas Electronics): reportedly expects 2030 revenue to be roughly double that of 2025
-0.7% 7201.JP (Nissan Motor): Stellantis and Nissan reportedly in talks to acquire assets from Marelli
Data:
Economic:
Japan June
Tokyo core CPI +1.6% y/y vs consensus +1.6% and +1.3% in prior month
CPI excl. fresh food & energy +1.9% y/y vs consensus +1.8% and +1.6% in prior month
Overall CPI +1.7% y/y vs consensus +1.7% and +1.4% in prior month
Singapore May
Manufacturing production y/y +13% versus +16.5% in prior month
Markets:
Nikkei: (3,005.46) or (4.15%) to 69360.88
Hang Seng: (405.05) or (1.76%) to 22671.86
Shanghai Composite: (93.02) or (2.26%) to 4027.27
Shenzhen Composite: (90.08) or (3.13%) to 2786.04
ASX200: 15.50 or +0.18% to 8764.20
KOSPI: (519.09) or (5.81%) to 8411.21
SENSEX: Closed
Currencies:
$-¥: (0.25) or (0.15%) to 161.5500
$-KRW: (7.96) or (0.52%) to 1536.9300
A$-$: (0.00) or (0.23%) to 0.6894
$-INR: (0.15) or (0.16%) to 94.4514
$-CNY: +0.01 or +0.12% to 6.8009
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