Jul 02 ,2026
Synopsis:
European indices ended in positive territory. In central banks developments, policymakers gathered in Sintra this week showing no consensus on ECB's path forward following Jun's soft inflation reading. Chief Economist Lane cautioned inflationary forces from Iran war still working through the economy. However, other Governing Council members encouraged by falling oil prices, seeing little evidence of broader second-round effects. Stournaras called inflation print a "big downside surprise," suggesting the ECB may not need to follow June's rate hike with another move. Analysts also split on what comes next
In geopolitics, EU's latest bid to reset trade and economic relationship with China already floundering. Despite renewed push for a tougher stance, EU leaders lack political will to implement meaningful changes or risk direct confrontation with Beijing. Member states recognize severity of China's dominant position and €360B trade deficit but remain divided on concrete actions.Some advocate immediate new instruments to counter subsidies and overcapacity, while others prefer continued dialogue or focus on mitigating the consequences of deep supply-chain dependencies. In Germany, the government unveiled wide-ranging reform package aimed at boosting competitiveness. The 34-point plan folds together last week's pension reform, previously agreed healthcare changes, a bureaucratic "detox" to cut red tape, and ~ €10B in tax relief for lower-income households-partly funded by higher rates on earners above €280,000 annually. Additional measures include incentives for Sunday and holiday work, a requirement for sick-leave certificates from the first day of illness rather than the fourth, and simplified data-protection rules. On a light macro-front, Swiss inflation eased in June
In M&A news, Viaplay Group (VPLAY.B.SS) sold its Dutch operations whilst - in the UK - Genel Energy (GENL.LN) announces a $4.74/sh in cash offer for Capricorn Energy (CNE.LN); furthermore, Bayer AG (BAYN.GR) consolidated its US glyphosate business into a distinct entity operating as Ruveon and ams-OSRAM (AMS.SW closed the sale of its sensor business to Infineon (IFX.GR) for €570M
On a light reporting front, Sodexo (SW.FP) released Q3 revenue numbers and raised FY guidance, with Currys (CURY.LN) and Bang & Olufsen (BO.DC) posted their most recent numbers
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers: Health Care +3.33%, Food & Beverage +2.21%, Financial Svcs +2.08%, Persnl & HHold Goods +2.04%, Autos & Parts +1.93%, Chemicals +1.91%, Utilities +1.71%, Banks +1.68%, Real Estate +1.62%, Oil & Gas +1.46%, Ind Goods & Svcs +1.45%
Underperformers: Technology (2.13%), Telecom +0.47%, Media +0.99%, Basic Resources +0.99%, Insurance +1.16%, Travel & Leisure +1.29%, Construct & Mtls +1.34%, Retail +1.37%
Macro:
Merz unveils sweeping reform push for Germany: Tax cuts, pension overhaul and new sick leave rules (AP)
German workers banned from taking sick leave without a medical note in tough reforms (Independent)
France's state pension is pushing the Right towards civil war (Telegraph)
Burnham meets trade union leaders ahead of expected premiership (BBC)
Why Meloni has hit back hard against Trump and his 'made up' photo claim (Guardian)
Spain immigration amnesty draws 1.2M applicants (FT)
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+19.8% CNE.LN (Capricorn Energy £3.45, +0.57) -- acquisition
+13.4% AMS.SW (ams-OSRAM CHF18.50, +2.18)
+11.3% ALZCUR.SS (AlzeCure Pharma SEK6.90, +0.70) -- final rights issue outcome
+8.9% BAYN.GR (Bayer AG €53.36, +4.36) -- to consolidate US glyphosate business into distinct entity operating as Ruveon; Deutsche Bank upgrade
+8.8% ABVX.FP (Abivax €127.80, +10.30) -- ADRs placement
+8.6% DUST.SS (Dustin Group SEK1.87, +0.15) -- follow-through
+8.3% LTHM.LN (James Latham £11.05, +0.85) -- earnings
+7.7% CMCX.LN (CMC Markets £7.00, +0.50)
+7.6% VICO.SS (Vicore Pharma Holding SEK13.00, +0.92) -- ADS trading on Nasdaq to commence 2-Jul
+7.4% SW.FP (Sodexo €53.50, +3.68) -- sales
+6.9% GENL.LN (Genel Energy £0.55, +0.04) -- Capricorn acquisition
+6.0% CARL.B.DC (Carlsberg DKK925.20, +52.00) -- Carlsberg confidentially files draft papers for IPO of India unit to raise as much as $700M (DKK4.59B) - Bloomberg
+6.0% VOLCAR.B.SS (Volvo Car SEK21.00, +1.18) -- sales
+4.9% MSON.B.SS (Midsona SEK15.10, +0.70)
+4.8% SKF.B.SS (SKF SEK260.80, +12.00) -- JV agreement
+4.0% TLGO.SM (Talgo €2.72, +0.11) -- agreement
+3.4% CON.GR (Continental €74.82, +2.48) -- pre- close call
+3.2% EAH.LN (Eco Animal Health Group £0.96, +0.03) -- vaccine launch
+2.8% ALDVI.FP (Advicenne €1.24, +0.03) -- unlimited renewal of MA for Sibnayal in UK
+2.7% ENRO.SS (Eniro Group SEK27.10, +0.70) -- acquisition
+2.5% VPLAY.A.SS (Viaplay Group SEK2.42, +0.06) -- divestment
+2.1% ALO.FP (Alstom €15.45, +0.32) -- order win
Notable Decliners
-39.5% NEXT.NO (Next Biometrics Group NOK0.33, -0.22) -- strategic review concludes the legacy fingerprint business no longer the primary strategic focus and will seek potential sale of the business
-18.2% LUS1.GR (Lang & Schwarz €22.40, -5.00) -- adjustment of FY26 forecast due to Trade Republic Bank new trading technology
-11.4% AOM.LN (Activeops £2.33, -0.30) -- earnings
-5.8% BCG.LN (Baltic Classifieds Group £1.89, -0.12) -- earnings
-0.4% EKI.FP (Ekinops €2.57, -0.01) -- agreement
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:Atrium Ljungberg (ATRLJ.B.SS)
France: Pluxee (PLX.FP)
Other: Íslandsbanki (ISB.IR)
Sales: Avanza Bank Holding (AZA.SS), Nordnet (SAVE.SS), flatexDEGIRO (FTK.GR)
Data:
Economics:
Italy May Unemployment Rate 5.0% vs consensus 5.1% and prior 5.1%
Switzerland Jun CPI +0.5% y/y vs consensus +0.5% and prior +0.6%
Spain Jun Unemployment Change (28.7K) vs consensus (40.8K) and prior (36.3K)
Markets:
WTI Crude (Aug 26): ($0.83) or (1.21%) to $67.75
€-$ +0.0072 or +0.63% to 1.1448
£-$ +0.0099 or +0.75% to 1.3373
€-£ (0.0008) to 0.8562
S&P 500 +0.12%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +7.26%
DAX: +4.45%
CAC: +3.99%
MIB: +16.65%
Stoxx 600: +9.48%
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