Sep 03 ,2026
Synopsis:
European indices have closed in positive territory, except for Norway. Yield stabilization seems to be the big story as of late. Equity markets softening as oil prices rise again. September seasonality also unsupportive. Easing in market rates has helped AI trade and other pockets of growth trade. Attention also on yen amid speculation over possible FX intervention after a spike on Wednesday, though no confirmation from authorities. Positive AI compute/capex demand takeaways from latest batch of US reports, though price action mixed. AI model updates continue to get a lot of attention in the press
Few developments from the Middle East following recent escalation. President Trump reportedly having discussions about whether to declare Iran war over (and said to favor the idea) and US has talked up 17-18M bpd of oil recently exiting SoH. Market almost fully priced for September ECB rate hike and expectations for quicker rate increase building. Risk sentiment also boosted by softer ADP private payrolls and centrist camp comments from Fed's Williams yesterday. Probability of a September Fed rate hike has slipped to near 61% from approx. 68% earlier in the week
On the macro-front, final services and composite PMIs with Eurozone reading slightly lower versus flash and UK services update softer. Swiss inflation surprises on the upside on headline and core measure. Eurozone PPI also on the agenda. More discussions over European gas storage levels after prices hit highest level in more than three years. UK press focuses on fiscal challenges after recent backup in yields. Investors and economists have called on credible UK spending cuts to reduce risk of further market turmoil. UK watchdog FCA has flagged liquidity risks in real estate funds
In corporate news, Voltalia (VLTSA.FP) reported H1 earnings and announced it will suspend 2027 net result target and 2028 dividend payment. Also in France, SOITEC (SOI.FP) updated its guidance for 2027 due to accelerating demand for Photonics-SOI, greater visibility on near-term customer requirements, and group's ability to adjust capacity to meet that demand. Elsewhere, Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS) released Q1 earnings numbers and confirmed its financial target. In M&A news, bp (BP.LN) and Shell (SHEL.LN) have agreed terms for Shell to acquire a 50% stake in the Tupinambá exploration block in Santos Basin, offshore Brazil, in addition to a 30% stake in five leases containing the Conifer exploration prospect in the deepwater Gulf of America Paleogene. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that Elliott Investment Management acquired a stake in Deutsche Telekom (DTE.GR) to oppose a full combination with T-Mobile US (TMUS)
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers: Media +2.51%, Autos & Parts +1.69%, Financial Svcs +1.49%, Banks +1.41%, Insurance +1.29%, Construct & Mtls +1.25%, Real Estate +1.22%, Basic Resources +1.17%, Retail +0.59%, Telecom +0.51%
Underperformers: Persnl & HHold Goods (1.37%), Food & Beverage (0.66%), Utilities (0.06%), Oil & Gas +0.04%, Health Care +0.30%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.32%, Travel & Leisure +0.36%, Technology +0.38%, Chemicals +0.42%
Macro:
Is Germany's economic slump finally over? (dw)
Putin cites chance of peace deal, Ukraine sees 'new dynamic' (Reuters)
Russia to close Goethe-Institut centres as Germany tensions escalate (Al Jazeera)
Andy Burnham praises UK-EU ties in meeting with Emmanuel Macron (BBC)
Greens leader Zack Polanski to stand in seat vacated by Keir Starmer (FT)
Europe's Gas Gamble Risks Higher Prices in Global Supply Fight (BBG)
Teresa Ribera floats oil tax, joint debt or bigger budget to climate-proof Europe (Politico)
Spain's PM says he received no advance warnings of Ceuta influx as he defends handling of crisis (CNN)
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+56.8% GEMD.LN (Gem Diamonds £0.10, +0.04) -- H1 earnings
+16.4% HCM.LN (Hutchmed £2.09, +0.30) -- signs licensing agreement with GSK for KRAS-EGFR-antibody conjugate cancer therapy
+12.2% HFG.LN (Hilton Food Group £7.08, +0.77) -- H1 earnings; Peel Hunt upgrade
+10.3% SOI.FP (SOITEC €123.50, +11.50) -- issues guidance; Oddo upgrade
+9.2% FDEV.LN (Frontier Developments £4.46, +0.38) -- announces Disney agreement for a new game
+6.8% CLAS.B.SS (Clas Ohlson SEK474.60, +30.40) -- Q1 earnings
+6.1% BIOA.B.SS (BioArctic SEK346.20, +20.00) -- China's NMPA approves the group's Leqembi SC-AI formulation for initiation treatment
+5.6% WPP.LN (WPP Group £3.82, +0.20)
+5.5% SVIK.SS (Studsvik SEK221.50, +11.50) -- company GE Vernova Hitachi and Samsung C&T commit to advancing 1.2 GW nuclear power project in Sweden
+4.8% NOTE.SS (NOTE SEK171.80, +7.90) -- contract
+4.6% GIMB.BB (Gimv €44.80, +1.95) -- H1 earnings
+4.4% PUB.FP (Publicis Groupe €103.75, +4.37) -- PepsiCo shifting global media account to Publicis Groupe from Omnicon - AdAge
+4.4% SESG.FP (SES €4.85, +0.21)
+4.1% BELA.GA (Jumbo €26.62, +1.06) -- Aug sales; announces €1.00/share extra divi
+3.6% VOW3.GR (Volkswagen €76.36, +2.66) -- reviews portfolio of 750 subsidiaries for potential asset sales - WirtschaftsWoche
+3.5% JET2.LN (Jet2 £15.08, +0.51) -- AGM statement
+2.8% ACX.SM (Acerinox €18.11, +0.50)
+2.4% MNG.LN (M&G Plc £3.51, +0.08) -- H1 eanrings
+2.4% VOD.LN (Vodafone Group £1.22, +0.03) -- VodafoneThree to launch Vodafone TV in October
+2.3% IQE.LN (IQE £0.45, +0.01) -- announces purchase agreement with Quintessent as Quantum Dot Laser technology moves to customer sampling
+2.1% ELMRA.NO (Elmera Group NOK46.60, +0.95) -- Fortum receives clearance of regulatory approvals for recommended voluntary cash tender offer for company
+1.8% P911.GR (Porsche €44.80, +0.78) -- to reduce the number of sales regions from five to four effective 1-Oct; announces related management changes
+1.2% OCI.NA (OCI NV €4.10, +0.05) -- confirms receipt of petition filed by Value8 N.V. with Enterprise Chamber of the Amsterdam Court of Appeal; believes petition is without merit
+1.2% KALMAR.FH (Kalmar €39.32, +0.46) -- plans to simplify its operating model to accelerate growth, enhance customer focus, and optimize operational efficienc
+0.9% EGTX.SS (Egetis Therapeutics SEK7.84, +0.07)
+0.8% RSL2.GR (R. Stahl €12.60, +0.10)
+0.5% TGS.NO (TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co. NOK135.70, +0.70)
+0.2% ZAG.AV (Zumtobel Group €4.10, +0.01) -- Q1 earnings
Notable Decliners
-17.7% VLTSA.FP (Voltalia €5.35, -1.15) -- H1 earnings; suspends 2027 net result target and 2028 dividend payment
-15.8% FUM.LN (Futura Medical £0.00, -0.00) -- announces fundraise and launch of FSP and M&A process
-8.3% CRST.LN (Crest Nicholson Holdings £0.56, -0.05) -- trading update
-7.3% ENQ.LN (EnQuest £0.25, -0.02) -- H1 earnings; tightens FY production guidance
-7.3% KCC.NO (Klaveness Combination Carriers NOK97.50, -7.70) -- holder Rederiaksjeselskapet Torvald Klaveness places 6.5M shares at NOK94.70/share
-3.1% AUSS.NO (Austevoll Seafood NOK84.50, -2.70)
-3.0% SAFE.LN (Safestore Holdings £5.58, -0.18) -- Q3 trading update
-2.7% WOSG.LN (Watches of Switzerland Group £6.64, -0.19) -- AGM trading update
-2.5% RKH.LN (Rockhopper Exploration £0.78, -0.02)
-2.2% R3NK.GR (Renk Group €43.58, -1.00) -- Putin floats constructive talks
-1.9% RHM.GR (Rheinmetall €1,070.20, -20.20) -- Putin floats constructive talks
-1.8% MC.FP (LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton €431.05, -7.95)
-1.4% TRMED.NO (Thor Medical NOK5.47, -0.08) -- announces private placement and retail offering
-1.1% TGYM.IM (Technogym €12.77, -0.14) -- appoints new CFO
-0.9% CAM.LN (Camellia £57.50, -0.50) -- H1 earnings
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Benelux: Belysse Group (BELYS.BB)
Nordics: Sectra (SECT.B.SS)
Southern Europe: LU-VE (LUVE.IM)
CMD/Events: Hindustan Unilever (500696.IN/ULVR.LN), Ashtead Technology Holdings (AT.LN) live virtual investor presentation via the BRR Engage Investor platform at 10:30BST
Macro-releases expected tomorrow:
Germany Jul factory orders, Aug construction PMI, Italy Jul retail sales, Eurozone Jul retail sales, UK Aug construction PMI, Austria Q2 final GDP, Ireland Q2 final GDP
Data:
Economics:
Aug Services PMI
Sweden 55.8 vs consensus 54.4 and prior revised 54.3 from 54.2
Spain 57.8 vs consensus 59.0 and prior 58.3
Italy 55.2 vs consensus 53.6 and prior 52.5
France 48.0 vs preliminary 48.4
Germany 49.7 vs preliminary 48.5
Eurozone 51.6 vs preliminary 51.7
UK 52.5 vs preliminary 52.8
Q2 GDP
Austria +0.4% y/y vs preliminary +0.8%
Switzerland +1.9% q/q vs preliminary +1.5% and prior revised +0.6% from +0.7%
Switzerland Aug CPI +0.8% y/y vs consensus +0.5% and prior +0.4%
Eurozone Jul PPI +5.8% y/y vs consensus +4.7% and prior +4.6%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Oct 26): +$1.32 or +1.45% to $92.33
€-$ +0.0031 or +0.27% to 1.1621
£-$ +0.0047 or +0.35% to 1.3532
€-£ (0.0003) to 0.8590
S&P 500 +0.97%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +9.06%
DAX: +6.18%
CAC: +1.68%
MIB: +16.24%
Stoxx 600: +9.61%
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