Sep 04 ,2026
Synopsis:
European equity markets saw mixed performances Friday. DAX/SXAP among outperformers on strength in German car names (VW restructuring plan a focal point). EU Tech sector best performer, helped by the broader AI investment theme and strong individual stock momentum.
US equities mostly lower in Friday morning trading. Follows stocks finishing higher on Thursday. Dollar index up 0.2%, off best levels. Gold off 1%. Silver down 1.3%. WTI crude marginally lower.
European markets softer at the end of the week despite stabilizing in yields. Focus on Fed Waller's remarks on Thursday, signaling support for keeping rates on hold in September. However, strong August jobs report weighing on equities. August nonfarm payrolls increased 162K m/m vs +55K consensus and July's upwardly revised +21K. Europe remains sensitive to energy dynamics, but there are thoughts that the ECB might be reluctant to tighten too aggressively with underlying demand fragile. Economists expect September to conclude short rate hike cycle. BoE Governor Bailey said it exercises choice over how fast to bring inflation back to target, but hawkish BoE official Pill said it risks falling behind the curve.
On macro data front, Eurozone retail sales missed. Germany factory orders surprised on the upside due to jump in large orders. German construction PMI unexpectedly jumped to an eight-month high, bucking wider euro area trend. UK update remained soft. BoE monthly decision maker panel survey saw easing in inflation expectations and some emerging signs of stabilization on the labor market, albeit at weak levels. Elsewhere, industry data saw best August UK car sales since 2018 on EV demand.
On the corporate front, VW's (VOW3.GR) Supervisory Board unanimously approved the Executive Board's Future Plan 2030, giving management a clear mandate to accelerate the group's transformation. Importantly, the plan has secured support from employee representatives, IG Metall as well as State of Lower Saxony, which analysts note removes a key/non-negligible governance hurdle. Analysts said execution is key. On the downside today, shares of Experian (EXPN.LN) slid following tweet from Director of US Federal Housing, Bill Pulte, accusing the companies of overcharging Americans while also indicating consideration of alternative solution. Elsewhere, Ferrexpo (FXPO.LN) raised ~$100M through a combination of a placing and a subscription, whilst Alstom (ALO.FP) confirmed winning a landmark C$4.7B contract to renew VIA Rail Canada's long-distance fleet; in the Nordics, Sectra (SECT.B.SS) posted earnings.
The week ahead sees ECB interest rate decision, OPEC+ meeting, OPEC/IEA monthly oil market reports, Germany Jul industrial production, UK Jul industrial/manufacturing production, trade balance, Switzerland Aug unemployment rate as well as earnings/updates from Ashmore Group (ASHM.LN), Associated British Foods (ABF.LN), Berkeley Group Holdings (BKG.LN), Inditex (ITX.SM), Playtech (PTEC.LN) and Standard Life (SDLF.LN).
Markets in US and Canada closed on Mon for Labor Day holiday. Of note, on Sun, in Germany there's the Saxony-Anhalt state election. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is comfortably ahead in the opinion polls and the result could see them solely led a state government for the first time. Three smaller parties are fighting to make it into parliament (must clear a 5% threshold to enter) and their success or failure could determine whether the AfD can govern alone following one of Germany's most consequential state elections.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Technology +1.26%, Autos & Parts +1.10%, Retail +1.09%, Travel & Leisure +0.94%, Construct & Mtls +0.83%, Utilities +0.64%, Basic Resources +0.30%, Ind Goods & Svcs +0.28%, Banks +0.26%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.15%, Food & Beverage +0.12%
Underperformers:
Media (1.44%), `(1.16%), Chemicals (0.66%), Oil & Gas (0.51%), Financial Svcs (0.39%), Insurance (0.18%), Real Estate +0.04%, Telecom +0.09%
Macro:
Life under the AfD: Germany prepares for a political earthquake (Times)
Friedrich Merz will lose Sunday's regional election - whatever the result (POLITICO)
Italy's deputy PM says banks, energy firms should help with public finances (Reuters)
BoE monthly survey of CFOs showed that inflation expectations eased in August (link)
Andrew Bailey warns of populist threat to central bank independence (FT)
Russia hits Ukraine's security service headquarters in Kyiv, Zelenskiy says (Reuters)
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+11.2% ATS.AV (AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik €165.40, +16.60) -- Oddo upgrade
+6.6% VOW3.GR (Volkswagen €81.42, +5.06) -- Supervisory board approves comprehensive future plan for the Volkswagen Group
+4.2% VIL.FP (Viel & Cie €19.74, +0.80) -- H1 earnings
+4.0% PAH3.GR (Porsche Automobil Holding SE €29.11, +1.11) -- Volkswagen sympathy
+3.8% GTT.FP (Gaztransport & Technigaz €215.80, +7.80) -- Berenberg upgrade; initiated overweight at Barclays
+2.9% BWLPG.NO (BW LPG NOK233.40, +6.60) -- Sparebank 1 Markets upgrade
+2.7% NOTE.SS (NOTE SEK176.40, +4.60) -- SEB downgrade
+2.4% VOD.LN (Vodafone Group £1.25, +0.03) -- Goldman Sachs upgrade
+2.3% NESTE.FH (Neste €31.96, +0.73) -- Goldman Sachs upgrade
+2.3% AC.FP (Accor €46.83, +1.06) -- Morgan Stanley upgrade
+2.2% BELYS.BB (Belysse Group €0.46, +0.01) -- H1 earnings
+1.8% ALO.FP (Alstom €16.46, +0.29) -- contract
+1.7% BMW.GR (Bayerische Motoren Werke €62.84, +1.08) -- Volkswagen sympathy
+1.4% RNO.FP (Renault €29.24, +0.39) -- Volkswagen sympathy
Notable Decliners
-10.8% TRMED.NO (Thor Medical NOK4.88, -0.59) -- announces private placement and retail offering
-6.0% VIV.FP (Vivendi €1.50, -0.10) -- Kepler Cheuvreux downgrade; H1 earnings
-5.1% CLAS.B.SS (Clas Ohlson SEK450.20, -24.40) -- Nordea downgrade
-4.4% EXPN.LN (Experian £28.13, -1.30) -- tweet by Director of US Federal Housing Bill Pulte cited
-3.0% VCP.LN (Victoria £0.56, -0.02) -- AGM statement
-1.4% KNIN.SW (Kuehne & Nagel CHF212.00, -2.90) -- Morgan Stanley downgrade
-1.3% TEL.NO (Telenor NOK133.00, -1.80) -- Goldman Sachs downgrade
-1.2% YAR.NO (Yara International NOK457.40, -5.40) -- initiated underweight at Barclays
EU companies reporting Monday:
Earnings:
DACHs: Burkhalter Holding (BRKN.SW)
Southern Europe: Aeroporto Guglielmo Marconi di Bologna (ADB.IM), Valsoia (VLS.IM)
UK: Standard Life (SDLF.LN), Ashmore Group (ASHM.LN), Gamma Communications (GAMA.LN), IQE (IQE.LN), Concurrent Technologies (CNC.LN), Team Internet Group (TIG.LN)
Trading Update:
UK: Kainos Group (KNOS.LN)
Data:
Economics:
Germany
Jul Factory Orders +2.5% m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior revised +3.7% from +3.1%
Aug Construction PMI 48.7 vs consensus 42.0 and prior 42.1
UK Aug Construction PMI 44.3 vs consensus 45.5 and prior 44.7
UK Aug new car registrations +13.7% to 94,236 units -- SMMT
Italy Jul Retail Sales +0.8% y/y vs consensus +3.0% and prior +3.1%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Oct 26): ($0.71) or (0.78%) to $90.59
€-$ (0.0004) or (0.03%) to 1.1622
£-$ (0.0006) or (0.04%) to 1.3520
€-£ (0.0002) to 0.8594
S&P 500 (0.50%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +9.06%
DAX: +6.35%
CAC: +1.59%
MIB: +15.92%
Stoxx 600: +9.74%
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