Sep 22 ,2026
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open higher, while Asian equities advancing Tuesday. South Korea and Taiwan outperforming while Greater China markets logging smaller gains Japan remains closed for public holiday.
AI trade momentum continues with semis and memory building on recent strength. Initial concerns about frontier labs slowing pace of AI model development due to safety risks giving way to agentic AI hype. Positive sentiment surrounding META's Muse also reinforced outlook for semi demand, underpinned by agentic AI proliferation and reasoning > inference shift. US and China completed second day of talks in New York with discussions focused on AI, investment and trade. Senior officials were not present and there was no comment on status of trade truce. Length any trade truce extension, flow of rare earths, Chinese purchase commitments and extent of tariff relief on non-sensitive goods expected to be among topics of discussion at Trump-Xi summit.
Oil retreat helping sentiment amid favorable Middle East supply headlines. Pickup in Saudi Arabia crude volumes via Persian Gulf, highest Hormuz energy flows in six months (according to US), and US-Iran diplomatic hopes at UN among the talking points this week. Oil pullback helping to put some downward pressure on rates following recent backup driven in part by hawkish Fed messaging.
Also on today's agenda, UN General Assembly General Debate gets underway. EU General Affairs Council meets whilst Norway's minister of defence Sandvik will participate/give a keynote address at the Nordic Defence and Security Conf (through Wed). EU's Tzitzikostas participates in the international trade fair for transport technology InnoTrans 2026. Amongst events are; Atlantic Council's Nuclear Energy Policy Summit (through Wed), Bloomberg Green NY (through Wed). Chatham House event What to learn from Russia's State Duma elections, Dagens industri and Privata Affärer Investor Day, WindEnergy Hamburg 2026 trade fair (through Fri) and FintechNation 26 - FinTech & Payments Assn of Ireland.
In central banks, Estonia central bank's Deputy Governors Kaasik and Randveer present its latest economic forecast at 10:00CET (livestream). Bundesbank's Nagel speech at 10:30CET at farewell event for Burkhard Balz and at ~21:30CET at the annual dinner of the Society of Professional Economists. BOE's Mills speech at 9:35BST at City and Financial Global Implementing the UK Wholesale Financial Markets Digital Strategy Summit. National banks of Ukraine and Poland host Annual Research Conf sees Austria central bank's Kocher speech at 10:10, Netherlands central bank's Sleijpen panellist at 11:00, ECB's Lagarde pre-recorded video address at 13:00, Lithuania central bank's Šimkus, Bulgaria central bank's Lingorski and Croatia central bank's Faulend panelists at 13:10. Hungary central bank interest rate decision at 14:00CET is expected to see no change to the 5.5% benchmark interest rate. ECB's Buch speech at 16:10CET at annual Foreign Bankers Association conf.
European macro data releases out today include Spain Jul trade balance, Eurozone Sep flash consumer confidence, UK Sep industrial trends orders - CBI, Aug public sector borrowing requirement, Ireland Aug PPI, Finland Aug unemployment rate
In earnings news, Bureau Veritas (BVI.FP) raised its 2027-28 revenue CAGR guidance to double digits at its Capital Markets Day, supported by strong margin gains and portfolio rotation, while VusionGroup (VU.FP) posted sharply higher H1 profit and confirmed its 2026 growth and margin targets. Also in France, ABC arbitrage (ABCA.FP) and Abivax (ABVX.FP) reported H1 earnings, with Abivax posting a wider H1 loss but securing cash runway into Q4 2029 alongside a CMO transition. In Benelux, CTP N.V. (CTPNV.NA) highlighted record leasing activity and a path to €1B annualised rental income by 2027 at its CMD and Nyxoah (NYXH.BB) reaffirmed FY26 guidance despite a CFO transition. Elsewhere, Newron Pharmaceuticals (NWRN.SW) reported a wider H1 net loss but flagged continued progress in its pivotal Evenamide Phase 3 program, and Serabi Gold (SRB.LN) reported higher Q2 revenue and gold production/sales, though EBITDA losses widened year-on-year.
Politics/Macro/World News
EU reaches 'substantial agreement' on Philippines trade deal - Politico
Trump set to press Zelenskyy at UN to agree energy ceasefire with Russia - The Guardian
Merz's woes cast doubt over EU's €2tn budget deal - FT
Burnham sends RAF to help defend Saudi Arabia - The Telegraph
Houthis push for control of Yemen highlands as Trump is said to have called off strikes - Reuters
Burnham expects to find 'common ground' with Trump in first meeting - BBC
Labour Mulls Fiscal Rule Exemption to Boost UK Building Projects - Bloomberg
ECB's Lane Says New Energy Shock to Lead to Longer Inflation - Bloomberg
Top company news
Earnings/updates
ABVX.FP (Abivax) -- reports H1 net income (€171.7M) vs FactSet (€139.5M) [2 est, (€141.3)-(137.7M)]; announces CMO transition
ABCA.FP (ABC arbitrage) -- reports H1 EPS €0.4M vs year-ago €0.3M
VU.FP (VusionGroup) -- reports H1 net income €77.4M, +81% vs year-ago €42.8M
BVI.FP (Bureau Veritas) -- CMD update: raises total revenue CAGR guidance for 2027-28 to double-digit vs prior guidance from high-single digit
NYXH.BB (Nyxoah) -- announces CFO transition; reaffirms FY26 guidance
NWRN.SW (Newron Pharmaceuticals) -- reports H1 net income (€16.4M) vs year-ago (€0.1M)
CTPNV.NA (CTP NV) -- CTP N.V. CMD; strong cash flow generating standing portfolio, which is targeted to reach €1B of annualized rental income in 2027, is allowing CTP to self-fund its growth
GREEN.SS (Green Landscaping Group) -- announces one-off costs of SEK 79M in Q3; launches improvement programme and strengthens management
PLAT.GA (Thrace Plastics Holding & Commercial) -- reports H1 net income €19.2M vs year-ago €8.2M
SRB.LN (Serabi Gold) -- reports Q2 EPS cont ops $0.12 vs year-ago $0.13
Also due to report today includes:
Earnings:
Benelux: EXOR (EXO.NA)
France: Latecoere (LAT.FP)
Southern Europe: Italian Wine Brands (IWB.IM)
UK: Smiths Group (SMIN.LN), Kingfisher (KGF.LN), OXB (OXB.LN), Luceco (LUCE.LN), PureTech Health (PRTC.LN), Yu Group (YU.LN), Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB1.LN), Henry Boot (BOOT.LN), M&C Saatchi (SAA.LN), Fonix Plc (FNX.LN), Midwich Group (MIDW.LN), Diaceutics (DXRX.LN), Microlise Group Holdings (SAAS.LN)
Other: Origin Enterprises (OIZ.ID)
Trading Update:
DACHs: TUI Group (TUI1.GR)
UK: Sthree (STEM.LN)
CMD/Events: Societe Generale (GLE.FP) fireside chat with Slawomir Krupa at 8:45BST at BofA conf, SED Energy Holdings (ENH.NO) EGM, Hansa Biopharma (HNSA.SS) EGM, Evolution (EVO.SS) EGM, Sensorion (ALSEN.FP) SENS-601 Program Day at 14:30CET
Healthcare
ROP.SW (Roche Holding) -- Roche announces enicepatide (CT-388) met both primary endpoints, delivering dose-dependent and clinically meaningful reductions in blood glucose and body weight at 48 weeks.
PHARM.NA (Pharming Group) -- to present positive Leniolisib Phase II results at ESID 2026
CLARI.FP (Clariane) -- signs new €700M revolving credit facility maturing in 2031
Other
ML.FP (Cie Generale des Etablissements Michelin SA) -- Michelin publishes global tire market data for August
GLE.FP (Societe Generale) -- Transcript Intelligence: Societe Generale Capital Markets Day
AYV.FP (Ayvens) -- Transcript Intelligence: Ayvens Capital Markets Day
CO.FP (Casino Guichard-Perrachon) -- announces agreement in principle with Quatrim bondholder group
CADLR.NO (Cadeler) -- initiates its redomiciliation from Denmark to the United Kingdom
Aecon teams awarded contracts with aggregate value of $3B for the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station Refurbishment
Key rating changes
Upgrades
ENGI.FP (ENGIE) -- to outperform from market perform at Bernstein
FORTUM.FH (Fortum) -- to buy from hold at DNB Carnegie
JMT.PL (Jeronimo Martins) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
Downgrades
BZU.IM (Buzzi SpA) -- to sell from neutral at UBS
Initiations
VZN.SW (VZ Holding) -- outperform at Oddo
ATYM.LN (Atalaya Mining) -- overweight at JPMorgan
Data
Nikkei +0.00% to 65018.95
Hang Seng +0.22% to 25097.76
Shanghai Composite +0.00% to 3949.81
S&P futures +3.3 vs prior close of 7833.5
€-$ +0.0007 or +0.06% to 1.1472
$-¥ +0.10 or +0.06% to 157.48
€-¥ +0.23 or +0.13% to 180.67
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