Sep 29 ,2026
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open mostly higher, following a flat performance on Monday. Asian equity markets mostly lower. Japan and South Korea leading falls. US equity futures lower.
Focus remains on backup in bond yields and energy prices. Monday's big rate backup was attributed to recent narrative, with hawkish monetary policy expectations and upward inflation pressure. Iran headlines remain volatile. President Trump refuted Axios report he is willing to provide sanctions relief in return for concrete progress toward nuclear deal. Bloomberg also reported Iranian officials pessimistic about deal to end conflict before November midterm elections. Stalemate in negotiations underpinning oil prices. Some positive developments, with Saudis restarting Red Sea crude exports.
Spotlight also AI safety concerns after OpenAI canceled planned release of GPT-6.1 Astra. Reuters cited Anthropic IPO prospectus, which showed 12-fold increase in 2025 revenue. Prospectus also contained warning advanced AI could pose existential risk to humanity.
Also on today's agenda, PM Burnham speech at ~14:00BST at Labour Party conf. In Sweden, earliest Riksdag speaker can propose a prime minister. Newly elected Riksdag votes on the candidate. If more than half of the members vote no, the speaker will then begin the process of finding a new prime minister candidate. Chancellor Merz will deliver a speech followed by Q+A at the 25th Annual Conf of the German Council for Sustainable Development (RNE), and later in the day hosts Kazakh President Tokayev, with press conf. following the meeting. Ireland's minister of finance Harris meets with EU's Hoekstra and the EU Commissioner attends Ireland parliamentary committee as well as delivers a keynote speech at the Dublin City Univ.
In central banks, at the final day of ECB/ESCB Legal conf, ECB's Cipollone chairs panel at 8:45CET, whilst there are remarks by ECB's Lagarde at 13:00 and ECB's Vujčić chairs panel at 13:30. Austria central bank's Kocher gives opening remarks at 9:15CET at event title from inflation dynamics to expectations: Bridging the gap between data and policy, co-hosted with central bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Bundesbank conf sees introductory remarks at 10:00CET by Mauderer and fire-side chat at 12noon by Nagel, whilst other speakers include CEOs of Deutsche Bank (DBK.GR) and Commerzbank (CBK.GR) and ECB's Cipollone chairs panel at 15:15. ECB's Lane fireside chat at 20:00CET and Denmark central bank's Thomsen speech at the 50th Central Banking Seminar at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Norges Bank's Longva and Børsum deliver a speech for Bergen Business Council. BOE's Mann panellist at 16:00BST at event organised by McKinsey Global Institute whilst BOE's Taylor delivers the Dow Lecture at 16:30BST at NIESR. Slovakia central bank's Kažimír speech in connection with release of the bank's latest economic forecasts. World Economic Forum (WEF) publishes an annual report examining the state of gender equality worldwide. LSE event at 18:30BST title A Conversation with Alberto Musalem, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
On macro data front, BRC shop price inflation came in slightly softer than expected in September on discounting by retailers. German inflation updates on the agenda, along with Eurozone economic sentiment indicator. BoE mortgage approvals data to provide a snapshot on housing market later. There is also central bank speak from Bundesbank chief Nagel, ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone and Vujcic. Note that Lagarde told lawmakers on Monday that ECB policy is at the upper end of the neutral range. There was a slightly paring back in October rate hike expectations on the remarks.
In earnings news, Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG.GR) sharply raised its FY26 earnings outlook again on strong freight demand and spot rates, now guiding EBITDA to $3.9-4.4B and EBIT to $1.25-1.75B, well above prior guidance and consensus. Pepco Group (PCO.PW) delivered its strongest quarterly like-for-like growth since its strategy reset, lifted full-year revenue, earnings, and free cash flow guidance, and approved a new up to €400M share buyback. Legrand (LR.FP) upgraded its 2030 ambitions at its Capital Markets Day, targeting 6-8% organic sales growth, 21-22% adjusted operating margin, and continued disciplined capital allocation toward M&A and buybacks. Arcadis (ARCAD.NA) unveiled 2027-29 targets alongside a restructuring that includes divesting most of its architecture and China businesses and cutting ~1,000 roles to boost margins. Also at its Investor Day, NKT (NKT.DC) reaffirmed its "Charging Forward" strategy and medium-term ambitions, outlining capital allocation priorities centered on balance sheet strength, growth investment, and shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks. On the downside, Lindt & Sprüngli (LISN.SW) cut its FY26 organic sales growth guidance to 0-2% (from 4-6%) on weak European consumer demand, though it reaffirmed its margin outlook and longer-term growth ambitions.
Politics/Macro/World News
US and Iran separately talk with mediators in latest bid to end war - Reuters
Britons want to get closer to the EU - and even Farage's voters agree - Politico
Burnham promises to roll back privatisation with government-backed grid plan - The Guardian
Burnham to signal end of triple lock - The Telegraph
Europe's LNG Shift Is Breaking the Economics of Gas Storage - Bloomberg
European banks push to recapture fees from BlackRock and Vanguard - FT
Six EU states threaten to veto EU budget billions - Handelsblatt
NIQ Shop Price Monitor - September 2026
Shop price inflation decreased to 1.4% year on year in September, against growth of 1.5% in August. This is above the 3-month average of 1.3% - BRC
Top company news
Earnings/updates
France
LR.FP (Legrand) -- provides upgraded 2030 ambitions in conjunction with 2026 CMD
GNFT.FP (GENFIT) -- reports H1 net income (€26.1M) vs year-ago (€10.0M)
GBT.FP (Guerbet) -- reports H1 net income (€32.7M) vs year-ago €1.3M
WAGA.FP (Waga Energy) -- reports H1 net income (€12.8M) vs year-ago (€11.6M)
DACHs
LISN.SW (Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli) -- Lindt & Sprüngli adjusts FY26 sales growth guidance downward citing subdued consumer sentiment and increased price sensitivity
HLAG.GR (Hapag-Lloyd) -- further raises earnings outlook for current financial year
1SMA.GR (SMAG Mobile Antenna Masts GmbH) -- reports H1 revenue €12.6M vs year-ago €11.0M
HBH.GR (Hornbach Holding) -- reports Q2 EPS €4.69 vs year-ago €4.12; revenues and adj. EBIT in line with prelims
ILM1.GR (Medios) -- expects FY31 adj EBITDA to double to ~€170M -- Ambition 2031 CMD
Benelux
OCI.NA (OCI NV) -- reports H1 net income $1.0M vs year-ago $343.1M
ARCAD.NA (Arcadis) -- expects 2026-2029 mid- to high-teens operating EBITDA margin; to reduce ~1,000 FTEs -- CMD
Nordics
BOOZT.SS (Boozt Fashion) -- Boozt upgrades FY Revenue and Ebit outlook following strong Q3
NKT.DC (NKT) -- reaffirms strategic direction and presents capital allocation priorities at today's Investor Day 2026
Others
PCO.PW (Pepco Group) -- reports Q4 revenue growth constant currency +15.6% and LFL revenue growth excluding FMCG +9.5%; approves new up to €400M share buyback
Also due to report today includes:
Earnings:
DACHs: 2G Energy (2GB.GR)
France: GenSight Biologics (SIGHT.FP)
Southern Europe: Piraeus Port Authority (PPA.GA), Seri Industrial (SERI.IM)
UK: Close Brothers (CBG.LN), A.G. BARR (BAG.LN), S&U (SUS.LN), Wilmington (WIL.LN), Card Factory (CARD.LN), Ebiquity (EBQ.LN)
CMD/Events: BMW Group (BMW.GR) through Wed, British American Tobacco (BATS.LN) through Wed, KWS Vegetables (KWS.GR) Investor & Analyst Seminar, PayPoint (PAY.LN), INDUS Holding (INH.GR) and Multitude (MULT.GR) among participants at Zürich Investorentag, Medacta Group (MOVE.SW) production site visit, TUI (TUI1.GR) - SdK, Scanfil (SCANFL.FH), OMV Petrom (SNP.RO)
M&A
BP.LN (BP) -- weighing sale of Brazilian biofuels business - Bloomberg
RXL.FP (Rexel) -- announces €500M capital increase
ZIM (Zim Integrated Shipping Services) -- shares turn lower amid circulation of TheMarker report
CBK.GR (Commerzbank) -- Unicredit may seek to replace Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp next year - FT
7013.JP (IHI) -- to sell Steinmüller Engineering to mutares Holding 106; terms undisclosed
Merchant Wealth Partner acquires stake in Ironbark Financial - Australian Financial Review
Healthcare
NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk) -- Follow-up: Novo Nordisk to obtain exclusive rights to Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceutical's HRS-1596 globally (ex-China) for potential total value of up to $2.6B
UCB.BB (UCB) -- research at AANEM 2026 highlights advances in targeted treatments and patient-centered care for generalized Myasthenia Gravis
EKTA.B.SS (Elekta) -- announces presentation of Unity MR-Linac data
13.HK (Hutchmed) -- AstraZeneca submit US NDA for Orpathys/Tagrisso in MET-driven EGFR-mutated NSCLC
PHARM.NA (Pharming Group) -- Pharming CEO Fabrice Chouraqui to step down with immediate effect; appoints CCO Leverne Marsh and CFO Kenneth Lynard as interim Co-CEOs
NYXH.BB (Nyxoah) -- appoints Liam kelly as CEO; effective 1-Oct-26
600276.CH (Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals) -- Novo to obtain exclusive rights to Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceutical's HRS-1596 globally (ex-China) for potential total value of up to $2.6B
EGTX.SS (Egetis Therapeutics) -- announces FDA approval of EMCITATE for patients with MCT8 deficiency
Other
TTE.FP (TotalEnergies) -- Transcript Intelligence: TotalEnergies Investor Day
BA.LN (BAE Systems) -- awarded $94.6M US Navy contract
ALO.FP (Alstom) -- signs contract worth ~€460M with the Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC)
SW.FP (Sodexo) -- announces succession to its Chair of the board
ANTO.LN (Antofagasta) -- Two unions at Antofagasta Minerals Centinela mine reject latest contract offer
BAER.SW (Julius Baer Group) -- confirms conclusion of FINMA enforcement procedure
FRES.LN (Fresnillo) -- Transcript Intelligence: Fresnillo at Americas Mining Forum
HOC.LN (Hochschild Mining) -- Transcript Intelligence: Hochschild Mining at Americas Mining Forum
SpaceX successful Starship launch mission ended early; execs call for self-improving AI oversight in intraday themes (28-Sep)
Key rating changes
Upgrades
GRE.SM (Grenergy Renovables) -- to outperform at Bernstein
SLR.SM (Solaria Energia) -- to outperform at Bernstein
BVI.FP (Bureau Veritas) -- to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan
IBE.SM (Iberdrola) -- to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank
FABG.SS (Fabege) -- to hold from sell at ABG Sundal Collier
SILEX.SS (Silex Microsystems) -- to hold from sell at ABG Sundal Collier
Downgrades
FME.GR (Fresenius Medical Care) -- Fresenius Medical Care transferred, downgraded to hold from buy at Berenberg
RTO.LN (Rentokil Initial) -- to equal-weight from overweight at Morgan Stanley
ERF.FP (Eurofins Scientific) -- to market perform from outperform at Bernstein
BILL.SS (Billerud) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
METSO.FH (Metso Corp.) -- to hold from buy at Danske Bank
KALMAR.FH (Kalmar) -- to sell from hold at Danske Bank
ALFA.SS (Alfa Laval) -- to hold from buy at Danske Bank
TREL.B.SS (Trelleborg) -- to hold from buy at Danske Bank
Data
Nikkei (1.52%) to 64875.70
Hang Seng (0.75%) to 24457.44
Shanghai Composite (0.08%) to 3820.63
S&P futures (24.3) vs prior close of 7746.8
€-$ (0.0015) or (0.13%) to 1.1356
$-¥ (0.04) or (0.02%) to 157.34
€-¥ (0.28) or (0.16%) to 178.67
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