Oct 01 ,2026
Synopsis:
European indices ended in negative territory, near the session's lows. Latest jump in oil/energy comes amid lack of diplomatic traction in the Middle East, still seemingly overshadowing better flow data. On the macro -front, Final manufacturing PMI in Eurozone revised up slightly, while UK reading revised lower. UK Nationwide house price data underperforms expectations and follows weak BoE mortgage approval update on Wednesday. Swiss inflation also on the agenda. Meanwhile, ECB President Lagarde said she did not rule out possibility of leaving role a few months before term ends. Elsewhere, France's 2027 budget reaches parliament today with OAT-Bund spread at 126 bps, up 40 bps since mid-Sep, and inflation unexpectedly at 3% in Sep (LesEchos). PM Lecornu said France borrowing at 4.8%, a rate not seen since 2008, and has warned lawmakers not to add political instability to an energy-driven rise in rates ahead of presidential election. Note, public debt near record €3.6T. Draft claims €54B of "efforts" and aims to hold deficit at 5%. ~40% of that comes from higher taxes and levies, 60% from spending cuts, including €5.5B on pensions.
In M&A news, Fresenius (FRE.GR) acquired the remaining 45% of mAbxience for up to €750M, fully consolidating its biosimilars platform. Land Securities (LAND.LN) is expected to raise equity to fund a £500M acquisition of Metrocentre, while Air France (AF.FP) and Lufthansa (LHA.GR) submitted improved binding offers for a stake in TAP. BT Group (BT.A.LN) is also in focus after reports that Epiris sought a waiver on Openreach payments tied to a potential TalkTalk rescue deal. In corporate news, Sika (SIKA.SW) is hosting an investor day highlighting growth initiatives including its Fast Forward program and the Akkim acquisition.
On the reporting front, Continental (CON.GR) published an upbeat pre-close call whilst - in the UK- SSE PL (SSE.LN) issued its H1 trading update indicating it remains on track to deliver its FY26/27 adj EPS target. In Belgium, Colruyt Group (COLR.BB) adopted a more cautious stance on its outlook for the current financial year's operating result. Of note, shares in Capgemini (CAP.FP) closed ~+7% up, lifted by Accenture's strong Q4 earnings
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers: Technology +0.47%, Media +0.34%, Telecom +0.18%, Oil & Gas +0.01%, Utilities (0.57%), Insurance (0.73%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.80%), Health Care (0.85%), Travel & Leisure (1.21%), Food & Beverage (1.25%)
Underperformers: Banks (3.74%), Persnl & HHold Goods (2.35%), Basic Resources (1.96%), Autos & Parts (1.69%), Real Estate (1.64%), Chemicals (1.62%), Financial Svcs (1.48%), Construct & Mtls (1.35%), Retail (1.34%)
Macro:
US tells France and Germany to release diesel stocks or face US export ban (Reuters)
EU countries in crisis talks over release of diesel stocks (FT)
Germans' biggest fear is the high cost of living (dw)
France Seeks to Win Over Markets and Lawmakers With Deficit Plan (BBG)
ECB's Lagarde says 'not a good idea' to run for French president (RTE)
UK courts Berlin for fighter jet role after collapse of Franco-German project (Politico)
Brexit referendum 'possible' in Labour election manifesto, says Burnham (BBC)
UK 30-year gilt yields top 6% for the first time since 1998 (Reuters)
Italy's inactivity rate down to record low of 32.7% says Istat (Ansa)
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+31.7% HEALTH.FH (Nightingale Health €1.22, +0.29) -- $6.5M proteomics agreement with Michael J. Fox Foundation for neurodegenerative disease research+
+29.2% NOM.NO (Nordic Mining NOK1.15, +0.26) -- approval of temporary discharge permit; CEO resigns, new CEO appointed
+10.5% CEL.LN (Celadon Pharmaceuticals £0.76, +0.07) -- investor update
+8.2% FTC.LN (Filtronic £2.57, +0.20) -- follow-on order from SpaceX
+7.5% GARO.SS (GARO SEK11.80, +0.82) -- to discontinue GARO Entity product family and intensify focus on Electrification
+7.4% CAP.FP (Capgemini €112.10, +7.70) -- ACN Q4 earnings sympathy
+6.7% ALICA.FP (ICAPE Holding €9.28, +0.58) -- earnings
+3.8% KIT.NO (Kitron NOK101.80, +3.75) -- target up at Nordea
+2.9% TIN.LN (Cornish Metals £1.05, +0.03) -- positive assay results from drilling programme
+2.3% SBO.NO (Selvaag Bolig NOK31.20, +0.70) -- home sales update
+1.7% PEEL.LN (Peel Hunt £0.92, +0.02) -- trading update
+0.9% SAAB.B.SS (Saab SEK623.20, +5.40) -- BofA upgrade
+0.4% CON.GR (Continental €67.40, +0.28) -- Q3 pre-close call
Notable Decliners
-10.2% COLR.BB (Colruyt Group €35.30, -4.02) -- cautious outlook
-6.4% ALUNI.FP (UNIFY Group €1.60, -0.11) -- acquisition
-6.3% LNZ.AV (Lenzing €19.50, -1.30) -- cash capital increase
-6.2% GAW.LN (Games Workshop Group £168.70, -11.20)
-6.1% ZEAL.DC (Zealand Pharma DKK254.50, -16.60) -- Boehringer Ingelheim trial results
-5.5% TW.LN (Taylor Wimpey £0.81, -0.05) -- sector move
-5.4% NWG.LN (NatWest Group £6.51, -0.37) -- sector move
-5.3% BWY.LN (Bellway £20.94, -1.18) -- sector move
-5.1% PSN.LN (Persimmon £12.48, -0.67) -- sector move
-4.7% BKG.LN (Berkeley Group Holdings £31.90, -1.58) -- sector move
-4.7% NSKOG.NO (Norske Skog NOK44.60, -2.20) -- completes transaction with NND
-4.6% CABK.SM (CaixaBank €12.03, -0.58) -- sector move
-4.5% CBG.LN (Close Brothers Group £3.98, -0.19) -- sector move
-4.5% LLOY.LN (Lloyds Banking Group £1.02, -0.05) -- sector move
-4.4% BTRW.LN (Barratt Redrow £3.18, -0.15) -- sector move
-4.4% MT.NA (ArcelorMittal €56.74, -2.62)
-4.2% MB.IM (Mediobanca €27.41, -1.21) -- sector move
-4.2% SAN.SM (Banco Santander €11.81, -0.52) -- sector move
-4.1% EMG.LN (Man Group £3.16, -0.14) -- sector move
-4.1% PANR.LN (Pantheon Resources £0.11, -0.00) -- CEO to step down
-4.1% UCG.IM (UniCredit €79.53, -3.37) -- sector move
-4.0% HSBA.LN (HSBC Holdings £14.37, -0.61) -- sector move
-3.9% INGA.NA (ING Groep €30.25, -1.24) -- sector move
-3.9% PVMEZZ.GA (Phoenix Vega Mezz €0.05, -0.00) -- earnings
-3.7% ACA.FP (Credit Agricole €16.92, -0.65) -- sector move
-3.6% BNP.FP (BNP Paribas €91.54, -3.46) -- sector move
-3.5% FSECURE.FH (F-Secure €1.49, -0.05) -- to renew its operating model
-3.4% ALCLS.FP (Cellectis SA €1.29, -0.04) -- remarks at Stifel Virtual Cardiometabolic Forum
-3.4% ALM.SM (Almirall €10.20, -0.36) -- study results
-3.3% EVPL.LN (Everplay £4.40, -0.15) -- holder places 3.33M shares
-3.3% PNDORA.DC (Pandora DKK803.00, -27.60) -- CEO comments US demand dampening as inflation worries grow
-3.3% VWS.DC (Vestas Wind Systems DKK189.70, -6.45) -- order
-3.2% SNI.NO (Stolt-Nielsen NOK362.00, -12.00) -- earnings
-3.1% PZC.LN (PZ Cussons £0.95, -0.03) -- trading statement
-3.1% UBSG.SW (UBS Group CHF39.06, -1.23) -- Artisan Partners Asset Management sends letter to the board of UBS Group AG, no longer sees Switzerland as desirable location for UBS
-3.0% VTY.LN (Vistry Group £2.50, -0.08) -- sector move
-2.6% DBK.GR (Deutsche Bank €31.03, -0.83) -- sector move
-2.5% VCT.FP (Vicat €58.00, -1.50) -- acquisition
-1.9% BREE.LN (Breedon Group £3.17, -0.06) -- CEO to retire; new CEO appointed
-1.7% GLE.LN (MJ Gleeson £2.86, -0.05) -- sector move
-1.3% KNEBV.FH (Kone €50.52, -0.66) -- plans TK Elevator Europe sale to address antitrust concerns -- Reuters
-0.1% STG.DC (Scandinavian Tobacco Group DKK73.90, -0.10) -- completes divestment of BREAK and Moro; raises FY26 FCF guidance
EU companies reporting Friday:
France: Bonduelle (BON.FP)
UK: JD Wetherspoon (JDW.LN)
Macro-releases expected tomorrow:
Italy Aug retail sales, Spain Sep unemployment change, Eurozone Sep flash CPI, Norway Sep retail sales, Finland Sep HICP rate, Austria Sep HICP rate
Data:
Economics:
Eurozone Aug Unemployment Rate 6.4% vs consensus 6.4% and prior 6.4%
Sep Manufacturing
Eurozone 52.9 vs preliminary 52.7
France 50.6 vs preliminary 50.3
Germany 53.9 vs preliminary 54.3
UK PMI 51.9 vs preliminary 51.7
Spain 51.0 vs consensus 50.1 and prior 49.5
Switzerland 55.3 vs consensus 56.0 and prior 57.1
Italy Aug Unemployment Rate 6.2% vs consensus 5.8% and prior 5.8%
Switzerland
Sep CPI y/y +1.0% vs consensus +1.0% and prior +0.8%
Aug Retail sales y/y +3.2% vs consensus +2.2% and prior revised to +2.6% from +2.3%
UK Sep Nationwide House Price Index y/y +0.8% vs consensus +1.3% and prior +1.6%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Nov 26): +$2.20 or +2.43% to $92.62
€-$ (0.0086) or (0.76%) to 1.1246
£-$ (0.0059) or (0.45%) to 1.3206
€-£ (0.0025) to 0.8519
S&P 500 (0.20%)
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +5.04%
DAX: +1.83%
CAC: (3.86%)
MIB: +11.78%
Stoxx 600: +5.81%
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