Oct 02 ,2026
Synopsis
European markets indicate mixed to higher open. Asian equities mixed and US futures higher. Note Mainland China closed for National Day holiday. Bonds mixed with Treasury yields up 1-2 bp while JGB yields down 1-2 at the front end of the curve. Dollar steady against majors. Crude backing off overnight highs. Gold and silver off lows. Bitcoin nudging higher.
Yields stabilizing following recent surge higher. Rate pullback fairly shallow and Treasuries have resumed weakness following Thursday's bull steepening move. Crude rebounded amid lack of diplomatic progress in Middle East and latest war threats from Trump. Latest PMIs also revealed firms face ongoing cost pressures. While softer August core PCE inflation led to moderately flatter rate path, market still pricing in three Fed rate hikes by mid-2027.
On the agenda today, in central banks, Bank of Finland's Rehn speech at 9:30CET on final day of annual conf. of the European Systemic Risk Board, with Netherland central bank's Sleijpen chairing a panel at 10:15, ECB's Vujčić speech at 13:30 and ECB's Buch panellist at 14:15. ECB's Cipollone speech at 9:30CET at 10th Conf. of Mediterranean Central Banks (through Sat). Bundesbank's Nagel speech at 21:35CET at Rostock Merchants' Assn/ SNB Research conf (through Sat). Bank of France's Moulin due to speak in Paris. Also on Fri are UK Green Party conf (through Sun) whilst EU Justice Council meets and EU's Hansen chairs the 8th meeting of the European Board on Agriculture and Food.
In macro releases for today, Spain Sep unemployment change due at 8:00 BST, followed by Italy Aug retail sales at 9:00 BST and Eurozone Sep flash CPI at 10:00 BST.
Politics/Macro/World News
UK:
Andy Burnham searches for UK alternative to Palantir (FT )
Britain in talks with European allies over release of emergency diesel stockpiles amid Trump pressure (The Guardian )
Germany:
France:
France's Crisis Is Deepening as Investors Head for the Exit (Bloomberg )
Politics:
Israel's Herzog calls British sanctions a 'grave mistake,' accuses UK of election interference (Politico )
Trade:
'Tough' talks with China have yet to deliver, EU trade chief says (Politico )
War/Defense:
EU, Ukraine agree to accelerate €45B loan payout in 2027 (Politico )
Merz warns of more Russian hybrid attacks as he reaffirms support for Ukraine (Reuters )
Putin Has Told Military Leaders To Abandon Rules Of War, Zelenskyy Says (FT )
Swiss Opposition to US Fighter-Jet Deal Hardens, Poll Shows (Bloomberg )
Top company news
Earnings/updates
STLAM.IM (Stellantis) --Q3 Total US Sales 324,277 vs. 324,825 year-ago
BN.FP (Danone) -- publishes its Q3 sales aide-mémoire
M&A
HEN3.GR (Henkel) -- successfully closes acquisition of specialty coatings company Stahl
CLN.SW (Clariant) -- acknowledges closing of the Stahl transaction between Wendel SE and Henkel; preliminary cash proceed of ~CHF220M pre-tax
MF.FP (Wendel) -- finalizes sale of its stake in Stahl (excluding Muno) for an enterprise value of €2.1B to Henkel
BA.LN (BAE Systems) -- considering bid for Robin Radar Systems in potential $2.3B deal - Reuters
SGO.FP (Compagnie de Saint-Gobain) -- completes acquisition of Xypex
ERF.FP ( Eurofins Scientific) --- UL Solutions Inc. (ULS) completes acquisition of Eurofins Scientific's Electrical & Electronics business
BT.A.LN (BT Group) -- BT in talks with government to get approval to possibly buy TalkTalk - FT
SGSN.SW (SGS) -- acquires Prescient Security; terms undisclosed
+KNDS.GR (KDNS NV) -- Warburg Pincus has been holding talks to potentially acquire substantial stake in KNDS NV -- Bloomberg, citing sources
NEWA.B.SS (New Wave Group) -- completes acquisition of uhlsport group
0IFR.LN (ChronoScale Holdings Corp.) -- ChronoScale announces agreements bringing contracted run-rate revenue to $1B; sale of Ekso Bionics business unit
BRKN.SW (Burkhalter Holding) -- Burkhalter Group acquires Plasco AG in Steg (Valais); price not disclosed
HEI.GR (Heidelberg) -- MAAS Group (MGH.AU) completes previously announced sale of construction materials business to Heidelberg for A$1.61B
TFIN.IM (Trevi-Finanziaria Industriale) -- Trevi board approves update to issuer's statement on ICOP's voluntary public exchange offer following increase in consideration
EG Group delays plans to list, has seen interest from potential buyers - FT
Healthcare
REGN (Regeneron) -- announces new results from Phase 2 COURAGE trial
COLO.B.DC (Coloplast) -- provides update on change of ownership
NANO.FP (Nanobiotix) -- appoints Arnd Christ as CFO
Other
DOM.SS (Dometic Group) -- prevails in earnout dispute with ACON Igloo Holdings LLC
CRBN.NA (Corbion) -- CEO Olivier Rigaud to step down at the end of current term on 12-May-27
57L.GR (Sono Group) -- SEC filing: SCHEDULE 13D (Filed by Alpine Fox Capital LLC)
DG.FP (VINCI SA) -- VINCI implements €270M share buyback programme
GLE.FP (Societe Generale) -- completes €1.5B share buy-back program
BAER.SW (Julius Baer Group) -- Julius Baer announces CHF 600M share buy-back and revised capital distribution policy
FFARM.NA ForFarmers and KPS Food Group announce JV in Poland completed
ENDUR.NO Endur subsidiary, Artec Aqua VAQ AS, awarded contract by Gaia Salmon Holding AS bankruptcy estate for engineering and planning phase of modification and completion of Gaia Salmon's land-based RAS facility at Trona, Norway
Italy Sep new passenger car registrations 139,356 units, +9.9% y/y -- UNRAE
Manulife Financial closes reinsurance of $3.2B of policies in Munich American Reassurance Company; deal was announced 5-Aug
Key rating changes
Upgrades
FORTUM.FH (Fortum) -- to neutral from sell at UBS
ITP.FP (Interparfums) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
HAG.GR (HENSOLDT) -- to buy from hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
UMG.NA (Universal Music Group) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
Downgrades
CBK.GR (Commerzbank) -- to sector perform from outperform at RBC Capital Markets
TREL.B.SS (Trelleborg) -- to hold from buy at Pareto
BILL.SS (Billerud) -- Billerud assumed, downgraded to hold from buy at DNB Carnegie
LNZ.AV (Lenzing) -- to hold from buy at Berenberg
ATRLJ.B.SS (Atrium Ljungberg) -- to hold from buy at Handelsbanken
BALD.B.SS (Fastighets Balder) -- to hold from buy at Handelsbanken
CATE.SS (Catena) -- to hold from buy at Handelsbanken
ENTRA.NO (Entra ASA) -- to hold from buy at Handelsbanken
FABG.SS (Fabege) -- to hold from buy at Handelsbanken
HEBA.B.SS (HEBA Fastighets) -- to hold from buy at Handelsbanken
Initiations
SALM.NO (Salmar) -- buy at Goldman Sachs
MOWI.NO (Mowi ) -- neutral at Goldman Sachs
Other
STERV.FH (Stora Enso) -- assumed buy (unchanged) at DNB Carnegie
UPM.FH (UPM-Kymmene) -- assumed buy vs prior hold at DNB Carnegie
HOLM.B.SS (Holmen) -- assumed hold (unchanged) at DNB Carnegie
METSB.FH (Metsa Board) -- assumed hold (unchanged) at DNB Carnegie
SCA.B.SS (Svenska Cellulosa) -- assumed hold (unchanged) at DNB Carnegie
ACS.SM (ACS SA) -- reinitiated outperform at Oddo
FCC.SM (Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas) -- reinitiated outperform at Oddo
ANA.SM (Acciona) -- reinitiated neutral at Oddo
Data
Nikkei (0.99%) to 68271.32
Hang Seng (2.69%) to 23951.10
Shanghai Composite closed
S&P futures +20.3 vs prior close of 7724.0
€-$ +0.0003 or +0.03% to 1.1248
$-¥ (0.25) or (0.16%) to 157.82
€-¥ (0.24) or (0.14%) to 177.49
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