Oct 05 ,2026
Synopsis:
European equity markets closed mostly higher, off best levels, Basic Resources, Banks and Energy lead; Construct & Mtls, Ind Goods & Svcs and Retail the notable decliners. Follows selloff in European markets last week.
Stabilization in bond markets somewhat supportive for equity markets. Friday's softer-than-expected US NFP report saw implied odds of an October rate hike fall below 25%. Pullback in yields also occurring alongside decline in oil prices. Nothing particularly incremental on Middle East though few articles highlighting Iran's loosening grip on SoH, and pickup in Saudi crude volumes. Some attention on political risk in the Eurozone weighing in the euro. Ongoing discussions about French presidential election/fiscal risks. In addition, Spanish PM Sanchez called an early election for 29-Nov after parliaments rejects housing package.
On the macro data front, final Eurozone PMI for September unchanged from flash; French and German reading little changed, Italian update missed and Spanish reading outperformed. UK final PMI revised up slightly from flash reading. Eurozone PPI beat expectations, up 9.2% in September, highest since Feb-2023. ECB's Nagel said upside inflation risks still dominate even though energy has not yet fed into wages. ECB's Lane said energy shock also destroying demand and may limit how far policy needs to tighten. In other news, UK is preparing to follow the EU and impose import taxes on Chinese electric cars in a move to protect manufacturers. The new import charges a key demand from Brussels, which is concerned that Britain has become a backdoor for Chinese exports into wider European market. Policy proposals anticipated from Conservative Party conference.
MA& deals dominate the headlines: Schneider Electric (SU.FP) agreed to acquire PTC Inc. for $205/sh in cash in a ~$23B, whilst Akzo Nobel (AKZA.NA) sold its Decorative Paints South East Asia business to Nippon Paint for an EV of $1.35B; also, BT Group (BT.A.LN) acquired TalkTalk Telecommunications Ltd and PlatformX Communications Ltd out of administration; in the banking sector, Permanent TSB (PTSB.ID) confirmed no offer has been made by Axis and that announcement by Axis is highly speculative and conditional. Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP.IM) raised its offer for Monte Paschi (BMPS.IM) with a €0.25/share increase in the cash component; on the speculation front, GIC, Ares are reportedly preparing offers for Rio Tinto (RIO.LN) infrastructure assets and Tesco (TSCO.LN) is among other parties bidding for Majestic Wine.
On the reporting front, Deutsche Telekom (DTE.GR) expects €2.5B savings by 2030 vs 2023 via AI and confirms guidance and medium-term targets, whilst National Grid (NG.LN) issued its H1 pre-close update; Air Liquide (AI.FP) unveiled a new strategic plan through 2030 and Grieg Seafood (GSF.NO) revised its FY guidance amidst an abnormal mortality in Sep.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar (see - Europe Week Ahead: 05-Oct to 09-Oct attached) Íslandsbanki (ISB.IR) and Icelandair Group (ICEAIR.IR) will be amongst other names to update investors, whilst the macro-calendar releases will include Germany Aug factory orders, Sep construction PMI, France Aug industrial production, Spain Aug industrial production, Switzerland Sep unemployment rate, Eurozone Aug retail sales, UK Sep construction PMI, Denmark Aug manufacturing production.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Basic Resources +1.53%, Banks +1.33%, Energy+1.08%, Insurance +0.64%, Financial Svcs +0.59%, Real Estate +0.58%, Media +0.52%, Chemicals +0.49%,
Underperformers:
Construct & Mtls (0.92%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.72%), Retail (0.45%), Travel & Leisure (0.41%), Food, Beverage and Tobacco +0.04%, Utilities +0.06%, Consumer Products and Services +0.14%, Personal Care Drug and Grocery Stores +0.27%, Health Care +0.28%, Telecom +0.30%, Technology +0.35%,
Macro/Peripheral markets:
Geopolitics
Central Banks
EU
UK
UK reviewing whether to impose tariffs on Chinese car imports to align with EU - The Guardian
No 10 insists RAF Fairford is safe after US withdraws bombers - BBC
Britain loses £120bn as billionaires flee Labour - The Telegraph
Badenoch to make inheritance tax cut core of conference speech - The Times
Britain has no plan to feed people in a crisis - Foodrise charity open letter
France
Push to ban EU left group over French riots - Politico
Germany
Verdi wants six percent more money for employees of private banks - Handelsbllatt
Germany's AfD weighs shift from anti-EU roots, strategy paper shows - Reuters
Norway
Government starts work on a new national AI strategy that will set a common direction for AI policy; to propose a temporary ban on the use of AI glasses in selected public places - release
Spain
Sánchez bets it all on housing ahead of Spain's snap election - Politico
Ireland
Five things to watch out for in Budget 2027 - Irish Examiner
Company news:
Trading Higher:
+6.5% TFIN.IM (Trevi-Finanziaria Industriale €5.19, +0.32) -- Webuild raises offer price for Trevi-Finanziaria Industriale to €5.165/share in cash
+5.3% GMAB.DC (Genmab DKK2,377.00, +120.00) -- holder Darwin Global (Abhishek Trehan) discloses 5.11% stake; trial results
+4.5% CINPHA.SS (Cinclus Pharma Holding SEK13.52, +0.58) -- trial results
+4.1% VPK.NA (Royal Vopak €50.10, +1.96) -- target increased to €64 from €56 at KBC
+4.0% CAMX.SS (Camurus SEK632.50, +24.50)
+3.9% APTD.LN (Aptitude Software Group £2.68, +0.10) -- £6.5M of Aptitude Accounting Hub renewals
+3.6% HEX.NO (Hexagon Composites NOK12.82, +0.45) -- initiated buy at Arctic Securities
+3.5% AMBEA.SS (Ambea AB SEK177.00, +6.00) -- Nytida acquires provider of disability care services Imera AB; no financial details were provided
+3.0% ALMB.DC (Alm. Brand DKK16.79, +0.49) -- raises FY guidance
+2.5% ITH.LN (Ithaca Energy £2.82, +0.07) -- to sell interests in Terra Nova, White Rose, and West White Rose to Ithaca Energy for C$1.2B cash plus additional contingent payment of up to C$350M
+2.5% DPP.LN (DP Poland £0.06, -0.00) -- AMC V Leonardo SARL has purchased 355,000 ordinary shares of 0.5p each in DP Poland
+2.2% QTX.LN (Quartix Technologies £2.30, +0.05) -- trading update
+1.8% AKZA.NA (Akzo Nobel €58.00, +1.04) -- to sell Decorative Paints South East Asia business to Nippon Paint for EV of $1.35B (€1.2B)
+1.4% BT.A.LN (BT Group £1.99, +0.03) -- acquires TalkTalk Telecommunications Ltd and PlatformX Communications Ltd out of administration
+1.3% CON.GR (Continental €68.94, +0.90) -- Morgan Stanley upgrade
+1.2% MUX.GR (Mutares SE & Co KGaA €24.95, +0.30) -- receives irrevocable offer for acquisition of controlling stake in Lapeyre Group
+0.5% EVK.GR (Evonik Industries €20.74, +0.10) -- Berenberg upgrade
+0.4% AI.FP (Air Liquide €171.32, +0.60) -- unveils "BEYOND", its strategic plan through 2030
+0.3% NKT.DC (NKT A/S DKK895.50, +2.50) -- initiated buy at BofA
Trading Lower:
-11.1% NOL.NO (Northern Ocean NOK6.58, -0.82) -- contemplating $71.5M private placement at NOK6.50/share
-10.0% SU.FP (Schneider Electric €273.50, -30.20) -- to acquire PTC Inc. (PTC) for $205/share in cash
-7.8% HEALTH.FH (Nightingale Health €1.19, -0.10)
-7.7% GSF.NO (Grieg Seafood NOK23.02, -1.92) -- lowers FY guidance
-7.3% PDX.SS (Paradox Interactive SEK141.30, -11.10) -- ABG Sundal Collier downgrade
-6.7% ATORX.SS (Alligator Bioscience SEK0.02, -0.00)
-6.4% IMMNOV.SS (Immunovia SEK0.07, -0.00) -- journal publication
-6.0% III.LN (3i Group £24.02, -1.53)
-5.2% SKA.B.SS (Skanska SEK263.90, -14.50) -- Jefferies downgrade
-5.1% MB.IM (Mediobanca €26.05, -1.41)
-4.8% TYRES.FH (Nokian Renkaat €14.74, -0.74) -- DNB Carnegie downgrade
-4.4% ICOP.IM (I. CO. P. €28.60, -1.30) -- Webuild raises offer price for Trevi-Finanziaria Industriale to €5.165/share in cash
-3.8% CEL.LN (Celadon Pharmaceuticals £0.77, -0.03) -- sold ~2.9M shares in accordance with the terms of the subscription agreement announced on 24-Dec-25
-2.7% COLR.BB (Colruyt Group €33.34, -0.94) -- UBS downgrade
-2.5% AFX.GR (Carl Zeiss Meditec €30.52, -0.78) -- Goldman Sachs downgrade
-2.5% MEL.SM (Melia Hotels International €9.92, -0.26) -- reinitiated hold at Bestinver Securities
-2.1% MTRO.LN (Metro Bank Holdings £1.61, -0.03) -- initiated neutral at Citi
-0.8% IMMU.SS (Mendus SEK6.15, -0.05) -- new COO
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Trading Update:
Other: Íslandsbanki (ISB.IR)
Traffic: Icelandair Group (ICEAIR.IR)
Data:
Economics:
Sep services PMI
Sweden 57.4 vs consensus 54.0, prior revised 56.0 from 55.8
Spain 58.3 vs consensus 57.1, prior 57.8
Italy 51.7 vs consensus 54.6, prior 55.2
France 51.2 vs preliminary 51.4
Germany 52.9 vs preliminary 52.9
Eurozone 53.0 vs preliminary 53.0
UK 52.1 vs preliminary 51.7
Eurozone Aug PPI +8.2% y/y vs consensus +8.1% and prior +5.8%
Markets:
WTI Crude (Nov 26): ($0.73) or (0.80%) to $90.38
€-$ (0.0049) or (0.44%) to 1.1213
£-$ (0.0018) or (0.14%) to 1.3221
€-£ (0.0027) to 0.8480
S&P 500 +0.52%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +5.70%
DAX: +3.12%
CAC: (3.87%)
MIB: +13.07%
Stoxx 600: +7.00%
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