Oct 06 ,2026
Synopsis:
European equities ended broadly higher, but off best levels. Some support as OAT-Bund spread and oil prices slightly lower. Rally in Eurozone bonds today driven by fiscal discipline hopes stemming from France 2027 budget formally submitted today and Le Pen budget proposal and France's finance minister saying no need for ECB support/intervention for the moment. That said, market debate heating up about ECB's potential to step in to support France amid surging borrowing costs, though bar seen as high and fiscal consolidation by government seen preferable first, though contagion risk and further yield surges could force central bank to act. Regarding 2026 budget, government likely to use Art 49.3 to pass the budget without a majority, which would expose it to a no-confidence vote
Euro bouncing after hitting near 17-month low due to contagion fears even as Spain's snap November election adds political uncertainty. On the data front, German factory orders declined 10.6% in Aug versus a 1% drop expected. Eurozone retail sales missed expectations, at 0.8% y/y versus 1% consensus. In UK, reports suggest Burnham may push UK defence-spending pathway to Oct-2027. UK Construction PMI beat at 46.1 versus 44.8 expected. Energy also in focus as flow headlines remain largely upbeat (though for crude, not products) amid rebounding Gulf crude flows. Trump signed executive order to temporarily ease restrictions on the use of tax-exempt red diesel on public roads.
Health Care among outperforming sectors. Genmab (GMAB.DC) up after its combination treatment with AbbVie (ABBV) delivered statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements in progression-free survival for DLBCL patients. AstraZeneca (AZN.LN) also up after its CEO said the company has what it needs to grow beyond 2030 without a major acquisition, while Sanofi (SAN.FP) benefits from a positive currency outlook update. Recordati (REC.IM) rose after its takeover offer by CVC and Groupe Bruxelles Lambert was increased to €53/share. Elsewhere, Informa (INF.LN) announced plans to separate its Academic business, Taylor & Francis, focusing the group on its core B2B business. Additionally, it is further reinforcing its position as the leading operator of B2B Live Events through the acquisition of Clarion in a £2.24B combination that lifts revenues, accelerates growth and enhances EPS from 2027. Kenmare Resources (KMR.LN) confirmed that it has received a non-binding proposal from International Resources Holdings RSC Ltd regarding a possible cash offer. BPCE has acquired stake equivalent to ~7% of the share capital of Sabadell (SAB.SM). BE Semiconductor (BESI.NA) was downgraded to neutral from buy at BofA with firm citing competition fears and adoption delays among factors.
Digest:
Sectors - STOXX Europe 600:
Outperformers:
Travel & Leisure +1.40%, Food & Beverage +1.26%, Autos & Parts +1.24%, Banks +1.13%, Real Estate +0.96%, Construct & Mtls +0.96%, Retail +0.95%, Financial Svcs +0.92%, Media +0.91%, Persnl & HHold Goods +0.74%, Health Care +0.61%, Utilities +0.51%, Chemicals +0.50%, Insurance +0.49%,
Underperformers:
Telecom (0.34%), Ind Goods & Svcs (0.27%), Basic Resources (0.02%), Oil & Gas +0.13%, Technology +0.27%
Macro:
UK
Ireland
Budget 2027: Help-to-buy scheme increases; fuel allowance to increase by €5; €10 increase in weekly social welfare rates as Opposition describes measures as 'budget for Scrooges' (Irish Times)
EU
EU Commission floats safeguard against democratic backsliding by new members (Reuters)
France
Germany
AfD candidate elected speaker of German regional parliament for first time (Reuters)
Italy:
Italian economy's solidity will help wages recover in 2027-28 - ECB's Lane tells ANSA
Company news:
Notable Gainers
+21.3% KMR.LN (Kenmare Resources £2.24, +0.39) -- confirms that it has received a non-binding proposal from International Resources Holdings RSC Ltd regarding a possible cash offer
+16.0% MEDCL.FP (MedinCell €26.62, +3.70) -- Stifel raises price target
+15.5% IDEX.NO (IDEX Biometrics NOK6.12, +0.82) -- Q3 business update; order
+12.6% GABR.DC (Gabriel Holding DKK250.00, +28.00) -- raises FY guidance
+10.6% SGL.GR (SGL Carbon €5.39, +0.52) -- reports prelim 9M EBITDApre of ~ €106M vs year-ago €108.6M; raises FY26 EBITDApre forecast €130-140M vs previous forecast €110-130M
+6.0% BORR.NO (Borr Drilling NOK41.30, +2.35) -- director Tor Olav Trøim (Drew Holdings Ltd) acquired 1.5M shares on 5-Oct
+5.1% HOME.SM (Neinor Homes €17.54, +0.85) -- AEDAS Homes agrees to sell nine assets for residential development projects located in major Spanish cities, in the mid-range residential segment, to JV; updates financial guidance
+4.8% ALO.FP (Alstom €16.08, +0.74) -- publishes aide-memoire ahead of H1 publication
+4.8% DOM.LN (Domino's Pizza Group £2.23, +0.10) -- initiated buy at Berenberg
+4.4% GMAB.DC (Genmab DKK2,482.00, +105.00) -- study results
+4.2% CAPD.LN (Capital £1.24, +0.05) -- acquires Australian drilling company Metres Down Under for a total consideration up to ~$16M
+4.1% WRT1V.FH (Wartsila €30.79, +1.21) -- Goldman Sachs upgrade
+3.2% SRT3.GR (Sartorius €259.40, +8.10)
+2.9% INF.LN (Informa £8.88, +0.25) -- acquires Clarion from Blackstone for an enterprise value of £2.24B; to raise gross proceeds of ~£940M to part-fund the acquisition of Clarion
+2.9% SAB.SM (Banco de Sabadell €3.65, +0.10) -- BPCE has acquired stake equivalent to ~7% of the share capital of the company
+2.5% KNEBV.FH (Kone €51.96, +1.28) -- Japanese elevator manufacturers among potential bidders for TK Elevator's European operations -- Bloomberg
+2.2% CKN.LN (Clarkson £52.00, +1.10) -- trading statement
+2.2% TEP.LN (Telecom Plus £8.50, +0.18) -- H1 trading update
+2.2% MRK.GR (Merck KGaA €138.60, +2.95) -- sector move
+1.6% AZN.LN (AstraZeneca £119.22, +1.94) -- AstraZeneca CEO says has what it needs to keep growing beyond 2030 without a major acquisition -- Bloomberg
+0.6% ORNBV.FH (Orion €81.35, +0.50) -- announces agreement with Qilu Pharma Europe for pembrolizumab biosimilar for European market; study results
+0.4% EVK.GR (Evonik Industries €20.78, +0.08) -- Evonik Industries holder RAG Foundation is hiring advisor to help prepare for higher offer from BASF (BAS.GR) -- Bloomberg, citing sources
Notable Decliners
-45.4% ORX.SS (Orexo SEK7.38, -6.14) -- to carry out ~SEK250M rights issue subject to EGM approval; provides a financial update
-40.3% CLBS.LN (Celebrus Technologies £0.58, -0.39) -- H1 trading update
-9.6% ASC.LN (Asos £4.50, -0.48) -- confirms unauthorised customer notification was sent to ASOS customers; does not believe that payment-card information or account passwords, were impacted; website and app operating as normal
-5.4% BESI.NA (BE Semiconductor Industries €191.50, -10.95) -- BofA downgrade
-4.6% APAM.NA (Aperam €40.44, -1.94) -- issues update on Q3 2026 market & financial trends: confirms the Q3 2026 outlook
-4.5% SU.FP (Schneider Electric €262.40, -12.30) -- Shelly Group's board considers €70/share offer price fair and supports the groups's voluntary public tender offer; JPMorgan downgrade
-3.8% WIE.AV (Wienerberger €16.07, -0.63) -- prelim Q3 eanrings
-2.0% HBR.LN (Harbour Energy £2.69, -0.05)
-1.1% FRA.GR (Fraport €60.80, -0.70) -- Barclays downgrade
EU companies reporting tomorrow:
Earnings:
France: Bilendi (ALBLD.FP)
Nordics: Industrivarden (INDU.A.SS), Diamyd Medical (DMYD.B.SS)
UK: Netcall (NET.LN)
Trading Update:
UK: Hollywood Bowl Group (BOWL.LN)
Sales: Clas Ohlson (CLAS.B.SS)
Traffic: Finnair (FIA1S.FH)
CMD/Events: SFC Energy (F3C.GR), Porsche (P911.GR), Adyen (ADYEN.NA) EGM
Data:
Economics:
Denmark Aug Manufacturing Production +0.9% m/m vs consensus +3.7% and prior (5.5%)
Germany Aug Factory Orders (10.6%) m/m vs consensus (1.0%) and prior revised +3.2% from +2.5%
France Aug Industrial Production (0.3%) m/m vs consensus +0.3% and prior revised (0.6%) from (0.4%)
Spain Aug Industrial Production +1.5% y/y vs consensus +2.6% and prior revised +2.5% from +2.3%
Switzerland Sep Unemployment Rate (sa) 3.1% vs consensus 3.1% and prior 3.1%
Germany Sep Construction PMI 43.5 vs consensus 48.0 and prior 48.7
UK Sep Construction PMI 46.1 vs consensus 45.2 and prior 44.3
Markets:
WTI Crude (Nov 26): ($0.94) or (1.05%) to $88.49
€-$ +0.0044 or +0.39% to 1.1267
£-$ +0.0062 or +0.47% to 1.3284
€-£ (0.0007) to 0.8482
S&P 500 +0.83%
Performance year-to-date
FTSE 100: +6.15%
DAX: +3.91%
CAC: (3.49%)
MIB: +14.05%
Stoxx 600: +7.50%
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