Oct 13 ,2026
Synopsis
European equity markets are set to open mostly lower. Follows higher performance on Monday. Asian equities also lower. South Korea selloff intensifying and triggering downside sidecar. Japan, Greater China and Taiwan also under pressure amid broader tech weakness.
AI trade in focus after reports China's CXMT making rapid progress in memory chips revived fears Chinese rivals closing the technology gap. Investors are now questioning heavy AI investment which is no longer funded only by debt but coincides with sharp rise rates. Broadcom's CEO flagged speculative excess. Geopolitics also weighing on sentiment. Russia kept striking Ukrainian energy infrastructure despite Trump's "energy ceasefire," Saudi Arabia reported fresh attacks, and tanker attacks near Hormuz constrain Gulf flows. IMF held 2027 growth forecast steady but warned on debt and energy risks. US data includes small business survey, ADP employment and home sales, ahead of CPI.
Brent near $105 keeping inflation worries alive and yields near multi-decade highs. US bank earnings later will show whether yield surge affecting dealmaking, lending and funding costs, with read-across for European financials. Chancellor Merz said Germany will cut electricity tax to EU minimum. French business uncertainty jumped in September on concerns about fuel prices and a deterioration of the economy. IMF cautioned UK to continue fiscal consolidation and avoid unleashing cost-of-living support measures.
Also on today's agenda, In France, National Assembly debate budget 2027 (state and social security budget bills) scheduled to begin, whilst French unions have called for further strike action. Parliament has 70 days to complete the procedure for the state budget and 50 days for the social security budget. Chancellor Merz speech / Q+A at the BDA Employers' Day. Other federal ministers will also attend the event. In the UK, there are MP questions on energy security and net zero, whilst committee topics include defence at 10:00BST as well as 15:00 (defence minister Streeting), Online Safety Act: implementation and impact at 14:30 (tbc). EU General Affairs Council meets. Norway's ministry of trade and fisheries Myrseth in London (through Thu) to strengthen Norwegian-British cooperation in energy, technology and green transition. Decarbonising the Future conf sees EU's Micallef among the speakers, whilst EU's Roswall gives a keynote.
In central banks, BOE's Green speech at 4:00BST at Atlantic Council at IMF, the same time as ECB's Donnery panellist at event at Bangkok Economic Festival. Former Riksbank governor Ingves speech at 5:00BST at Atlantic Council at IMF. ECB's Elderson panellist at 9:15CET at Friends of Europe Energy and Climate Summit whilst ECB's Lane gives a speech at 19:30BST at pre-Summit dinner ahead of International AI Summit. IMF's latest World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report and OPEC releases monthly oil market report. address at Water Innovation Europe 2026.
European macro data releases include Germany Sep final CPI, UK Sep retail sales monitor - BRC, Netherlands Sep final CPI, Portugal Sep final CPI
In earnings news, LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC.FP) reported Q3 revenue in line with expectations and modest Q3 organic growth amid softness in China, while Christian Dior (CDI.FP) posted a slight y/y decline in 9M sales but remained confident in its outlook. Also in France, Publicis Groupe (PUB.FP) reported Q3 revenue slightly ahead of consensus and confirmed its FY outlook. In DACHs, Givaudan (GIVN.SW) delivered strong Q3 revenue, beating expectations on like-for-like growth, and Sulzer (SUN.SW) reported a solid rise in 9M order intake, reaffirming its FY guidance. Among airports, Zurich Airport (FHZN.SW), Flughafen Wien (FLU.AV) and Fraport (FRA.GR) all issued September traffic numbers.
Politics/Macro/World News
Andy Burnham promises 'serious dialogue' over UK's relationship with EU - The Guardian
UK growth upgraded but energy prices and rates to bite in 2027 - BBC
IMF's Tenreyro Tells UK to 'Stay the Course' on Fiscal Plans - Bloomberg
Digital Minister wants to tax AI sales in Germany - Handelsblatt
Kyiv says Russia hits energy targets despite Trump ceasefire announcement - Reuters
Top company news
Earnings/updates
MC.FP (LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton) -- reports Q3 revenue €18.50B vs consensus €18.45B
GIVN.SW (Givaudan) -- reports Q3 revenue CHF2.09B vs consensus CHF1.99B
GALP.PL (Galp Energia SGPS) -- provides Q3 trading update
FRA.GR (Fraport) -- reports Sep Frankfurt Airport traffic statistics: passengers 6.06M, +1.6 y/y
CDI.FP (Christian Dior) -- Christian Dior reports 9M revenue €57.15B, (2%) vs year-ago €58.09B
SUN.SW (Sulzer) -- reports 9M order intake +1.8% to CHF 2.75B vs consensus CHF2.67B
FHZN.SW (Flughafen Zuerich) -- reports Sep traffic statistics
PUB.FP (Publicis Groupe) -- reports Q3 revenue €3.81B vs consensus €3.76B; confirms FY26 guidance
FLU.AV (Flughafen Wien) -- reports Sep Group total passenger traffic (2.0%) to 4.1M
Also due to report today includes
Earnings:
Nordics: ABG Sundal Collier Holding (ABG.NO)
UK: Bellway (BWY.LN), Bytes Technology Group (BYIT.LN), YouGov (YOU.LN)
Trading Update:
France: Ekinops (EKI.FP)
UK: BP (BP.LN), Greencore Group (GNC.LN), Rio Tinto (RIO.LN), Oxford Instruments (OXIG.LN), Ninety One (N91.LN), Integrafin Holdings (IHP.LN)
Sales: DFDS (DFDS.DC)
CMD/Events: Lonza (LONN.SW), Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW.GR) pre-close call, Ahold (AD.NA) EGM
M&A
NOKIA.FH (Nokia) -- to sell Enterprise Campus Edge business to AURELIUS; price not disclosed
J36.SP (Jardine Matheson Holdings) -- upgrades FY underlying EPS to $5.50-5.65 vs prior guidance $5.33; to acquire the 50% stake in Gammon Construction for £250M (~$330M) cash
MDA.CN (MDA Space) -- CSG enters the space sector through the acquisition of shares resulting in a 9.5% equity position in MDA Space
ACA.FP (Credit Agricole) -- signs agreement for acquisition of IKB Deutsche Industriebank
Healthcare
AZN.LN (AstraZeneca) -- Transcript Intelligence: AstraZeneca at American Society for Bone and Mineral Research Meeting
CYTK (Cytokinetics) -- announces additional data from ACACIA-HCM presented at the HFSA Annual Scientific Meeting 2026
FYB.GR (Formycon) -- and Zydus Lifesciences note FYB206 accepted for review by FDA
Other
TGS.NO (TGS-NOPEC Geophysical Co.) -- to commence Pelotas Sul Phase 2 Multi-client Survey Offshore Brazil
CEZ.CP (CEZ) -- releases statement on Luxembourg court order in proceedings brought by Diag Human SE against the Czech Republic
Key rating changes
Upgrades
TE.FP (Technip Energies) -- to buy from neutral at Goldman Sachs
NWG.LN (NatWest Group) -- to overweight from equal weight at Barclays
GLE.FP (Societe Generale) -- to market perform from underperform at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
SILEX.SS (Silex Microsystems) -- to hold from sell at SEB
SEBA.SS (Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken) -- to market perform from underperform at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
Downgrades
MAERSK.B.DC (Maersk) -- to sell from hold at SEB
ENTRA.NO (Entra ASA) -- to neutral from buy at Sparebank 1 Markets
ORSTED.DC (Ørsted) -- to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs
GRG.LN (Greggs) -- to neutral from buy at UBS
Initiations
YPSN.SW (Ypsomed Holding) -- buy at Berenberg
JUN3.GR (Jungheinrich) -- neutral at UBS
SPIE.FP (SPIE) -- sector perform at RBC Capital Markets
EVD.GR (CTS Eventim) -- neutral at Goldman Sachs
Others
ZURN.SW (Zurich Insurance Group) -- reinstated neutral at Goldman Sachs
PST.IM (Poste Italiane) -- resumed overweight at Morgan Stanley; prior rating was equal-weight
Data
Nikkei (2.00%) to 67650.35
Hang Seng (0.01%) to 24268.72
Shanghai Composite +0.26% to 3807.05
S&P futures (10.5) vs prior close of 7858.0
€-$ +0.0025 or +0.22% to 1.1181
$-¥ (0.37) or (0.23%) to 158.26
€-¥ (0.04) or (0.02%) to 176.93
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