Oct 26 ,2026
Synopsis
European equity markets set to open broadly higher following last week's losses when the Stoxx Europe 600 closed down (1.39%) for the week. European markets spent the week under pressure from French fiscal stress, energy spikes and growing doubts over the AI investment boom.
Some good news for France after Moody's held France's credit rating steady. The sovereign debt rating was maintained at Aa3. Treasury yields pulling back amid rally in French OAT futures. Oil pulling back from one-month high as expectations of a resumption of US-Iran conflict continue to build. President Trump repeated he is nearing decision on whether to resume hostilities unless Iran agrees to a deal. Diplomacy remains at a standstill with Iran sticking to its demands for reopening Strait of Hormuz and refusing to discuss nuclear file. Lot of discussion about economic ramifications with Iran threatening targets across Middle East if it is attacked.
In other developments, pre-market trading in Brazilian assets signaling volatile Monday session following Lula's surprise election victory.
Central bank decisions also in focus this week with Fed, ECB and BoJ updates this week, though all three are expected to leave policy unchanged. RBNZ and BOC both expected to hike.
European macro data releases out today include Germany Oct business climate - Ifo, Spain Sep PPI, UK Oct distributive trades - CBI, Sweden Sep PPI. Finland Sep PPI comes in at +9.8% y/y vs consensus +7.8% and prior +7.3%.
In central banks, ECB's Elderson speech at 7:00CET at Finance and Biodiversity Day at 17th meeting of the Conf. of the Parties to the CBD (COP17). Bundesbank's Lienenkämper speech at 10:00CET at Conf. on the Regulation of Securities Institutions in the Capital Markets Union. Bundesbank's Köhler-Geib panellist at 18:50CET at AI Week Frankfurt. Bank of Italy's Angelini opening remarks at Africa Growth and Opportunity: Research in Action 2026 Conf (AGORA 26). Chancellor Merz begins a visit to Singapore, Japan, and South Korea (through Fri). In the UK, immigration kicks-off MP's topics before they debate the performance of the Royal Mail and the emerging risks of advanced AI. Committee topics include COP31 at 14:45GMT. EU's Kallas attends the E5 defence ministers' meeting
A relatively quiet Monday for earnings, with Galp (GALP.PL) among the main mover, beating Q3 expectations and raising FY26 EBITDA and operating cash flow guidance. Galp and Moeve also confirmed they have ended talks on a potential downstream combination On further M&A, Frasers Group (FRAS.LN) confirmed it has crossed the 50% ownership threshold in Hugo Boss (BOSS.GR), a significant development that brings consolidation effects onto Frasers' balance sheet. Barclays (BARC.LN) attracted weekend speculation in the Mail on Sunday suggesting its low valuation could make it a takeover target. . In healthcare, a busy ESMO congress is generating newsflow, with AstraZeneca (AZN.LN) presenting multiple positive datasets across bladder cancer and gastric cancer, while Amgen (AMGN) reported strong survival data for Imdelltra in small cell lung cancer. Notable broker moves include Telefonica (TEF.SM) cut to Underweight at JPMorgan, Munich Re (MUV2.GR) downgraded at BNP Paribas Exane.
Note Austrian markets closed for National Day.
Politics/Macro/World News
France
Iran
Trump nearing decision on whether to strike Iran:
EU
UK
Poorest pensioners set to be shielded from income tax in budget (Times )
Germany
Germany To Tap Ukrainian Tech With Missile Purchase (FT )
Brazil
Lula wins Brazil presidential election
Brazilian markets brace for steep losses following Lula's surprise election victory:
Serbia
Celebrations in Serbia after veteran ruler Vučić loses election to student-led protest movement (BBC )
Top company news
Earnings/updates
PNL.NA (PostNL) -- reports Q3 revenue €768M vs year-ago €762M; confirms FY26 outlook
SPSN.SW Swiss Prime Site targets Funds from operations (FFO I) per share to grow by more than 15% by 2030; raises 2026 guidance -- CMD
GALP.PL (Galp Energia SGPS) -- reports Q3 RCA net income €682M vs consensus €634M; rasies FY26 RCA EBITDA and OCF guidance
Also reporting today
Earnings: Nordics: Alleima (ALLEI.SS)
Southern Europe: Sogefi (SGF.IM), Iberpapel Gestion (IBG.SM)
UK: Bioventix (BVXP.LN)
Trading Update:
Benelux: MotorK (MTRK.NA)
France: Verimatrix (VMX.FP)
Southern Europe: Puig Brands (PUIG.SM), Distribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion (DIA.SM)
M&A
GALP.PL (Galp) -- and Moeve confrim they ended negotiations on a potential downstream combination
BARC.LN (Barclays) -- Given its low share price, someone may try to buy Barclays - Mail on Sunday
AAL.LN (Anglo American) -- MMG offers EC new remedies with regards to purchase of Anglo American's nickel
BOSS.GR (Hugo Boss), FRAS.LN (Frasers Group) -- provides update on investment in Hugo Boss; completes 50% threshold transaction, includes details & consolidation effects
business - Bloomberg
KNEBV.FH (Kone) -- seeking to retain TK Elevator operations in Spain, Portugal - FT
MUX.GR (Mutares SE & Co KGaA) -- divests Stuart to Quiver; terms undisclosed
SIKA.SW (Sika Group) -- Sika acquires Dubai-based manufacturer of waterproofing membranes Duproof; price not disclosed
ENDUR.NO (Endúr) -- subsidiary BMO to acquire 100% of the shares in Notech AS
ELV.AU (Elevra Lithium) -- completes sale of rights and interests in Ewoyaa lithium project to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt
603799.CH (Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt) -- completes acquisition of Atlantic Lithium Singapore from Piedmont Lithium
EVR.GA (I. Kloukinas-I. Lappas Construction & Commerce) -- CrediaBank and Evropi merger expected to complete on or ~30-Oct; Evropi's shares last day of trading on Euronext Athens is 26-Oct (post EU close 23-Oct)
Veritas Capital exploring sale of Chromalloy at potential $10B+ valuation -- Bloomberg
Healthcare
AMGN (Amgen) -- announces IMDELLTRA in combination with IMFINZI reduced risk of death by 58% in first-line extensive stage small cell lung cancer
ABBV (AbbVie) -- announces FDA approval of subcutaneous induction regimen for SKYRIZI (risankizumab-rzaa) for adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's Disease
AZN.LN (AstraZeneca) -- announces perioperative IMFINZI (durvalumab) plus neoadjuvant enfortumab vedotin reduced risk of recurrence by 49% and risk of death by 42% in muscle-invasive bladder cancer
AZN.LN (AstraZeneca) -- presents, publishes results from SAFFRON Phase III trial of TAGRISSO
AZN.LN (AstraZeneca) -- reports results from Phase III CLARITY-Gastric01 trial of Sone-Ve at ESMO
REGN (Regeneron) -- presents new longer-term data on Libtayo at ESMO
NOVN.SW (Novartis) -- Transcript Intelligence: Novartis at ACTRIMS & ECTRIMS Meeting
NOVO.B.DC (Novo Nordisk) -- FDA approves Awiqli for pediatric patients 10 years and older
ROP.SW (Roche Holding) -- presents interim Phase III data showing Sefaxersen significantly reduced proteinuria in people with IgA Nephropathy (IgAN)
ROP.SW (Roche Holding) -- Genentech presents, publishes pivotal results from Phase III Krascendo 1 study of divarasib
BAYN.GR (Bayer AG) -- Bayer presents late-breaking data on darolutamide at ESMO
GMAB.DC (Genmab) -- presents updated follow-up analyses from trial of petosemtamab at ESMO
IDIA.SW (Idorsia) -- to pursue new development program for daridorexant in ASD; program details expected in H1 of 2027 following discussions with health authorities
NANO.FP (Nanobiotix) -- presents updated results from Study 1100 of JNJ-1900 (NBTXR3) at ESMO
HNSA.SS (Hansa Biopharma) -- announces data from the European post-authorization efficacy and safety (PAES) study of Idefirix (imlifidase)
BINV.SS (BioInvent International) -- BioInvent International's BI-1808 and KEYTRUDA induce durable responses in heavily pretreated platinum-resistant ovarian cancer
Other
BORR.NO (Borr Drilling) -- Prospector 5 drilling rig sinks; five people remain unaccounted for
BP to make $350M payment to Louisiana to resolve 2015 Deepwater Horizon Economic Damages Settlement
Estimated weekend box office revenues in US, Canada $98.2M, +29.6% y/y - Box Office Mojo
RF.FP (Eurazeo) -- board appoints Christophe Bavière as Chairman of the Executive board and CEO
Key rating changes
Upgrades
AVIO.IM (Avio) -- to buy from hold at Berenberg
HIAB.FH (Hiab) -- to buy from hold at SEB
NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro) -- to hold from sell at ABG Sundal Collier
NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro) -- to hold from sell at SEB
ORNBV.FH (Orion) -- to buy from hold at Jefferies
Downgrades
DB1.GR (Deutsche Börse) -- to neutral from outperform at Oddo
NHY.NO (Norsk Hydro) -- to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs
SAAB.B.SS (Saab) -- to hold from buy at DNB Carnegie
SCA.B.SS (Svenska Cellulosa) -- to hold from buy at Pareto
SCA.B.SS (Svenska Cellulosa) -- to hold from buy at Jefferies
MUV2.GR (Munich Re) -- to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas Exane
TEF.SM (Telefonica) -- to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan
Initiations
BC.IM (Brunello Cucinelli) -- outperform at CLSA
Data
Nikkei (0.80%) to 62189.65
Hang Seng +0.51% to 23210.30
Shanghai Composite +0.00% to 3690.50
S&P futures +6.0 vs prior close of 7659.8
€-$ (0.0007) or (0.06%) to 1.1217
$-¥ (0.05) or (0.03%) to 156.93
€-¥ (0.18) or (0.10%) to 176.02
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